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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Melbourne, FL (MLB)

FXUS62 KMLB 151908

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
308 PM EDT Wed Aug 15 2018


Currently-Tonight...Drier air aloft has kept coverage of showers 
and storms limited through early afternoon. Sea breeze boundaries 
will continue to move inland, with isolated to scattered showers and 
storms continuing to develop, mainly west of I-95. Isolated strong 
storms are still possible, especially with boundary collisions over 
the far interior, near to west of Lake County toward sunset. Any 
lingering convection into late evening will diminish by midnight. 
Lows tonight will range from the low to mid 70s most areas.   

Thu-Fri...Surface ridge axis of high pressure over the west Atlantic 
will continue to lift northward across central Florida, with ridge 
aloft building westward across the region. A gradual drying of the 
airmass is expected to continue, especially into Friday with rain 
chances decreasing through late week. Isolated to scattered showers 
and storms (PoPs 20-30%) still expected, especially across the 
interior into Thursday afternoon, then only a slight chance of rain 
(20 percent) will exist over the interior counties on Friday. Highs 
will continue to range from around 90 degrees along the coast to low 
90s over the interior. However, some inland spots may reach the mid 
90s, especially due to below normal convective coverage.  

Sat-Tue...(Previous Discussion) Mid level trough will redevelop 
across the eastern CONUS this weekend. That will push a sfc trough 
into the southeast U.S and weaken the mid level ridge. The low level 
ridge axis will slip south across central FL and moisture will 
gradually increase. Rain chances will return to climatology (30-40 
percent) Sun-Tue. High temperatures will continue to reach the low 
90s over most areas, but mid 90s will continue to be possible over 
the interior.


.AVIATION...East coast sea breeze formed even earlier today and has 
focused initial convection west of the coastal terminals. So showers 
and storms are propagating inland and moving north, yielding a net 
movement to the northwest.  This will keep coastal terminals VFR 
through afternoon. A few interior TAFs will have a brief period of 
adverse weather (MVFR or possibly even IFR), but otherwise VFR 
through tonight.  Onshore flow looks too weak tonight to push any 
Atlantic showers into the coast, except possibly KSUA-KFPR, but 
haven't included any mention in the TAFs yet.  On Thu, there's a 
small chance for showers at coastal terminals south of Cape 
Canaveral in the morning, becoming VCTS at those sites early in the 
afternoon, then interior terminals will have a chance of afternoon 



Tonight...S/SE winds expected over the waters tonight, with speeds 
up to 10-15 knots. Seas will range from 1-3 feet.

Thu-Sun...The Atlc ridge axis will shift northward across central 
Florida, potentially reaching just north of the waters late this 
week which will produce an E-SE flow around 10 knots. Drier air will 
advect in from the east on the south side of the ridge axis and 
lower rain chances especially Friday. Then the ridge axis will slip 
back to the south this weekend as a sfc trough pushes into the 
Southeast states. This will result in a light offshore flow 
redeveloping across the northern waters early morning Sat and Sun. 
But a SE sea breeze will develop during the afternoon.


No sites along the Saint Johns river are at or above Flood Stage. 
However, Astor, Sanford and Lake Harney forecast points remain in 
Action Stage. Refer to the latest Hydrologic Statements (RVSMLB) for 
the latest stage and forecast information.


DAB  76  89  76  90 /  10  20  10  10 
MCO  75  93  75  93 /  20  30  20  20 
MLB  78  90  77  90 /  10  20  10  10 
VRB  75  90  75  90 /  10  20  10  10 
LEE  76  93  77  93 /  30  30  30  20 
SFB  75  92  75  94 /  20  30  20  20 
ORL  76  93  76  93 /  20  30  20  20 
FPR  75  90  75  90 /  10  20  10  10 




Short/Long Term...Weitlich 
Impact Wx/Aviation...Lascody