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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Melbourne, FL (MLB)

FXUS62 KMLB 131842

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
242 PM EDT Sat Oct 13 2018

Tonight and Sunday...A seabreeze boundary indicated on satellite 
over the Treasure Cst may help spark a few showers over the 
Treasure coast areas into dusk and will keep a small chc of 
showers through nightfall over the immediate coast and adjacent 
waters in proximity to the weakening boundary. Temperatures will 
make it into the U60s to L70s areawide overnight with partly 
cloudy to mostly clear skies and light winds. 

The weakening frontal boundary over the Gulf Stream will 
dissipate on Sunday. Moisture will return to the area as onshore 
flow re-develops during the day. A better rain chance can be 
expected by Sunday afternoon over areas generally south of 
Orlando as suitable moisture combines with some afternoon heating 
to produce some showers. Will keep a small chc of isold thunder 
along the Treasure Coast and Lake Okeechobee, where better 
boundary interactions and slightly higher moisture should exist.
Highs will make it well into the 80s to L90s.  

Mon-Tue (Modified Previous)...Winds remain out of the E/SE into 
early next week as high pressure shifts offshore the mid-Atlantic 
coast and its ridge axis remains north of the area. Moisture 
associated with the old front will continue to lift back northward 
Monday with shower chances remaining highest (30%) along and north 
of the I-4 corridor. As the band of deeper moisture lifts north of 
the area late Monday and Tuesday, and ridging aloft remains firmly 
in place across Florida, rain chances will remain low, at or below 

Strengthening onshore flow will return temps to above normal values, 
with highs reaching the upper 80s to low 90s. Overnight lows will 
be in the low to mid 70s. 

Wed-Fri (Previous)...Mid/upper level ridge remains in place across 
Florida, as a weakening frontal boundary gradually pushes toward the 
area and stalls near to north of the Cape into late week. Moisture 
associated with this boundary will lead to rising rain chances into 
Thu/Fri especially across northern portions of central Florida, with 
PoPs increasing up to 40-50 percent. Highs will still reach the 
upper 80s to low 90s Wednesday, with increasing showers and cloud 
cover into late week keeping max temps closer to normal in the mid 
to upper 80s. Lows will remain mild in the low to mid 70s.  


VFR conditions will prevail most sites with some sct-bkn 
evening and overnight cloudiness possible along with with some 
isold shra along and south of the stalled frontal boundary near 
FL035-045 FM VRB-FPR-SUA tonight and into Sunday. 


Tonight and Sunday...WV heights are trending lower with decaying 
swell trend still occurring. WV modeling was about a foot too high
on short term guidance and have adjusted seas to 3 ft or less 
over the waters with only about 2 ft near the coast. This wl 
continue into Sunday as well. 

Mon-Thu...High pressure near the mid-Atlantic coast will shift 
offshore, with its axis remaining north of the area through 
Wednesday. This will keep an onshore wind flow across the waters 
with E/SE winds up to around 10-15 knots at times. Seas will range
from 2-4 feet through the period. 

Winds will briefly subside late Wednesday into early Thursday as a 
weakening front approaches from the north before onshore flow 
restrengthens late in the week as high pressure builds across the 
eastern US.


DAB  68  88  75  88 /   0  20  10  30 
MCO  70  91  74  91 /   0  20  10  20 
MLB  73  89  76  89 /  10  30  20  20 
VRB  72  90  75  88 /  20  30  20  20 
LEE  67  90  73  91 /   0  10  10  30 
SFB  69  90  74  91 /   0  20  10  30 
ORL  71  90  75  90 /   0  20  10  20 
FPR  71  88  75  88 /  20  30  20  20 





SHORT TERM...Pendergrast
LONG TERM....Ulrich