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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Melbourne, FL (MLB)

                            
000
FXUS62 KMLB 171856
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
256 PM EDT Wed Oct 17 2018

.DISCUSSION...

Current-Tonight...Deep layer high pressure ridging east-west 
oriented continues over the area. Temperatures aloft remain very warm 
and limited moisture will keep the area with minimal precipitation 
chances. KMLB's WSR-88D shows isolated shower activity over the 
local coastal waters off of the Cape and one lone cell across north 
Brevard County. 

A weak frontal boundary will drift south into north-central FL 
overnight reaching Volusia/Lake counties just ahead or near 
daybreak. The atmosphere remains very dry and we will be lucky to 
realize isolated showers here late in the night/near sunrise. Lows 
will range from the L-M 70s interior and coastal Volusia to the 
U70s along the Space/Treasure coast beaches. 

Thu...The front will continue to weaken and become barely 
discernible through the day across north-central FL. Deep layer 
moisture will only marginally increase. Will be generous with 30-
40pct PoP chances along/north of I-4 and 20pct or less southward 
with an ISOLD lightning storm chance north of I-4 as well. Continued 
warm and mild as the prevailing onshore flow pushes ocean modified 
air acrs the state...max temps in the U80s/L90s...min temps in the 
L/M70s.

Thu night-Fri night...The 12z GFS showed a slower moving backdoor 
front sagging into east central Florida.  This is not surprising 
given the associated shortwave trough aloft lifting into the 
Canadian Maritimes and a rather stout 500mb ridge holding over 
the Florida peninsula. Higher moisture is still shown reaching 
northern sections Thu night and central sections Fri before 
pivoting east into the coastal waters Fri night. With this 
scenario, will have to show a north/south PoP gradient, with 
overall lowered values, especially in the south.

Temperatures will remain above normal, but with more onshore flow 
and cloudiness associated with the weakening front, highs on Fri 
should be held down slightly in the mid-upper 80s along the coast
and upper 80s to around 90 inland. Overnight lows will continue 
well above normal in the lower-mid 70s. Of course, MLB will 
probably make a run at a record warm low or two.

Previous Discussion...
Sat-Tue... A period of unsettle weather is in store for central 
FL as a coupled jet pattern sets up over the NE CONUS. This 
feature will result in a progressive WX pattern as it pulls a 
strong high pres ridge from the central plains Sat evng to of the 
Mid Atlc coast by Mon evng. The ridge will push a few new cold 
front into central FL, but is expected to push offshore before the
front can clear the state. Will keep a chance of shras/slgt chc 
of tsras in the fcst thru the weekend as the front approaches. 
Precip chances diminish on Mon as the front works its way into 
south FL, then rebound on Tue as the post frontal ridge pushes 
into the W Atlc, allowing return flow to develop that will push 
the frontal boundary back into central FL. 

No change in airmass thru thru Sat, but cooling down to near climo 
avgs acrs the I-4 Corridor Sun into Mon as the front stalls over the 
Treasure Coast/Lake-O region.  

&&

.AVIATION...ESE winds at 5-10 kts continue through this afternoon 
with very limited shower activity expected thru sunset. Patchy fog 
development is possible again after 08Z tonight for interior 
terminals and eastward to KDAB, reducing to MVFR vsbys thru sunrise, 
but will hold off on mention in TAFs. Otherwise, VFR persists.

&&

.MARINE...Today-Tonight...High pressure ridging continues across the 
area. Isolated showers remain in the forecast, though moisture 
remains limited. E/ESE winds 6-12 kts becoming NWRLY toward daybreak 
Thu across the Volusia coast as a weak front slides southward 
into the northern waters. Seas 2-3 ft near shore and 3 ft offshore. 

Thu...The weak boundary will stall/become hardly discernible thru 
the day. This will promote a fresh to moderate E/NE flow across the 
area. Wind speeds will steadily increase areawide during the 
afternoon to around 15 kts by late in the day over the open Atlc, 
possibly 15-20 kts north of the Volusia-Brevard County line. 

Since timing of winds have backed off, models are coming in with 
lower sea heights, remaining 2-3 ft for much of the day, possibly 
increasing to 4 ft well offshore and potentially 4-5 ft offshore 
north of the Volusia-Brevard County line by late in the day. Sea
heights may approach 5-7 ft away from the coast Thu night north of
Sebastian Inlet.

Friday-Monday...A frontal boundary will weaken as it slides down 
to around Canaveral on Fri. This will cause a period of poor to 
hazardous boating conditions across the northern waters Thu night 
and Fri as easterly winds 15-20 knots set up. A high pressure 
ridge will rebuild across the waters on Sat and provide a 
southerly flow near 10 knots, with significantly improved boating 
conditions. Another (stronger) frontal boundary is forecast to 
drop into the waters Sat night and provide a period of poor to 
hazardous boating conditions that lasts into Mon.

&&

.Climate...Record warm lows for Wednesday, Oct. 17 in jeopardy:

     DATE  TEMP YEAR     
SFB 17-Oct  72  1959...currently 74
MLB 17-Oct  75  2007...currently 81

Record highs for Wednesday, Oct. 17:  
     
     DATE  TEMP YEAR    
DAB 17-Oct  90  1925 
MCO 17-Oct  95  1925 
SFB 17-Oct  90  1952 
MLB 17-Oct  90  1975 
VRB 17-Oct  90  1974 
FPR 17-Oct  93  1906

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  73  87  75  85 /  20  40  50  60 
MCO  73  92  74  90 /   0  20  20  40 
MLB  77  90  77  88 /  10  20  20  40 
VRB  73  88  75  88 /  10  20  20  20 
LEE  75  91  73  89 /  10  40  20  40 
SFB  74  90  74  88 /  10  30  30  50 
ORL  75  92  74  90 /   0  30  30  40 
FPR  73  88  74  88 /  10  20  20  20 

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Sedlock
LONG TERM...Lascody 
AVIATION...Smith