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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Melbourne, FL (MLB)

FXUS62 KMLB 280147

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
947 PM EDT Sun May 27 2018

...Risk of Flooding Will Continue Across Space and Treasure 


Tonight-Memorial Day...Alberto will continue to move to the 
northwest over the northeast Gulf of Mexico and push ashore Monday 
across the western Florida panhandle.  There is a dry slot on its 
eastern side that was already affecting our interior sections. A 
moisture plume was to the east of the dry slot as deep southerly 
flow extended down into the northwest Carribean.  

The forecast challenge for tonight and into Monday will be the 
interplay between the dry slot and the moisture plume.  There is a 
potential for training echos to set up again, primarily during 
daytime heating.  The models look similar in showing this would be 
in the area where we have the Flood Watch in effect, from about 
Brevard to the Treasure Coast and Okeechobee.  

For the overnight period...most all of the daytime heating generated 
convection was in association with the moisture plume, with the 
focus across our southern counties, especially Martin and St. Lucie 
counties. Showers have been diminishing there, but will hold onto 
chance PoPs overnight due to the feed of deep moisture.

The models look mostly dry over the north half overnight, but plan 
to hold onto a slight chance of showers, since the low levels are 
very moist.  


Moist cyclonic flow around Alberto should produce periods of MVFR 
ceilings. Loss of heating will limit shower chances overnight. The 
highest chance would be KFPR-KSUA where moisture is greatest.

On Monday, daytime heating should generate scattered to numerous 
showers and isolated storms.  The most persistent showers should be 
from about KMLB-KSUA where the atmosphere will be very moist.  The 
interior terminals and KDAB won't have as much moisture, but greater 
heating should still generate a round of convection at most sites.


Tonight-Monday...Hazardous conditions for small craft operation will 
continue over most of the waters.  Southeast winds 20-25 knots will 
veer and be from the south on Monday at similar speeds.  Seas 5-7 
feet nearshore and up to 8-9 feet offshore should only drop about a 
foot on Monday.  A few rounds of scattered to numerous showers and 
isolated storms with gusty winds 30-35 knots should affect the 
waters, especially along the Gulf Stream. 


FL...Flood Watch through Monday evening for Indian River-Martin-
     Northern Brevard County-Okeechobee-Southern Brevard County-
     St. Lucie.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Monday for Flagler Beach to 
     Volusia-Brevard County Line 0-20 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT Monday for Sebastian Inlet 
     to Jupiter Inlet 0-20 nm-Volusia-Brevard County Line to 
     Sebastian Inlet 0-20 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Monday for Flagler Beach to 
     Volusia-Brevard County Line 20-60 nm-Sebastian Inlet to 
     Jupiter Inlet 20-60 nm-Volusia-Brevard County Line to 
     Sebastian Inlet 20-60 nm.