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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Melbourne, FL (MLB)

FXUS62 KMLB 250119

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
820 PM EST Sat Feb 24 2018


The strong deep layer western Atlantic ridge continues to dominate 
the local weather pattern this evening. Surface to H850 center has
shifted a bit to the E-SE over the past 24 hours, resulting in a 
slight veering of winds locally to more of a southerly component. 
This should keep any small shower chances confined to the immediate 
Treasure Coast overnight. Otherwise, another mild to warm night is 
on tap with mins a few degrees either side of 65F. Could see some
shallow mist over the northern/western interior late tonight, and
like last night, near any recent smoldering burns, since prescribed
burn activity has been on the uptick this month.


.AVIATION...Mainly VFR with spotty MIFG/BR producing occasional MVFR 
visibilities over the north interior aerodromes 09Z-13Z.


.MARINE...A moderate to gentle SE-SSE breeze will continue on the 
back side of the Atlantic ridge overnight. Speeds averaging 10-13KT 
with seas around 3FT near shore and 4-5FT well offshore.




.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 245 PM EST Sat Feb 24 2018/  

Sunday...The mid level ridge will continue across the srn peninsula 
with low level flow veering to southerly. Low level moisture depth 
will be similar to Saturday though higher moisture levels will be 
near the Treasure coast and allow for isolated showers mainly across 
areas from Brevard and Osceola county south to the Treasure coast as 
east coast sea breeze develops. Highs will range from 83 to 85 
across the coastal counties and 84 to 87 across the interior. 

Sun Night-Mon Night...Initially, high pressure over the western Atlc 
with associated ridging lies across the central FL peninsula. A weak 
boundary across the Gulf Coast States makes slow progress southward 
into the central FL peninsula (potentially) late Mon night. This 
east-west boundary will force the high pressure further into the 
western Atlc with associated ridge axis forced across the southern 
FL peninsula. Aloft, mid-level ridging remains rather flat with axis 
across the southern FL peninsula and extending westward into the the 
GOMEX. While PWAT values will be between a modest 1.20-1.40 inches, 
any mid/upper level support with the surface boundary remains 
severely lacking. Cannot force myself to go higher (just yet) than 
20pct during any period of this timeframe. Feel most areas will 
either stay dry or just will not see much more than a sprinkle or 
brief light shower. Temperatures remain well above climo. 

Previous...Tue-Fri...Ongoing migration of pattern to zonal aloft with
a weakening surface front moving across central FL on Tue. Ascd 
moisture looks marginal at best to produce no more than isold rain 
chc due to lack of forcing mechanism. Temps wl remain at to above 
normal to close out the month. Broad ridging is shown trying to re- 
establish over the state from mid to late week with continued rather 
dry and warm conditions to begin the month of March. A more 
pronounced front may make it south into the area around Friday, 
bringing cooler conditions for the weekend. 


Forecasting predominantly VFR conditions across the area today. A few 
light showers are possible across the northern terminals through this
evening. Any shower activity will end after sunset. Model guidance is
once again hinting at the possibility of patchy MVFR fog, so have
included TEMPO groups at KDAB and the northern interior terminals.


Tonight...SE/S winds overnight up to 10-15 knots expected around the 
Atlantic ridge with seas 3-4 ft near shore and 4-5 ft offshore.

Sunday...S winds around 10 knots will become SE near the coast in 
the afternoon. Seas will subside a bit further, around 3 ft 
nearshore to 3-4 ft offshore by late afternoon.

Sun Night...Weak frontal boundary remains quasi-stationary across 
the Deep South north of the local coastal waters as surface ridging 
remains in place (east-west oriented) across the central FL 
peninsula. SERLY winds will veer SSWRLY north of at least Sebastian 
Inlet and S/SSE points further southward. Wind speeds AOB 15 kts. 
Seas 3-4 ft near shore and 4-5 ft offshore (north of Sebastian 
Inlet). Shower chances remain isolated.

Previous (modified)...Mon-Thu...Weakness created by surface boundary
over N to central FL will bring lighter winds to the local marine
area early in the week with veering to S to SW component on Monday.
A modest wind shift to N-NE on Tue, should the boundary make it this
far south, will veer direct onshore into midweek. Headlines are not
anticipated at least the first half of the week.


.CLIMATE...Melbourne and Vero Beach still have a shot at breaking or 
tying their record warm low for today, February 24th. An additional 
warm minimum temperature record or two could be possible on Sunday, 
February 25th, mainly for coastal sites.

                    February 24     February 25 

Daytona Beach         68-1962         66-1928
Orlando Intl          68-1962         68-1912
Sanford               70-1962         67-2011
Melbourne             72-1979         70-2001
Vero Beach            71-1962         70-2001
Ft. Pierce            70-1949         69-2001

Temperatures still forecast to remain well above normal through the 
remainder of the month, and a record warm February looks on track 
for Orlando, Melbourne, Sanford and Vero Beach, with Daytona Beach 
and Fort Pierce likely coming in second warmest.


DAB  66  84  66  83 /  10  10  20  20 
MCO  66  87  66  85 /  10  10  20  20 
MLB  70  83  68  83 /  10  20  20  10 
VRB  68  84  67  83 /  20  20  20  20 
LEE  66  86  66  84 /  20  10  20  20 
SFB  66  86  66  85 /  10  10  20  20 
ORL  68  87  67  85 /  10  10  20  20 
FPR  67  83  67  83 /  20  20  20  20