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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Melbourne, FL (MLB)

FXUS62 KMLB 140115

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
915 PM EDT Sat Oct 13 2018

An H100-H70 moisture band associated with a stalled frontal boundary 
over south FL has its northern boundary draped over the Treasure 
Coast/Lake-O region this evng...S of a line from Vero Beach to the 
north shore of Lake-O, mean RH thru the lyr is btwn 70-80pct, 
diminishing to blo 60pct north a line from Sebastian Inlet to the 
south shore of Lake-K. Evng RAOBs show moisture has crept up a touch 
over the past 24hrs acrs the FL peninsula, but remains too low to 
expand PoPs any farther north than they already are...KXMR/KTBW 
values btwn 1.00"-1.25"...increasing to arnd 1.75" at 

Central FL is under the influence of an H100-H70 col separating a 
weak anticyclone over the FL panhandle/NE GOMex, and the Bermuda 
Ridge axis over the Nrn Bahamas. Weak pgrad btwn these two ridges is 
generating a lgt/vrbl flow thru the low/mid lvls...E/SE AOB 5KTS 
over the Treasure Coast/Lake-O region, backing to N/NE AOB 5KTS 
along the I-4 Corridor. Lcl convergence bands down wind of the Nrn 
Bahamas have allowed periodic shras to dvlp off the Treasure Coast 
and push onshore, although coverage has been isold and impact 

Given the deeper moisture over the srn counties, as well as the more 
SErly low/mid lvl wind fields (albeit weak), am inclined to keep a 
slgt chc of shras in for the Treasure Coast/Lake-O region overnight. 
Again, these will have negligible impact as H70 temps btwn 10-11C 
suggest strong mid lvl thermal capping that would require any 
convective columns to have significant dynamic support in order to 
break (which is notably absent. Min temps will reflect a mixture of 
lower sfc dewpoints to the north and the weak onshore flow... 
interior temps dropping into the M/U60s, immediate coastal temps in 
the U60s/L70s. 


.AVIATION...Thru 15/00Z.
Sfc Winds: Thru 14/04Z...W of KMLB-KOBE E/NE 7-11KTS bcmg N/NE AOB 
3KTS...E of KMLB-KOBE E/NE 8-12KTS bcmg E/NE 3-5KTS. Btwn 14/12Z-
14/15Z...bcmg E/SE 6-10KTS. Btwn 14/18Z-14/21Z...N of KMLB-KISM 
bcmg E/NE 6-10KTS.

Vsbys/WX/Cigs: Thru 14/12Z...prevailing VFR all sites...coastal 
sites S of KMLB ocnl SCT-BKN035-050 slgt chc brief MVFR shras. Btwn 
14/12Z-14/18Z...E of KDAB-KSEF slgt chc MVFR shras...E of KTIX-KOBE 
chc MVFR shras. Aft 14/18Z...areas CIGS btwn FL040-060...S of KDAB-
KLEE slight chc MVFR shras...S of KMLB-KGIF chc MVFR shras...S of 
KVRB-KOBE chc MVFR shras/IFR tsras.


Tranquil boating conds overnight as a weak high pres ridge over the 
Deep South/NE GOMex generates a light to gentle NErly breeze over 
the lcl Atlc. Lcl buoy network shows steady state seas over the past 
24hrs...AOB 2FT nearshore and 2-3FT offshore. No sig changes 
necessary with the evng update.