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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Melbourne, FL (MLB)

                            
000
FXUS62 KMLB 171434
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
1034 AM EDT Sat Aug 17 2019

.DISCUSSION...
Cloud cover northwest of I-4 is limiting heating and latest hi-res
model guidance is indicating this may lead to lower overall
coverage of showers and afternoon storms over Lake and Volusia 
counties. However farther south across much of the rest of east 
central Florida, enough sunshine is expected to allow temperatures
to reach the low 90s leading to greater daytime instability. 
Morning sounding at the Cape came in with PW value around 1.7 
inches, but models indicate there should be some additional 
moistening in the low level southwest flow through the afternoon. 
This should be sufficient for scattered showers and storms to
develop this afternoon, with this activity moving northeastward 
across the region and offshore through sunset. 

Have increased rain chances to around 60 percent across Okeechobee
County and the Treasure Coast where greater heating and late day 
boundary interactions with the east coast sea breeze are more 
likely, which should enhance convection over these areas. 
Otherwise, kept PoPs around 50 percent elsewhere. Main storm 
threats will be frequent lightning and gusty winds. Storm motion 
will be a little faster today around 15 to 20 knots, which should 
lower the localized heavy rainfall threat. However, with the 
saturated ground conditions even a quick 1-2 inches could cause 
additional standing water issues across the area, especially 
toward the coast. 

&&

.AVIATION...Mainly VFR with tempo IFR/MVFR conditions in scattered
showers and storms that will develop and move northeast across the
area this afternoon. Greatest potential for convection will be
near to southeast of the I-4 corridor where greater heating will
occur. 

&&

.MARINE...A gentle to moderate S-SW breeze today weakens and 
backs slightly tonight as the ridge axis begins to lift north into
the local waters south of Sebastian Inlet. Seas 1-2FT near shore 
and 2-3FT offshore today subsiding to 2FT or less tonight. The 
risk for strong offshore-moving storms continues this afternoon 
and early this evening, especially north of SIPF1, where SW 
steering winds will be a little stronger.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  89  73  90  73 /  50  20  50  30 
MCO  90  74  92  76 /  50  20  50  20 
MLB  90  75  91  75 /  50  20  40  30 
VRB  91  73  92  73 /  60  20  30  30 
LEE  86  74  91  75 /  50  20  50  20 
SFB  90  73  93  75 /  50  20  50  20 
ORL  90  74  93  76 /  50  20  50  20 
FPR  91  74  91  74 /  60  20  20  30 

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

Weitlich/Spratt