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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Melbourne, FL (MLB)

                            
929 
FXUS62 KMLB 210938
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
438 AM EST Wed Feb 21 2018

.DISCUSSION...

...Temperatures Will Remain Above Normal through the Weekend...

Today/Tonight...Strong mid level ridge (595-596 dm) centered off 
the mid Atlc coast will produce subsident drying and reduce the 
precipitable water values compared to yesterday. This will limit 
the prospect for Atlc showers. In the lower levels, E/SE flow will
continue with breezy conditions along the coast. Above normal 
temperatures will continue with mid 80s interior and around 80 at 
the coast (except upper 70s Volusia coast). Persistent onshore
flow tonight will keep coastal communities warm with lows in the
low 70s, which is 15-20 degrees above the seasonal average. Min
temps over the interior/Volusia will be mainly in the mid 60s
which is still 10 degrees above average.

Thu-Fri...Deep layer ridge aloft will continue to extend across 
Florida, with ridge axis at the surface remaining north of the area 
and providing an elevated SE flow in the lower levels. This will 
continue a warm and overall dry pattern into late week, with only a 
slight chance for showers along the coast Thu night and across 
northern portions of east central Florida into Friday. Highs will 
continue to range from the low 80s along the coast to mid 80s over 
the interior, with lows generally in the 60s. The exception will be 
along the coast south of the Cape, where a few coastal spots may 
only fall into the low 70s where winds remain onshore.  

Sat-Tue...Mid/upper level ridge across Florida remains through the 
weekend into early next week. However this feature is compressed by 
cutoff low moving through upper Great Lakes early Sunday, and deeper 
trough moving through the Midwest into Sunday night/Monday. Surface 
ridge axis north of the area, gradually settles southward across 
Florida into Sunday and Monday, as a cold front moves into the 
southeast and weakens/decelerates into early next week. This front 
may slowly cross central Florida into Tuesday with onshore flow 
behind this system increasing moisture and rain chances toward 
middle of next week. Otherwise warmer than normal and mostly dry 
conditions will continue, with only isolated showers forecast 
through the period.  

Despite any slight cooling behind the weak front at the end of 
month, it looks to be a record warm February for some locations in 
central Florida, especially at Orlando and Melbourne. 

&&

.AVIATION...
Patchy MVFR CIGs through 13Z then VFR. E/SE winds 12-14 kts with
gusts to 20 knots from MLB-SUA, slightly lower speeds at DAB and
interior terminals. Some drier air will limit coverage of showers.

&&

.MARINE...
Today/Tonight...Strong high pressure ridge north of the waters 
will continue a moderate E/SE wind flow. Pressure gradient will 
support 15-20 knots over the southern waters and 10-15 knots 
across the north. Choppy seas of 4 to 5 feet will produce poor
boating conditions with seas building to 6 feet tonight over the
offshore/Gulf stream waters. So small craft operators should
exercise caution.

Thu-Sun...The axis of the Atlc high pres ridge will remain draped
over north FL from mid to late week, generating a gentle to 
moderate E/SE breeze. Pressure gradient will be support 10-14 
knots across the north and 15-19 knots across the southern waters.
So small craft will frequently need to exercise caution south of 
Sebastian Inlet but do not expect a Small Craft Advisory will be 
needed. Seas 3-5FT Wed, building to 5-6FT in the Gulf Stream by 
daybreak Thu into Sat as the persistent erly flow begins to push 
increasing swells into the adjacent coastal waters. Isolated 
showers from time to time.

&&

.CLIMATE...

Record warm minimum temps and the year set: 

               February 21     February 22     February 23  

Daytona Beach    68-1989         69-2008         69-2013
Orlando Intl     68-1989         69-1945         69-2013
Sanford          66-2002         68-2008         70-2013
Melbourne        70-1989         69-2003         69-2008
Vero Beach       72-1961         73-1961         73-1961
Ft. Pierce       73-1961         73-1961         71-1979

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  81  63  80  65 /  10  10  10  20 
MCO  86  64  85  65 /  10  10  10  10 
MLB  83  70  83  70 /  10  10  10  20 
VRB  83  70  82  69 /  10  10  10  20 
LEE  86  65  85  65 /   0  10  10  10 
SFB  85  64  84  65 /  10  10  10  10 
ORL  85  65  84  66 /  10  10  10  10 
FPR  82  70  82  69 /  10  10  10  20 

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Kelly
LONG TERM....Weitlich