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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Melbourne, FL (MLB)

FXUS62 KMLB 220200

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
900 PM EST Wed Feb 21 2018

Tonight...Strong high pressure centered near Bermuda with a ridge 
axis extending to south Georgia is providing a moderate to fresh 
east/southeast breeze in the low levels.  Evening soundings showed 
precipitable water around 1 inch but the GOES precipitable water 
product indicates some drier air advecting in from the east. A few 
spots had sprinkles with one band of scattered to broken clouds that 
crossed the coast. The GFS picked up on the drying advecting in, so 
don't expect anything more than a small chance of sprinkles late 
tonight along the Treasure Coast, where the breezy east flow will 
push some more clouds ashore.  Won't add a chance for that low 
impact event to the forecast though.

Our current forecast is going several degrees above MOS mins.  This 
looks good along the coast since winds are unlikely to decouple.  We 
should have some record warm lows especially south of Cape Canaveral.
Slightly drier air may allow winds to decouple late across the 
interior and spoil record warm lows there. 

The low level flow overnight looks too strong for any significant 
fog.  The HRRR and local WRF don't indicate any over the north 
interior, so have tweaked mention of patchy fog to west of I-4.


.AVIATION...Mainly VFR.  A brief MVFR ceiling is possible with 
clouds pushing onshore from the Atlantic.  Any late night fog over 
the north interior is expected to be MVFR and along/west of I-4.


Tonight-Thu...Stout Atlantic high pressure ridge is producing a long 
fetch of moderate easterly flow.  The models show occasional 15-20 
knot flow, especially in the southern waters.  Also, the increased 
duration of this onshore flow will allow for a swell component to 
affect the coastal waters.  Buoy 41009 is close to 5 feet, so it's 
conceivable that there are 6 foot waves out in the Gulf Stream. 
Therefore will continue an exercise caution statement there.


.CLIMATE...After several record warm lows yesterday and several
likely today, a few more are possible Thu.  Here are the record 
warm minimum temps and the year set: 

               February 21     February 22     February 23  

Daytona Beach    68-1989         69-2008         69-2013
Orlando Intl     68-1989         69-1945         69-2013
Sanford          66-2002         68-2008         70-2013
Melbourne        70-1989         69-2003         69-2008
Vero Beach       72-1961         73-1961         73-1961
Ft. Pierce       73-1961         73-1961         71-1979




IMPACT WX...Cristaldi