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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Melbourne, FL (MLB)

                            
669 
FXUS62 KMLB 171356
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
955 AM EDT Sun Jun 17 2018

.UPDATE...
Cape Canaveral morning sounding indicates deeper moisture from the 
Atlantic has made its way onshore this morning with a precipitable 
water value near 2 inches. A weak backdoor frontal trough from the 
Atlantic will move westward as low level flow veers from the north 
to northeast. This will allow the east coast sea breeze to form just 
inland from the coast and push into the interior through late 
afternoon. The deeper atmospheric moisture will support scattered 
showers and storms developing first across the coastal counties and 
then into the interior through the late afternoon. POP grids from 30 
percent along the coast to up to 50 percent across the interior look 
good. Highs will reach the upper 80s near the east coast to lower 
90s across the interior.

&&

.AVIATION...
Expect initial convection along the east coast sea breeze to develop 
just west of coastal terminals into early afternoon and then 
progress toward interior terminals by the mid to late afternoon 
hours. For now have VCTS for interior terminals from KMCO-KSFB 
westward. Deep later NE/E flow this evening should move most 
convection west of KLEE by 00z with mainly VFR conds across the area 
overnight. 

&&

.MARINE...
Northerly winds to 5-10 knots will veer to the NE-E this afternoon. 
Showers and storms across the srn gulf stream waters will diminish 
into mid afternoon as convection develops over the mainland and 
pushes westward into late afternoon. Seas 1-2 ft.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Recent heavy rainfall around and upstream from Lake Harney has 
caused an additional rise to the St Johns River Above Lake Harney 
near Geneva. The River remains above Action Stage at that location. 

The river level is forecast to continue a slow rise into early next 
week due to recent rainfall in the basin but remain below flood 
stage. Refer to the Hydrologic (River) Statements from this office 
for further forecasts.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  87  74  88  71 /  30  10  10   0 
MCO  91  74  93  72 /  50  10  30  10 
MLB  87  75  88  73 /  30  10  20  10 
VRB  87  73  89  71 /  30  20  20  10 
LEE  91  74  93  75 /  50  10  30  10 
SFB  90  74  93  73 /  40  10  20  10 
ORL  90  74  93  74 /  40  10  30  10 
FPR  86  73  88  70 /  30  20  20  10 

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

Volkmer/Ulrich