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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Melbourne, FL (MLB)

FXUS62 KMLB 272022

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
422 PM EDT Sun May 27 2018

...Risk of Flooding Will Continue Across Space and Treasure 

As of 4:00 PM, the center of Alberto sits roughly along the same
latitude as Melbourne (approximately 300 miles to its west). Mean
southerly flow through much of the troposphere continues to draw 
a deeply moist environment over the eastern half of the peninsula,
while drier air is intruding in the mid levels closer to the 
system's circulation.

For the rest of this evening and tonight, some of that dry air
will bleed overhead, leading to a NW-SE gradient in moisture (and
subsequently PoPs). Convergent outer rain bands east of Alberto 
will provide the best opportunity for precipitation, especially 
across the Treasure Coast in the vicinity of the deepest moisture 
and where both the HRRR and other mesoscale models indicate 
banded structure to overnight convection. With that in mind, will
maintain the highest PoPs south and east of a line connecting
Titusville to Lake Kissimmee and keep the Flood Watch up for
Brevard, Indian River, Saint Lucie, Martin, and Okeechobee
counties. Additionally, the tornado threat is subsiding, as 
increasingly uni-directional winds in the lowest levels will keep
strong wind gusts as the main threat from showers this evening. 

Monday...Precipitable water output from both the GFS and ECMWF
indicate the continued presence of a moisture gradient; however, as
Alberto makes landfall and continues to pull away from the area, 
moisture that was shunted to our east will migrate back over the 
area. Given the presence of drier air aloft initially (at least 
across northern and western sections), expect a little more 
heating and delayed start to convection north of the Treasure 
Coast and Okeechobee County. However enough moisture will still 
exist for numerous showers and storms to develop across the area 
through the afternoon, with rain chances ranging from 60 percent 
west of I-4 to 70 percent for the rest of the area. Heavy rainfall
and localized flooding issues will continue to be a concern with 
any heavier showers and storms that move over the same area. A 
Flood Watch will remain in effect for Brevard, Indian River, Saint
Lucie, Martin, and Okeechobee counties where overall the deepest
moisture will reside.

Tue-Fri...Alberto will weaken as it continues northward after 
landfall along the northern Gulf Coast. However, a moist airmass of 
2+ inch PW values will persist across the area through late week. 
This will continue elevated rain chances through Friday, ranging 
from 60-70 percent on Tuesday to 50-60 percent through Friday. 
Greatest coverage of showers and storms will occur during the 
afternoon hours, with locally heavy rainfall still being a concern. 
Highs will range from the mid-upper 80s, with low 90s possible 
across portions of the area on Friday. 


Gusty SE gradient winds up to 30 knots will diminish with sunset. 
Have added TEMPO groups for MVFR CIGs/VSBYs in TSRA from MLB-SUA 
late this afternoon as cluster of storms lifts N/NE from Lake 
Okeechobee. Will handle the remaining terminals with VCSH. Shower 
coverage should decrease overnight most areas except there is 
potential for persistent SHRA from FPR-SUA past 00Z. On Monday, 
winds will be southerly and breezy with frequent gusts around 25 
knots. Numerous showers/storms expected aft 18Z. 


Tonight...Hazardous marine conditions will continue overnight as
tight pressure gradient between Alberto and high pressure over the
western Atlantic continues. South winds 20 to 25 knots, with
occasional gusts to gale force offshore continue. Guidance 
indicates winds will subside some toward daybreak, but still
remaining around 20 knots. Seas 5 to 7 near the immediate coast,
increasing up to 8 to 9 feet offshore. Small Craft Advisory
remains in effect. 

Mon...Poor to hazardous boating conditions look to continue into 
Memorial Day. SCA has been extended for the offshore waters through 
Monday evening for southerly winds around 20 knots and seas up to 7 
feet. Nearshore, winds will range from 15-20 knots with seas 4-6 

Tue-Thu...Winds and seas will then continue to gradually improve 
through mid week, with southerly winds decreasing to 10-15 knots and 
seas falling to 5 feet or less.  


DAB  75  85  73  85 /  30  70  40  70 
MCO  74  86  73  86 /  30  60  40  70 
MLB  75  86  75  85 /  60  70  50  60 
VRB  76  86  74  85 /  60  70  50  60 
LEE  75  86  74  85 /  20  60  40  70 
SFB  74  86  73  86 /  30  60  40  70 
ORL  74  86  73  85 /  30  60  40  70 
FPR  76  86  74  86 /  60  70  50  60 


FL...Flood Watch through Monday evening for Indian River-Martin-
     Northern Brevard County-Okeechobee-Southern Brevard County-
     St. Lucie.

     Lake Wind Advisory until 9 PM EDT this evening for Coastal 
     Volusia County-Indian River-Inland Volusia County-Martin-
     Northern Brevard County-Northern Lake County-Okeechobee-
     Orange-Osceola-Seminole-Southern Brevard County-Southern 
     Lake County-St. Lucie.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Monday for Flagler Beach to 
     Volusia-Brevard County Line 0-20 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT Monday for Sebastian Inlet 
     to Jupiter Inlet 0-20 nm-Volusia-Brevard County Line to 
     Sebastian Inlet 0-20 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Monday for Flagler Beach to 
     Volusia-Brevard County Line 20-60 nm-Sebastian Inlet to 
     Jupiter Inlet 20-60 nm-Volusia-Brevard County Line to 
     Sebastian Inlet 20-60 nm.