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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Melbourne, FL (MLB)

                            
000
FXUS62 KMLB 270834
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
434 AM EDT Sun May 27 2018

.DISCUSSION...
...Slight Risk of Severe Weather and Tornadoes...
...Periods of Heavy Rain Today...

Today and tonight...The center of developing tropical cyclone 
Alberto will reach his closest point of approach to ECFL later 
today. Banded rain squalls containing periods of heavy rain, gusty
winds, and rotating storms, containing possible brief tornadoes, 
will pivot northward into the region from the south through the 
morning and into afternoon. The main time window for squalls will 
be from south to north this morning through around 4 PM. It will 
be a breezy, cloudy and wet day for sure. 

Available guidance suggests low level directional shear within 
these bands will be capable of supporting rotation and possible
severe weather including: tornadoes and damaging wind gusts. 
Analogues drawn from the case history of numerous tropical 
cyclones moving over the eastern Gulf have produced damaging 
tornadoes within outer rain bands over central Florida. The Flood
Watch for all of the area will remain in effect into Monday as
periods of heavy rain will accumulate, causing hazards for
transportation and possible property damage in some areas.
Numerous showers this evening should abate after around 10 PM 
with most activity shifting offshore 

Mon...A very moist airmass will persist in a deep S/SW flow across 
the area Monday as Alberto eventually makes landfall along the 
northern Gulf coast. There is some indication in some of the models 
of drier mid level air wrapping in to the southeast of Alberto that 
may makes it's way into northern areas. This may allow for a little 
more heating and delayed start to convection north of the Treasure 
Coast and Okeechobee County. However enough moisture will still 
exist for numerous showers and storms to develop across the area 
through the afternoon, with rain chances around 70 percent for 
Memorial Day. Heavy rainfall and localized flooding issues will 
continue to be a concern with any heavier showers and storms that 
move over the same area, with a Flood Watch continuing across the 
area. 

Tue-Fri...Alberto will weaken as it continues northward after 
landfall along the northern Gulf Coast. However, a moist airmass of 
2+ inch PW values will persist across the area through late week. 
This will continue elevated rain chances through Friday, ranging 
from 60-70 percent on Tuesday to 50-60 percent through Friday. 
Greatest coverage of showers and storms will occur during the 
afternoon hours, with locally heavy rainfall still being a concern. 
Highs will range from the mid-upper 80s, with low 90s possible 
across portions of the area on Friday. 

&&

.AVIATION...
Low cloud conditions along with likely to considerable showers and
embedded storms will bring reduced ceiling and visibility 
conditions for much of the day. VFR conds will be a rarity through
28/02Z. Squalls will bring sfc wind Gusts near 35 to 40 knots and
vis only 1-2SM.  

&&

.MARINE...
Today and Tonight...Deteriorating marine conditions this morning
into the remainder of the day with showers and squalls containing
wind gusts of 40 knots and blinding rain. Gradient winds 25 to 30
knots with occasional gusts to gale force offshore. Not a safe 
day to be over the open Atlantic waters due to a plethora of 
hazards associated with a tropical cyclone off the Florida west 
coast. A Small Craft Advisory in effect areawide.

Mon...Poor to hazardous boating conditions look to continue into 
Memorial Day. SCA has been extended for the offshore waters through 
Monday evening for southerly winds around 20 knots and seas up to 7 
feet. Nearshore, winds will range from 15-20 knots with seas 4-6 
feet. 

Tue-Thu...Winds and seas will then continue to gradually improve 
through mid week, with southerly winds decreasing to 10-15 knots and 
seas falling to 5 feet or less.  


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  82  74  85  73 / 100  60  70  50 
MCO  83  73  86  73 / 100  60  70  50 
MLB  84  76  86  75 / 100  70  70  50 
VRB  85  77  86  74 / 100  70  70  50 
LEE  83  75  86  74 / 100  60  70  40 
SFB  82  74  86  73 / 100  60  70  50 
ORL  82  73  86  73 / 100  60  70  50 
FPR  85  75  86  74 / 100  70  70  50 

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Flood Watch through Monday evening for Coastal Volusia County-
     Indian River-Inland Volusia County-Martin-Northern Brevard 
     County-Northern Lake County-Okeechobee-Orange-Osceola-
     Seminole-Southern Brevard County-Southern Lake County-St. 
     Lucie.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for Flagler 
     Beach to Volusia-Brevard County Line 0-20 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Monday for Volusia-Brevard 
     County Line to Sebastian Inlet 0-20 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Monday for Sebastian Inlet 
     to Jupiter Inlet 20-60 nm-Volusia-Brevard County Line to 
     Sebastian Inlet 20-60 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Monday for Sebastian Inlet 
     to Jupiter Inlet 0-20 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Monday for Flagler Beach to 
     Volusia-Brevard County Line 20-60 nm.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Pendergrast
LONG TERM....Weitlich