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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Melbourne, FL (MLB)

FXUS62 KMLB 180119

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
920 PM EDT Fri Aug 17 2018


ECFL remains under the influence of an anomalously dry air mass with 
mean PWAT values much lower than climo, as shown in the latest XMR 
RAOB, which dropped from 1.55" late this morning to 1.25" at 00Z.
This appears to be associated with the western flank of a SAL pouch, 
seen in GOES-16 RGB Dust and Split Window imagery, although local 
sky condition this afternoon did't show typical haze which generally 
accompanies SAL.

KMLB/TPBI doppler radars show diurnal convection quickly fizzled out 
by 800 PM, while cluster of heavy showers/isolated T-storms continue 
upstream well offshore the Treasure Coast. Current forecast shows a 
small late night PoP along the Martin county coast and given current 
radar returns, will need to keep this in place. Will watch radar 
trends for another 60-90 minutes to determine whether this needs to 
be expanded north some along the Treasure Coast. Otherwise, will make
the usual late evening tweaks to skies/winds/temps.


.AVIATION...VFR. Added VCSH to the VRB-SUA corridor for possible 
approach of coastal showers 04Z-13Z.


.MARINE...Current buoy obs show light SE-S flow below 10KT with
seas 2FT. Given 41010 is only 2.6FT, will bring seas down to 2FT a 
little earlier than previously indicated.


IMPACT WX...Sedlock


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 331 PM EDT Fri Aug 17 2018/

Weekend...Bermuda Ridge axis bisects the peninsula yielding dominant 
S/SE flow across C FL this weekend. An area of dry air breaks away 
from the center of the high, positioning over the central forecast 
area, with PWATs near 1". This will provide for abnormally low rain 
chances on Saturday north of Orlando/Cape Canaveral, thus keeping 
less than 20% PoPs over the interior. A surge of moisture advances 
north from the Bahamas into south FL and across the Treasure 
Coast/Lake Okeechobee, leading to PoPs Saturday at 30-40 percent.
Moisture returns to normal Sunday with ridge axis slipping 
southward and PWATs increasing to near 2". Rain chances 40-50% 
areawide except north of I-4 where lingering dry air will keep 
chances near 30 percent.

High temps will climb to the mid 90s for rain-free areas Sat, low 
90s along the coast and near Lake Okeechobee with similar highs in 
the low to mid 90s Sunday.

Mon-Sat...Summertime cycle of diurnal convection continues through 
this week as the east and west coast sea breezes push over the 
interior. Ridge axis will slowly lift northward keeping dominate SE 
flow over the area. PoPs 30-50 percent each day through next 
weekend with seasonal highs in the low to mid 90s.


Mostly VFR through tonight.  There's a small chance for storms until 
about sunset at the interior terminals.  Also, there's a slight 
chance of showers after midnight at KSUA.  On Sat, moisture will 
continue to increase from the south and bring a chance of showers or 
storms from about KSUA-KMLB.  Drier air will limit the chance for 
afternoon storms at north and interior terminals. 


Tonight...The surface ridge axis will slowly settle back towards 
central Florida. Winds will respond across the north by veering to
the south southwest before daybreak and staying generally 10 
knots or less. Winds in the south will continue southeast near 10 
knots. Seas 2 feet except up to 3 feet well offshore. Conditions 
will be dry except for a slight chance of showers over the 
southern waters after midnight. 

Previous Discussion...

Weekend...Good boating conditions this weekend with ridge axis 
across the central peninsula. Dominant S/SE flow 5-10 kts with seas 
2 feet. A pocket of dry air will move into northern marine zones, 
keeping rain chances negligible Saturday; returning to near 30
percent Sunday with offshore moving storms.

Mon-Sat...Increasing rain chances over the waters as the week 
progresses; continuing SE flow at 10-15 kts with seas 1-2 feet 
building to near 3 feet in the northern Gulf Stream waters.


No sites along the Saint Johns river are at or above Flood Stage. 
However, Astor, Sanford and Lake Harney forecast points remain in 
Action Stage. Refer to the latest Hydrologic Statements (RVSMLB) for 
the latest stage and forecast information.


DAB  74  92  75  91 /  10  10  10  30 
MCO  75  95  76  93 /  10  20  10  40 
MLB  78  91  77  90 /   0  20  20  40 
VRB  75  90  75  90 /   0  30  20  50 
LEE  76  95  77  94 /  20  20  10  40 
SFB  75  95  76  93 /  10  20  10  40 
ORL  75  95  76  93 /  10  20  10  40 
FPR  75  90  75  89 /  10  30  20  50