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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Melbourne, FL (MLB)

FXUS62 KMLB 240829

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
329 AM EST Sat Feb 24 2018

Currently...Fog development will continue to be possible through 
early this morning near to northwest of the I-4 corridor. 
Observations are indicating visibilities have already begun dropping 
from Sanford to Daytona, but latest traffic camera imagery near these 
sites doesn't indicate much more than shallow patchy ground fog. Fog 
could thicken some toward daybreak over these areas, but with 
elevated SE boundary layer winds across the region, greatest 
potential for any dense fog looks to remain north of Lake and 
Volusia counties. Will therefore leave mention limited to patchy fog 
for northern portions of east central Florida in the forecast.  

Today-Tonight...Ridge axis of high pressure over the west Atlantic 
that is currently north of the area will begin to shift southward 
and eventually settle across the area into tonight. This will veer 
low level southeast winds to the south-southwest into tonight. Low 
level moisture will build northward across the area through the 
afternoon in this flow, with PW values increasing slightly today. 
This should again lead to shower development along and ahead of the 
inland moving east coast sea breeze, but coverage should remain 
isolated with strong ridge aloft. Highs will continue to range from 
the low 80s along the coast to mid 80s over the interior, with lows 
in the mid to upper 60s tonight.

SUN-MON...Regional upr ridge responsible for the extended period 
of well above normal temperatures will become slowly elongated and
weakening through Sunday in response to mid level impulses moving
across the lwr MS valley. Veering winds combined with reduced
subsidence will lead to isold rain chcs primarily at the coast 
Sunday then all areas by Mon aftn. Temp ranges will remain well 
above normal as well. A slow moving frontal boundary is advertised
to progress into N FL by late Monday.

TUE-FRI...Ongoing migration of pattern to zonal aloft with a 
weakening surface front moving across central FL on Tue. Ascd 
moisture looks marginal at best to produce no more than isold rain
chc due to lack of forcing mechanism. Temps wl remain at to above
normal to close out the month. Broad ridging is shown trying to 
re- establish over the state from mid to late week with continued 
rather dry and warm conditions to begin the month of March. A more
pronounced front may make it south into the area around Friday, 
bringing cooler conditions for the weekend. 


.AVIATION...Patchy ground fog will continue to produce varying 
visibilities to IFR/MVFR near to northwest of the I-4 corridor 
through early this morning. Otherwise conditions will predominantly 
be VFR across the area today, with only brief reductions to MVFR in 
any isolated showers that develop along and inland of the east coast 
sea breeze through the day.   


Today-Tonight...Ridge axis north of the waters will gradually shift 
southward and across the region into tonight.  This will veer 
southeast flow to a more southerly direction past sunset, with wind 
speeds remaining around 10-15 knots. Longer period swells will 
decrease slightly into today, with seas ranging from 3-5 feet.  

SUN...Open water conditions wl remain marginally favorable. No 
headlines are anticipated, however SE-S winds breezy at times in 
the afternoon along the coast combined with remnant swell will 
produce 3-5 ft seas over the open waters with highest seas well 
away from the coast.

MON-THU...Weakness created by surface boundary over N to central FL
will bring lighter winds to the local marine area early in the 
week with veering to S to SW component on Monday. A modest wind 
shift to N-NE on Tue will veer direct onshore into midweek. 
Headlines are not anticipated at least the first half of the week.


.CLIMATE...Melbourne and Vero Beach still have a shot at breaking or 
tying their record warm low for today, February 24th. An additional 
warm minimum temperature record or two could be possible on Sunday, 
February 25th, mainly for coastal sites.

                    February 24     February 25 

Daytona Beach         68-1962         66-1928
Orlando Intl          68-1962         68-1912
Sanford               70-1962         67-2011
Melbourne             72-1979         70-2001
Vero Beach            71-1962         70-2001
Ft. Pierce            70-1949         69-2001

Temperatures still forecast to remain well above normal through the 
remainder of the month, and a record warm February looks on track 
for Orlando, Melbourne, Sanford and Vero Beach, with Daytona Beach 
and Fort Pierce likely coming in second warmest.


DAB  81  66  83  68 /  20  10  10  20 
MCO  85  66  87  67 /  20  20  10  20 
MLB  83  68  83  68 /  20  10  20  20 
VRB  82  67  85  66 /  20  20  20  20 
LEE  85  66  87  69 /  20  20  10  20 
SFB  84  66  86  67 /  20  10  10  20 
ORL  84  67  86  69 /  20  20  10  20 
FPR  82  67  84  65 /  20  20  20  20 





SHORT TERM...Weitlich
LONG TERM....Pendergrast