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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Melbourne, FL (MLB)

                            
598 
FXUS62 KMLB 251948
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
348 PM EDT Fri May 25 2018

.DISCUSSION...

...Flood Watch in effect for East Central Florida over the Holiday 
Weekend...
...Locally Heavy Rainfall is Expected...

Current-Tonight...Deeper moisture has moved northward across central 
Florida this afternoon though short range guidance indicates a 
slight rebuilding of the Atlantic ridge across the area from late 
evening and overnight before another surge of moisture moves up 
toward the Treasure Coast late tonight. Short range guidance POPs 
are in variable agreement with scattered evening convection expected 
to linger into this evening across the northern interior and then 
ending, but continuing chances overnight along the Treasure coast 
where some Atlantic showers and isolated storms will move back 
onshore through the late night hours. Some locally heavy rainfall 
will be possible into the evening across much of east central 
Florida except the Volusia coast and then some heavy rain showers 
possible across the Treasure Coast late.

Saturday...Alberto will move northward into the southeast Gulf into 
Sat afternoon with another surge of deep tropical moisture lifting 
into southern sections in the morning and central/and nrn interior 
sections into the afternoon. The deep moisture will support rain 
chances in the likely range from southern sections to Orlando and 
Lake county with slightly lower rain chances in the scattered range 
for the Volusia coast. With the tropical moisture on the east side 
of Alberto making its way to east central Florida, expect the risk 
of locally heavy rainfall amounts up to 2-3 inches in localized 
areas. A Flood Watch will be in effect from Saturday afternoon 
through the holiday weekend. Extensive cloud cover will limit high 
temperatures from 80-82 south to 83-85 from Orlando northward.

Saturday night...Alberto should move northward across the central 
Gulf with deep moisture continuing and outer tropical rain bands 
moving northward over the peninsula. The threat for locally heavy 
rain will continue as well as a very low threat for a few storms to 
develop rotation with low level helicity increasing Tue-Thu...A wet 
pattern persists through at least the middle of next week as a deep 
S/SW flow keeps a very moist airmass across the region. Scattered to 
numerous showers and thunderstorm expected each day with convective 
development becoming more diurnally driven, with greatest coverage 
into the afternoon hours. Localized flooding issues will continue to 
be a concern due to the rain soaked grounds following the holiday 
weekend.  across the area overnight. Will continue rain chances from 
50-60 percent.

Sunday...Low level flow will become SSE/S with PWATs from 2.1-2.3 
inches and a plume of deep tropical moisture continuing over the 
peninsula. This set up looks like it will be supportive of northward 
moving shower bands with locally heavy rainfall amounts up to 2 to 3 
inches. Temps will be held down by persistent cloud cover in the 
lower 80s. Rain chances will be near 80 percent.

Memorial Day...Alberto will slow down its forward speed on Monday 
and this will keep a deep plume of tropical moisture across eastern 
portions of the peninsula. Low level flow from the S/SSW will 
continue to focus heavy rain showers across the area. The Flood 
Watch will continue through the day with another day with locally 
heavy rainfall leading to a concern for flooding in some areas that 
experience heavy rain. Rain chances will remain high near 80 
percent.

Tue-Thu...A wet pattern persists through at least the middle of next 
week as a deep S/SW flow keeps a very moist airmass across the 
region. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorm expected each 
day with convective development becoming more diurnally driven, with 
greatest coverage into the afternoon hours. Localized flooding 
issues will continue to be a concern due to the rain soaked grounds 
following the holiday weekend. 

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR outside of showers and storms. Scattered to numerous showers and 
storms will continue through this evening mainly across the interior 
terminals and MLB southward along the coast.  MVFR and IFR 
ceilings/visibilities will be possibly in the heaviest showers and 
storms.  A chance of showers will continue overnight into Saturday 
morning along the coast from VRB-SUA.

&&

.MARINE...
Tonight...SE winds will increase some to near 15 knots overnight 
with seas building to 3 to 5 feet. Scattered showers and isolated 
storms will be possible across the waters with higher coverage south 
of Sebastian Inlet.

Saturday...SE winds will increase to near 20 knots across the srn 
waters and 15-20 knots nrn waters. Expect Exercise Caution and 
Advisory headlines to be required on Saturday and then Advisory 
conditions continuing through the holiday weekend.

Sunday...Southerly winds to 20 knots, advisory conditions and 
widespread showers and scattered storms are expected with deep 
moisture to the east of Alberto in the central Gulf. This will cause 
hazardous boating conditions across the Atlantic. 

Mon-Tue...Currently model guidance indicates a slow improvement in 
winds and seas through early next week, as southerly winds gradually 
decrease. However, poor boating conditions will likely continue for 
much of the waters through at least Memorial Day for southerly winds 
15-20 knots and seas up to 6 feet. 

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A prolonged period of locally heavy rainfall potential is expected 
across east central Florida as Alberto moves northward through the 
Gulf of Mexico toward the northern Gulf coast. Daily rainfall 
amounts may reach 2-3 inches over multiple days from Saturday 
through Memorial Day in localized areas. Storm total rainfall may 
reach up to 6-8 inches in spots by Monday. This will cause a concern 
for flooding across east central Florida, especially in areas that 
received heavy rainfall earlier this month.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  72  83  74  82 /  20  30  60  80 
MCO  71  83  73  83 /  30  60  60  80 
MLB  75  83  77  83 /  30  60  70  80 
VRB  74  82  76  84 /  50  60  70  80 
LEE  72  84  73  83 /  30  60  60  80 
SFB  71  84  72  83 /  20  50  60  80 
ORL  72  83  73  83 /  30  60  60  80 
FPR  72  82  76  84 /  50  70  70  80 

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Flood Watch from Saturday afternoon through Monday evening for 
     Coastal Volusia County-Indian River-Inland Volusia County-
     Martin-Northern Brevard County-Northern Lake County-
     Okeechobee-Orange-Osceola-Seminole-Southern Brevard County-
     Southern Lake County-St. Lucie.

AM...None.
&&

$$

Volkmer/Ulrich/Combs