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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Melbourne, FL (MLB)

                            
000
FXUS62 KMLB 150115
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
915 PM EDT Sun Oct 14 2018

.DISCUSSION...
High pres building off the ern seaboard will maintain a steady 
easterly flow acrs the lcl Atlc overnight. Low and mid lvl moisture 
values continue to creep up with H100-H70 mean RH values btwn 70-
75pct over the Treasure Coast/Lake-O region...RH still AOB 70pct for 
the Space Coast/I-4 Corridor. Evng RAOBs show PWat values arnd 1.50" 
at KXMR/KTBW, much of which is trapped blo a sharp subsidence 
inversion in the H85-H70 lyr. 

Dissipating frontal boundary that was stalled over south FL will 
work its way back into the Treasure Coast/Lake-O region overnight as 
the high pres ridge builds into the W Atlc. Increasing low lvl 
moisture and sfc convergence will allow a few low-topped shras to 
dvlp over the coastal waters, some of which could advect onshore 
south of Sebastian Inlet. These will have little if any impact, 
however, as H70 temps btwn 9-10C suggest a mid lvl thermal cap that 
would require strong dynamic support in order for any convection to 
break. RAP40 showing no such support in the vicinity. Onshore flow 
and sfc dewpoints in the L/M70s will result in another warm night... 
min temps in the L/M70s.

The aftn package has a good handle on things, no need for an update 
this evng.  

&&

.AVIATION...Thru 16/00Z.
Sfc Winds: Thru 15/04Z...E 7-12KTS bcmg E/NE AOB 3KTS. Btwn 15/12Z-
15/15Z...bcmg E/SE 5-8KTS. Btwn 15/15Z-15/18Z...N of KMLB-KISM bcmg 
E/SE 8-12KTS.

Vsbys/WX/Cigs: Thru 15/16Z...prevailing VFR all sites...coastal 
sites S of KMLB ocnl SCT-BKN035-050 slgt chc brief MVFR shras. Aft 
15/16Z...areas CIGS btwn FL040-060...interior sites slgt chc MVFR 
shras.

&&

.MARINE...
Hi pres ridge building off the ern seaboard will generate a gentle 
to moderate E/NE breeze thru midnight. Winds will diminish and shift 
to a light to gentle E/SE breeze in the predawn hrs as a remnant 
frontal boundary over south FL works its way north into the lcl 
Atlc. A 1-2FT long pd swell (10-11sec) will combine with lcl wind 
waves to generate 2-3FT seas nearshore and 3-4FT seas offshore. 
Isold shras. No sig changes with the evng update. 

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record highs for Monday Oct. 15 through Wednesday Oct. 17  
     
     DATE  TEMP YEAR   DATE  TEMP YEAR   DATE  TEMP YEAR
DAB 15-Oct  92  1959  16-Oct  91  1936  17-Oct  90  1925 
MCO 15-Oct  93  1919  16-Oct  95  1925  17-Oct  95  1925 
SFB 15-Oct  91  1971  16-Oct  92  1971  17-Oct  90  1952 
MLB 15-Oct  91  1959  16-Oct  90  1959  17-Oct  90  1975 
VRB 15-Oct  94  2009  16-Oct  92  2009  17-Oct  90  1974 
FPR 15-Oct  93  2009  16-Oct  95  1997  17-Oct  93  1906

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.

&&

$$

Bragaw/Kelly/Smith