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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Melbourne, FL (MLB)

                            
000
FXUS62 KMLB 151348
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
948 AM EDT Wed Aug 15 2018

.DISCUSSION...
Drier air is building in from the southeast, with PW values at the
Cape around 1.6-1.7", and around 1.4" from the MFL sounding this
morning. This drier air combined with S/SE flow across the 
region, with ridge axis across central Florida will lead to a
decrease in rain chances today and favor greatest shower/storm 
coverage across the interior along and ahead of the inland moving 
east coast sea breeze. PoPs for today range from 20-30 percent 
along the coast to 30-40 percent over inland areas. Drier air 
aloft will continue the potential for a few strong storms, 
producing frequent lightning and strong wind gusts. Locally heavy 
rainfall up to 1-2 inches will also be possible due to weak 
steering winds that will lead to slow and erratic storm motion 
this afternoon. Highs expected around 90 degrees along the coast
and in the low 90s across the interior. 

&&

.AVIATION...Mainly VFR, with lower coverage of showers and storms
than previous days. Greatest potential for tempo IFR/MVFR 
conditions in iso/sct showers/storms will be across the interior 
this afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...High pressure ridge axis across central Florida today, 
will keep winds out of the S/SE around 5-10 knots, increasing to
around 10 knots near the coast as the sea breeze forms and moves 
inland. Afternoon and evening storms expected to focus mainly 
across the interior today. However, a few storms that develop 
along the coast early in the afternoon, may push back toward the 
intracoastal waters north of Melbourne. Seas will range from 1-2
feet nearshore and 2-3 feet offshore.  

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No sites along the Saint Johns river are at or above Flood Stage. 
However, Astor, Sanford and Lake Harney forecast points remain in 
Action Stage. Refer to the latest Hydrologic Statements (RVSMLB)
for the latest stage and forecast information.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  90  76  90  75 /  30  10  20  10 
MCO  92  75  94  75 /  40  40  30  10 
MLB  90  76  91  77 /  30  10  20  10 
VRB  90  75  90  75 /  20  10  20  10 
LEE  93  76  94  76 /  40  30  30  20 
SFB  93  76  94  76 /  40  20  30  10 
ORL  92  76  93  76 /  40  30  30  10 
FPR  90  75  90  74 /  20  10  20  10 

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

Weitlich/Lascody