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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Melbourne, FL (MLB)

FXUS62 KMLB 241300

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
900 AM EDT Sat Aug 24 2019

A broad low pressure area across the southern FL peninsula was 
analyzed this morning with a surface trof extending NNE across the 
Treasure Coast and Atlantic waters. At the mid levels, a 500 mb low 
was initialized by the 06z models about 80nm offshore. The deepest 
moisture will remain near the Treasure Coast with PWATs to 2.1-2.3 
inches this afternoon with a drier mid level airmass across the nrn 
interior with PWATs averaging 1.7-1.9 inches. POP distribution will 
follow moisture profiles with POPS ranging from 50-60 percent across 
the southeast to 30-40 percent across nrn sections. Appears locally 
heavy rain threat will be mainly confined to the southern forecast 
area, closest to the deepest moisture with mid level dry air and 
progressive inland moving convection limiting rainfall amounts 
farther north today. High temperatures today will range from the 
upper 80s to near 90 across the south and near the east coast to the 
lower to mid 90s across the nrn interior. Only minor updates were 
made to the current forecast based on current radar and expected POP 
trends for this afternoon.  


Highest early afternoon convective CHCs should be in the KMLB-KSUA 
corridor with daytime heating and deep moisture. For nrn terminals, 
dry mid level air layer and low level E-NE flow will limit deep 
convection somewhat but still expect at least scattered SHRA/isold 
TSRA with daytime heating with an inland progression to convection. 
12Z terminals have TEMPO SHRA for KFPR-KSUA by early afternoon with 
VCSH at this time for most other terminals by the afternoon hours.


Today...A surge in the S/SE winds overnight has allowed seas to 
increase to 3-4 ft this morning for the offshore and srn waters. The 
surface trough axis is across the waters with winds becoming NE at 5 
knots at buoy 41009 on the back side of the trough over the last 
several hours. Better boating conds are expected for the nearshore 
Volusia waters with higher storm chances and seas across the 
southern and offshore waters into this afternoon. Forecast is in 
good shape with only minor updates expected.


DAB  88  76  90  76 /  30  20  50  30 
MCO  92  76  92  76 /  40  20  50  40 
MLB  88  77  90  77 /  50  20  50  40 
VRB  88  74  90  76 /  60  30  60  40 
LEE  94  76  93  77 /  30  20  50  40 
SFB  93  76  92  77 /  30  20  50  30 
ORL  92  77  92  77 /  40  20  50  40 
FPR  88  75  92  76 /  60  30  60  50