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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Melbourne, FL (MLB)

                            
000
FXUS62 KMLB 170832
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
350 AM EDT Wed Oct 17 2018

.DISCUSSION...

Today...
The influence of the strong mid level ridge at 500 mbs (with heights 
to 594-595 DM) across east central FL will continue the recent 
pattern of scant to nil rain chances and near record warmth for one 
more day. In the lower levels southeast winds around the low level 
Atlantic ridge will become easterly into late afternoon. Isolated 
showers early this morning near the Treasure coast and over the 
Atlantic will lift gradually northward. Think the isolated shower 
activity will remain across the Atlantic past sunrise for the most 
part, though there could be a light shower or two near the coast 
from Brevard county northward. Will keep rain chances though below 
mentionable range for now. Highs will reach 89-91 across coastal 
sections to 91-94 across the interior. A record high is likely at 
Sanford this afternoon and possible for Daytona, Melbourne and Vero 
Beach. A lingering long period east swell at the beaches will 
contribute to a moderate risk for rip currents.

Tonight...
A frontal boundary will move into north FL overnight with low level 
onshore flow continuing with a rather dry airmass remaining in place 
with influence of the mid level ridge just east of east central FL. 
Will continue some low shower chances mainly across far southern 
sections through the night and across NE Volusia county toward 
morning. Lows will range from the lower to mid 70s interior and 
north coastal to the upper 70s along the Treasure Coast beaches. 

Thu-Thu Night... 
H30-H20 jet streak extending from the desert SW to New England will 
pull a cold front from the Deep South into north FL. Given the 
prevailing zonal nature of the jet, the front is expected to stall 
btwn the panhandle and the I-4 Corridor. Continued warm and mild as 
the prevailing onshore flow pushes ocean modified air acrs the 
state...max temps in the U80s/L90s...min temps in the L/M70s.

Fcst PWat values will be on the low side thru the day as the 
prefronal moisture band drops into the region...generally blo 1.50" 
thru sunset. PoPs 40pct Orlando/Cape Canaveral northward, decreasing 
to 20pct around Lake-O. Increasing precip chances overnight as the 
moisture band sags into central FL. However, with the jet streak 
expected to lift NE, dynamic support will be quite weak. Precip 
chances increasing to 50pct along the coast, decreasing to 30pct 
inland...no mention of thunder. 

Fri-Fri Night...
Hi pres will bridge the front on Fri before pushing off the NE FL 
coast aft sunset. Winds bcmg east thru the day, then southeast 
overnight. Low lvl moisture will continue to sag into central as the 
front washes out, bringing PWat values to arnd 2.00" areawide. 
Dynamic support remains quite weak with high pres building 
overhead...will limit thunder chances to the daytime pd only, and a 
slgt chc at that. Mcldy skies and sct to likely PoPs will keep max 
temps in the M/U80s, min temps continued warm in the L/M70s. 

Sat-Tue...
A period of unsettle weather is in store for central FL as a coupled 
jet pattern sets up over the NE CONUS. This feature will result in a 
progressvie WX pattern as it pulls a strong high pres ridge from the 
central plains Sat evng to of the Mid Atlc coast by Mon evng. The 
ridge will push a few new cold front into central FL, but is 
expected to push offshore before the front can clear the state. Will 
keep a chance of shras/slgt chc of tsras in the fcst thru the 
weekend as the front approaches. Precip chances diminish on Mon as 
the front works its way into south FL, then rebound on Tue as the 
post frontal ridge pushes into the W Atlc, allowing return flow to 
develop that will push the frontal boundary back into central FL. 

No change in airmass thru thru Sat, but cooling down to near climo 
avgs acrs the I-4 Corridor Sun into Mon as the front stalls over the 
Treasure Coast/Lake-O region.  

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR. Isold -SHRA will affect the KFPR-KMLB corridor early this 
morning but coverage too low to mention for cstl terminals at this 
time. Patchy ground fog is also possible over north/interior 
terminals (LEE/DAB/SFB/MCO) around sunrise but will not mention in 
TAFs. Through the daylight hours today, E-SE winds 5-10 knots 
expected but subsident airmass will produce very limited (if any) 
shower activity.

&&

.MARINE...
Today...Southeast winds to 8-13 knots will become ESE into late 
afternoon. Seas 2-3 ft near shore and 3 ft offshore. Isolated 
light showers across the waters.

Tonight..E winds to 10-15 knots across the south and decreasing E/SE 
winds across the Volusia waters through the night. Seas will still 
remain mainly in the 2-3 ft range. Isolated light showers. 

Thu-Thu night...Light to gentle E/NE breeze early, bcmg moderate to 
fresh by late aftn as a cold front stalls over north FL. Seas 2-3Ft 
early, building to 5-7FT north of Cape Canaveral and 3-4FT to the 
south by late aftn. Seas will continue to build overnight as the 
wind surge works its way down the coast...4-6FT nearshore and 6-8FT 
offshore. 

Fri-Fri night...High pres will build off the NE FL Coast, allowing 
the lcl pgrad to relax. A moderate to fresh easterly breeze thru the 
day veering to a light to gentle SE breeze overnight. Seas 5-7FT 
thru the day, subsiding to 4-6FT overnight. 

Sat-Sat Night...A new cold front is fcst to drop into central/south 
FL and stall. Winds veering thru the day with the approaching 
front...light to gentle SE breeze early, bcmg south by early aftn, 
W/SW by midnight, then a gentle to moderate NW breeze by daybreak. 
Seas 4-6FT thru the day, subsiding to 3-4FT overnight. 

Sun-Sun Night...Post frontal ridge will build acrs the Deep South, 
tightening the lcl pgrad and producing poor boating conds. Winds 
increasing to a moderate to fresh N/NE breeze with seas building to 
6-8FT. 

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  91  74  87  75 /  10  10  40  50 
MCO  93  73  90  74 /  10  10  40  40 
MLB  90  76  88  74 /  10  10  30  50 
VRB  90  75  87  76 /  10  10  30  50 
LEE  94  75  90  73 /  10  10  40  30 
SFB  93  74  89  74 /  10  10  40  40 
ORL  93  75  90  74 /  10  10  40  40 
FPR  89  75  87  76 /  10  10  20  40 

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Volkmer
LONG TERM....Bragaw
AVIATION...Volkmer