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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Melbourne, FL (MLB)

                            
000
FXUS62 KMLB 211955 CCA
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
255 PM EST Mon Jan 21 2019

.DISCUSSION...

...Warming Trend Expected through Mid Week...

Tonight...Surface high pressure will shift toward the mid Atlantic 
overnight with low level winds veering from the NE to E above the 
surface. A dry airmass will linger over the peninsula with marine 
stratocu moving onshore along the coastal counties through the night 
with higher stratocu coverage at times from the Cape south along the 
coast. A large range in low temps is expected from the lower to mid 
40s across Lake county to the lower to mid 50s along the Treasure 
Coast. 

Tuesday...High pressure across ern NC/VA will shift to the mid 
Atlantic coast with breezy onshore flow developing. Considerable 
stratocu across the Atlantic will push onshore and tend to become 
scattered as it moves farther inland toward the interior. There may 
be a few light showers across the Atlantic but they should tend to 
dissipate as any move onshore. High temperatures will be milder in 
the upper 60s to lower 70s.

Wednesday-Thursday...Temperatures will climb back into the upper 70s 
to near 80 on Wednesday due to a warm south to southeasterly flow 
provided by high pressure well to our northeast along with an 
approaching mid-level trough and associated cold front to our west. 
Increasing moisture and weak isentropic lift will bring an isolated 
shower threat during the afternoon hours, but most places will 
remain dry.  

As the cold front continues its approach Wednesday night, southerly 
low-level winds will increase moisture transport and rain chances. 
Lift provided by impulses of energy aloft and upper-level divergence 
combined with sufficient moisture will result in scattered-numerous 
showers and isolated lightning storms. There is still some 
uncertainty in timing (GFS is still faster/ECMWF slower), but as of 
right now, timing focuses greatest rain chances along and west of 
the I-4 corridor beginning late Wednesday night into Thursday 
morning. Areas south and east look to see greatest potential 
beginning a bit later Thursday morning and into the afternoon hours. 
Strong storms are not expected, but wind gusts up to 40 mph, heavy 
downpours, and lightning strikes will be possible.

High temperatures will be a bit tricky for Thursday depending on the 
speed of the front and with cloud cover/precip, but northern and 
interior areas will be upper 60s to low 70s while the Space and and 
Treasure Coasts could still reach the mid 70s. 

Friday-Mon (modified previous)... Post frontal drying on Fri will 
bring clearing and cooler conds Fri into Sat. Medium range guidance 
keeps a rather progressive pattern over the Srn Conus with a 
relatively short window between weather systems; roughly over the 
upcoming weekend. Confidence will be a little lower than normal on a 
completely favorable weather window for Sunday, as yet another 
system approaching in the southern stream is depicted for early next 
week. A closed and evolving surface low over the eastern Gulf of Mex 
is depicted just upstream early next week, and the system may bring 
the chance of stronger storms around Sunday/Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...
Mainly VFR conds expected into Tue for area terminals. SCT-BKN 
marine stratocu across the Atlantic should begin to move onshore 
overnight, initially from KMLB-KSUA with some chance for MVFR CIGs 
at times with CIGs near 3 kft. SCT-BKN clouds near 030-040 expected 
aft 15z. Easterly winds will become breezy for cstl terminals as 
well from 15z into the afternoon on Tue.

&&

.MARINE...
Tonight...NE winds to 15-20 knots will veer to the east. Will keep 
higher seas to 6-7 ft across the central/srn gulf stream waters 
where the SCA continues. SCEC overnight for the remainder of the 
ECFL Atlantic waters.

Tuesday...East winds to 15-20 knots near shore and up to 20 knots 
offshore will continue poor to hazardous marine conditions. Will 
expand the SCA to the offshore Volusia waters in the afternoon with 
SCEC for Brevard/Volusia near shore areas.

Wed-Sat (modified previous)...Strength of high pressure centered 
well north of Florida will keep likelihood of headlines in place for 
hazardous winds/seas into through Wednesday.  Poor to hazardous 
conditions continue Wednesday night into Thursday as next cold front 
approaches and pushes through the area. Combination of winds/seas 
and swell will produce 6-8 ft seas over the outer waters and gulf 
stream segments. Some improvements are likely late week into early 
weekend as broader high pressure transits just north off the waters.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Tue...Breezy east flow is expected Tue from late morning into the 
afternoon with min RHs 50-55 percent across the interior. Dry 
weather is expected.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  46  69  60  77 /  10  10  10  20 
MCO  47  72  59  79 /   0  10  10  20 
MLB  51  70  64  79 /  10  10  10  20 
VRB  51  72  64  78 /  10  10  10  20 
LEE  46  71  57  80 /   0   0  10  10 
SFB  46  71  58  80 /   0  10  10  20 
ORL  49  71  58  79 /   0  10  10  20 
FPR  52  72  64  77 /  10  10  10  20 

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST Tuesday for Sebastian Inlet 
     to Jupiter Inlet 0-20 nm-Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 
     20-60 nm-Volusia-Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 20-
     60 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM to 10 PM EST Tuesday for Flagler 
     Beach to Volusia-Brevard County Line 20-60 nm.

&&

$$

Volkmer/Combs/Smith