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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Melbourne, FL (MLB)

FXUS62 KMLB 160838

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
438 AM EDT Thu Aug 16 2018


Today...The day will start with mostly clear skies across the inland 
areas of east central Florida and partly cloudy for Lake and Volusia 
counties due to residual clouds from overnight showers. A western 
Atlantic high pressure will be stretching westward towards central 
Florida today, lifting north throughout the day. Drier air north of 
the Greater Antilles and over the Bahamas is expected to reach the 
local area today and tonight. PWAT forecast values from the GFS 
indicate an average of 1.6 inches for today, dropping even more 
tomorrow. Today is forecast to be another transition day, similar to 
yesterday, with limited coverage of showers and thunderstorms. These 
will concentrate from Osceola and Brevard counties and will move 
generally north. Sea breeze interaction with outflow boundaries will 
trigger additional storms, which should last through the early 
evening hours. Temperatures will reach the low 90s and in 
combination with high humidity, heat indexes will reach the low 
100s. Stay hydrated and take frequent breaks if outside.

Tonight...After the dissipation of storms in the early evening, 
skies will clear and low temperatures will drop to the low to mid 

Fri...Deep layer high pressure will produce subsidence and drying
and result in much below normal rain chances for mid August. Will
hold onto a small 20 PoP in the afternoon over the interior. Max
temps will be lower 90s coast and low to mid 90s interior.

Sat-Wed...Mid level trough will redevelop across the eastern 
CONUS this weekend. That will push a sfc trough into the southeast
U.S and weaken the mid level ridge and its suppression. The low 
level ridge axis will slip south across central FL and moisture 
will gradually increase. Rain chances will remain below normal 
Saturday especially across north/central sections with highest 
chances (30-40 percent) around Lake Okeechobee. Rain/storm
coverage will return to climatology (30-50 percent) Sun-Wed. High
temperatures will continue to reach the low 90s over most areas, 
but mid 90s expected Saturday over the north interior due to lack
of clouds and precip.


VFR conditions will prevail for all TAF sites this morning. For this 
afternoon, lower coverage of SHRA/TSRA than previous days is 
expected and it should be limited for KMCO, KMLB and northern sites. 
Around sunset, showers should dissipate and VFR conditions should 
return for all TAF sites for the overnight hours.


Atlantic high pressure to our east northeast today will keep the 
gentle breezes from the southeast to south, with a slight increase 
this afternoon along the Volusia coast. Gentle to moderate breezes 
tonight. Seas will remain at 2 to 3 feet today and tonight.

Fri-Mon...The Atlc ridge axis is forecast to be just north of the
local Atlc waters Fri then shift back to the south reaching the 
southern waters by Sunday morning. A drier airmass will rotate in
from the east on the south side of the ridge axis and produce much
below normal coverage of rain/storms Fri. Pressure gradient will
support SE winds 10 knots, except 10-15 knots near the coast in a
sea breeze. 

As the ridge axis slips southward this weekend, a light offshore 
flow will develop during the overnight and early morning across
the northern waters first early Sat then including the central
waters early Sun/Mon. A SE sea breeze around 10 knots will develop
each afternoon near the coast. Coverage of showers/storms will
remain very limited Sat though isolated showers should affect the
southern waters as moisture returns. A higher coverage of storms
is expected Sun-Mon with potential for offshore moving storms
especially north of Sebastian Inlet in the afternoons. Seas 2-3


No sites along the Saint Johns river are at or above Flood Stage. 
However, Astor, Sanford and Lake Harney forecast points remain in 
Action Stage. Refer to the latest Hydrologic Statements (RVSMLB) for 
the latest stage and forecast information.


DAB  90  75  91  73 /  20  30  10  10 
MCO  93  75  94  74 /  30  20  20  10 
MLB  90  75  91  76 /  30  10  10   0 
VRB  91  75  90  72 /  20  20  10   0 
LEE  93  75  94  76 /  30  20  20  10 
SFB  93  75  94  75 /  30  20  20  10 
ORL  93  75  94  76 /  30  20  20  10 
FPR  91  75  90  72 /  20  20  10  10 





LONG TERM....Kelly