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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Melbourne, FL (MLB)

FXUS62 KMLB 201505

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
1005 AM EST Tue Feb 20 2018


RAP40 analysis shows a strong high pres ridge over the W Atlc/Deep 
South dominating the lcl WX pattern. Anticyclonic flow around the 
base of the ridge generating a brisk E/SE flow acrs central FL, as 
confirmed by the lcl wind profilers.  Upstream moisture is lacking 
with H100-H70 mean RH values AOB 60pct, while mid lvl capping 
remains quite strong with H85-H70 lapse rates arnd 5.5C/KM over the 
I-4 Corridor decreasing to arnd 2.0C/KM SE of Lake-O.  Mid/upr lvl 
analysis reveals H85-H30 omega/vorticity and H30-H20 divergence 
fields that are largely flat with little moisture...H85-H50 dewpoint 
depressions arnd 20C...H70-H50 btwn 20-25C.   

Mild WX pattern will continue this aftn with warm temps and 
negligible precip chances. A few sprinkles psbl from brief, low-
topped coastal shras, but no measurable precip expected. Max temps 
in the L80s along the coast, M80s interior. 


.AVIATION...Thru 21/12Z.
Sfc Winds: Thru 20/18Z...coastal sites E/SE 9-13KTS...interior sites 
7-11KTS. Btwn 21/18Z-21/24Z...coastal sites E/SE 10-14KTS with G18-
22KTS...interior sites E/SE 8-12KTS. Btwn 21/00Z-21/03Z...coastal 
sites bcmg E/SE 8-12KTS...interior sites bcmg E/SE 6-10KTS. Btwn 
21/03Z-21/06Z...coastal sites bcmg E/SE 5-9KTS...interior sites bcmg 
E/SE 3-6KTS. 

Vsbys/WX/Cigs: Cigs AOA FL120. Aft 21/07Z...N of KISM-KTIX areas 
MVFR/lcl IFR vsbys in BR. 


Poor boating conditions as a high pres ridge extending from Bermuda 
into the Deep South maintains a moderate to fresh E/SE breeze over 
the lcl Atlc waters. Lcl data buoy/C-MAN network indicating 
sustained winds arnd 15KTS with ocnl gusts near 20KTS. While not 
strict criteria for a Small Craft Advisory, short wave pds AOB 6sec 
areawide are certainly generating rough conditions, especially south 
of Sebastian Inlet with the brisk SE flow placing the Treasure Coast 
waters in the shadow of Grand Bahama Island. Will hoist a short term 
SCA for the Gulf Stream waters from Brevard County south, cautionary 
statements elsewhere.  


Record warm minimum temps and the year set:

              Feb 20          Feb 21           Feb 22

Daytona Beach 66-1961        68-1989          69-2008
Orlando Intl  69-1961        68-1989          69-1945
Sanford       68-1961        66-2002          68-2008
Melbourne     68-1961        70-1989          69-2003
Vero Beach    72-1961        72-1961          73-1961
Ft. Pierce    73-1961        73-1961          73-1961





Short Term/Aviation...Bragaw
Long Term/Impact WX...Glitto