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Suppression Forecast (FWS)

Issued by Marquette, MI (MQT)

                            
709 
FNUS73 KMQT 132002
FWSMQT

Spot Forecast for Seney wilderness...USFWS Seney NWR
National Weather Service Marquette MI
402 PM EDT Mon Aug 13 2018

Forecast is based on forecast start time of 1600 EDT on August 13. 
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...Colder weather coming for Tuesday along with a wind shift.
A cold front will move through the area Tuesday morning. Unfortunately, 
there is not a lot of moisture to work with and there will be only a small
chance for rain Tuesday afternoon. High temperatures will be reached around 
noon with temperatures slowly falling in the afternoon with north winds. 
Cool conditions are expected Tuesday night into Wednesday. 

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Clear. 
LAL.................1. 
Temperature.........Min 63. 
RH..................Max 100 percent. 
33-foot winds.......Southwest winds 5 to 10 mph. 
20-foot winds.......Southwest winds up to 8 mph. 
Mixing height.......100-1100 ft AGL. 
Smoke dispersal.....Poor to fair (1900-13300 knot-ft). 
Haines Index........3 to 5 OR or very low potential for large plume 
                    dominated fire growth to or moderate potential 
                    for large plume dominated fire growth. 
Rainfall amount.....0.00 inches. 

TIME (EDT)      8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM   6 AM   
Sky (%).........1      8      16     23     24     26     
Weather cov.....                                          
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   
Tstm cov........                                          
LAL.............1      1      1      1      1      1      
Temp............76     69     65     64     63     63     
RH..............71     88     100    100    100    100    
33 ft wind......S 10   S 10   S 9    SW 8   SW 8   SW 6   
20 ft wind......S 8    S 8    S 7    SW 6   SW 6   SW 5   
Wind gust.......10     10                                 
Mix hgt (ft)....1100   400    200    300    300    200    
Haines index....4      5      4      3      4      4      
SDspl kt-ft/100013     6      3      5      4      3      

.TUESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy. A slight chance of rain showers 
                    and thunderstorms by mid afternoon. Chance of 
                    precipitation 20 percent. 
LAL.................1 until 1500, then 2. 
Temperature.........Max 81. 
RH..................Min 60 percent. 
33-foot winds.......Southwest winds 5 to 8 mph shifting to the 
                    northwest 7 to 12 mph by late morning. Gusty 
                    and erratic winds expected near thunderstorms 
                    by mid afternoon. 
20-foot winds.......Southwest winds up to 6 mph shifting to the 
                    northwest 6 to 10 mph by late morning. 
Mixing height.......300-2200 ft AGL increasing to 2100-2600 ft AGL 
                    in the afternoon. 
Smoke dispersal.....Poor to good (3800-33300 knot-ft). 
Haines Index........2 to 4 OR or very low potential for large plume 
                    dominated fire growth to or low potential for 
                    large plume dominated fire growth. 
Rainfall amount.....0.00 inches. 

TIME (EDT)      8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM   6 PM   
Sky (%).........27     30     32     35     42     50     
Weather cov.....                            S CHC  S CHC  
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   RNSHWR RNSHWR 
Tstm cov........                            S CHC  S CHC  
LAL.............1      1      1      1      2      2      
Temp............66     75     80     80     77     72     
RH..............96     73     61     62     63     69     
33 ft wind......SW 8   SW 8   NW 9   NW 11  NW 11  NW 12  
20 ft wind......SW 6   SW 6   NW 7   NW 9   NW 9   NW 10  
Wind gust.......              10     11     11     12     
Mix hgt (ft)....300    1300   2200   2600   2500   2200   
Haines index....4      3      3      3      2      2      
SDspl kt-ft/10004      16     24     28     30     33     

.TUESDAY NIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy then becoming mostly cloudy then 
                    becoming partly cloudy. A slight chance of rain 
                    showers through midnight. Chance of showers 20 
                    percent. 
LAL.................1. 
Temperature.........Min 55. 
RH..................Max 95 percent. 
33-foot winds.......North winds 5 to 10 mph. 
20-foot winds.......North winds up to 8 mph. 
Mixing height.......400-1800 ft AGL. 
Smoke dispersal.....Poor to good (3900-30900 knot-ft). 
Haines Index........2 to 4 OR or very low potential for large plume 
                    dominated fire growth to or low potential for 
                    large plume dominated fire growth. 
Rainfall amount.....0.00 inches. 

TIME (EDT)      8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM   6 AM   
Sky (%).........59     56     58     66     70     67     
Weather cov.....S CHC  S CHC  S CHC                       
Weather type....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR NONE   NONE   NONE   
Tstm cov........                                          
LAL.............1      1      1      1      1      1      
Temp............68     62     58     57     56     56     
RH..............72     84     91     91     94     95     
33 ft wind......N 10   N 10   N 10   N 9    N 9    N 8    
20 ft wind......N 8    N 8    N 8    N 7    N 7    N 6    
Wind gust.......10     10                                 
Mix hgt (ft)....1800   900    600    900    400    800    
Haines index....2      2      3      4      4      4      
SDspl kt-ft/100031     15     9      11     5      7      

$$
Forecaster...Michels
Requested by...Josh Haen
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 1814390.5/MQT
.DELDT 08/13/18