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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Marquette, MI (MQT)

FXUS63 KMQT 211916

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
316 PM EDT Sat Sep 21 2019

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 310 PM EDT SAT SEP 21 2019

Upper air pattern consists of a deep 500 mb trough over the Rockies 
and a strong ridge across the ern half of the U.S. this morning. The 
trough moves east into the northern and central plains tonight and 
into the upper Great Lakes on Sun. Tough forecast for the first part 
of this period as convection has been starting to break out, but 
models are all over the place with coverage and qpf. Will go with a 
drier solution for this forecast period for pops as there has been 
scattered stuff going on all day and hints of some of the models is 
that the area gets split as the cold front goes through. Overall, 
highest pops in there are chance category and then the frontal zone 
slowly stalls out with chance to slight chance pops across the south 
and east on Sun.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 315 PM EDT SAT SEP 21 2019

Shortwave energy will merge closing off an upper low over northern 
MN Sunday evening with the upper low moving eastward across Lake 
Superior Sunday night into Monday. With trends towards a stronger 
upper feature...a round of showers with the upper low looks more 
likely for the central and east. Rainfall amounts will be light.
85H temperatures will lower back into the 2-6 C range on Monday 
ensuring a cooler more seasonable day compared to our recent stretch 
of unseasonable warmth. The cool down will be short-lived with warm 
advection boosting temperatures back above normal on Tuesday. Next 
upper trough moving through Central Canada and the northern Plains 
will wind up a fall like surface low over over far northern Ontario 
on Wednesday. Expect a round of warm advection precipitation Tuesday 
night ahead of the upper trough followed by scattered showers with 
the cold front on Wednesday.  

Temperatures will remain around normal for the Thursday/Friday time 
period. By the end of the week...shortwave energy ejecting out of 
the southwestern U.S. upper low will approach the western Great Lakes 
with additional rain chances.

All guidance continues to suggest another period of unusually warm 
early fall weather in the 7-10 day time period as we flip the 
calendar from September to October.

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 100 PM EDT SAT SEP 21 2019

Confidence is low in this forecast for how convection will evolve as 
it tries to move into the area this afternoon and tonight. Right 
now, think there will still be two waves with one early this 
afternoon across the west and then after dark. WIll be VFR through 
the period at CMX. IWD will go from MVFR to VFR this afternoon and 
then MVFR tonight with showers moving through. SAW will go from VFR 
down to MVFR tonight and to IFR as showers move through.

.MARINE...(For the 4 PM Lake Superior forecast issuance)
Issued at 310 PM EDT SAT SEP 21 2019

Winds will stay 15 to 25 knots through Sun with a cold front moving 
through on Sun. The wind then stays under 20 knots through Tue 
before increasing to 20 to 30 knots Tue night through Thu. Drier air 
will be moving into the area Sun.

Upper Michigan...
  Beach Hazards Statement until 9 PM EDT this evening for MIZ014.

Lake Superior...
Lake Michigan...