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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Melbourne, FL (MLB)

                            
000
FXUS62 KMLB 140756
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
356 AM EDT Sun Oct 14 2018

.DISCUSSION...

Today...The weak frontal boundary that stalled out over the southern 
peninsula will gradually wash out.  The associated higher moisture 
will start to spread back ashore across about the south half of the 
area as high pressure along/offshore the mid Atlantic coast slightly 
bumps up and deepens easterly flow.  MOS Pops are only around 20% 
from about Orlando and Titusville southward.  With some low/mid 60s 
dew points existing north of there right now, won't deviate from 
those MOS PoPs much. Forecast soundings don't look supportive for
thunder due to rather warm mid level temps associated with mid
level ridging. Therefore, have adjusted the inherited slight 
chance for thunder across the south to inland areas, where sea 
breeze and Okeechobee boundaries could force deeper convection.

After a brief interlude of lower humidity on Sat, it will feel more 
like the humid days of late summer here in east central Florida as 
dew points rise and temps reach the upper 80s to around 90 degrees.

Tonight...Weak inverted trough (old front) will lift north as low 
level flow becomes more east/southeast due to high pressure pushing
offshore the mid Atlantic coast. Higher moisture associated with 
the weak boundary will overspread the entire area. Expected 
scattered showers to occur on Atlantic cloud lines, with some 
pushing into the coast. The onshore low level wind flow looks 
sufficient to push a few of the showers to interior sections. Low 
temps will return to well above normal for mid Oct with readings 
mostly in the mid 70s.

Mon-Wed...Mid/upper level ridge will remain extended across Florida 
through early to mid week. This combined with warm temperatures 
aloft and lingering areas of mid level dry air will keep rain 
chances low through the period. Low level southeast flow will allow 
a few showers to push onshore overnight and into the morning hours, 
mainly along the Treasure Coast. Then into the afternoon any showers 
that form along the inland moving east coast sea breeze will remain 
isolated, with a slight chance storms over the interior. Will keep 
PoPs around 20 percent or less through the mid week. Temperatures 
will remain warmer than normal, with highs in the upper 80s to low 
90s, and overnight lows in the low to mid 70s. 

Thu-Sat...Ridge aloft remains in place, weakening a frontal boundary 
that will slide southward into north Florida Thursday and stall near 
to north of Volusia County. Increase in moisture with this front and 
strengthening onshore winds will lead to higher rain chances across 
northern portions of east central Florida into late week, with PoPs 
increasing up to 40-50 percent Thursday through Friday. Low 
developing along stalled front will lift northeast across the 
southeast U.S. into Saturday lifting the boundary north and east of 
the area, with rain chances decreasing to around 20-30 percent for 
much of the region. Temperatures will remain near to above normal 
through late week into early weekend. 

&&

.AVIATION...There's a slight chance for MVFR in showers moving 
onshore today from about KMLB southward. Otherwise VFR with some 
ceilings at or above FL035, mainly KISM-KMCO-KTIX southward. There's 
also a slight chance for showers tonight at the coastal sites and 
even inland to about KSFB-KMCO. Generally more VFR stratocumulus
expected overnight with occasional ceilings at many of the terminals.

&&

.MARINE...
Today-Tonight...High pressure center pushing to the mid Atlantic 
coast and offshore will slightly tighten the gradient and boost 
easterly winds to 10-15 knots by late evening.  Seas are starting 
off 2-3 feet and will only slightly increase in the north/central
offshore zones tonight to 3-4 feet.

Mon-Thu...Winds will generally remain onshore through the upcoming 
week, with wind speeds increasing up to 10-15 knots at times mainly 
south of the Cape. Seas will range from 2-4 feet.   

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  88  76  89  74 /  10  20  20  10 
MCO  90  76  91  74 /  20  20  20  10 
MLB  89  77  89  76 /  20  20  10  10 
VRB  90  76  88  76 /  20  20  10  20 
LEE  90  75  91  73 /  10  10  20  10 
SFB  90  75  91  74 /  10  20  20  10 
ORL  90  76  91  75 /  10  20  20  10 
FPR  89  74  88  75 /  20  20  20  20 

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Lascody
LONG TERM....Weitlich