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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Melbourne, FL (MLB)

                            
785 
FXUS62 KMLB 220941
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
441 AM EST Thu Feb 22 2018

.DISCUSSION...

...On Track for a Record Warm February for Much of East Central 
Florida...

Today...An E/SE flow will continue today around strong high 
pressure centered near Bermuda. Airmass remains quite dry but
enough low level moisture will produce some brief light
showers/sprinkles this morning. Stratocumulus clouds will pancake
beneath stout subsidence inversion and produce a partly cloudy 
day. Max temps will again be above average with mid 80s interior
and around 80 at the coast. 

Tonight...Forecast model soundings show an increase in low level 
moisture which should produce a higher coverage of showers over
the Atlc. The persistent onshore flow should push some of these
showers onshore the coast overnight. So have drawn a chance for
showers along the coast, and slight chance for portions of the
interior. Min temps will remain above average ranging from the 
mid 60s interior/Volusia to the lower 70s along the immediate 
coast south of the Cape. 

Fri-Sun...Strong mid/upper level ridge remains entrenched across 
Florida from late week through the weekend, keeping well above 
normal temperatures in place. Highs will continue to range from the 
low 80s along the coast to mid 80s over the interior, with overnight 
lows in the 60s for most areas. Surface ridge axis of high pressure 
over the west Atlantic, initially north of the area Friday, will 
gradually slide southward and across the region into the weekend as 
a cold front moves into the southeast United States. This will veer 
southeast low level winds to a more southerly direction. Areas of 
slightly higher moisture will round the western edge of the ridge 
and across the area in this flow, leading to periods of isolated 
showers at times. However, with a more suppressed environment due to 
strong ridge overhead, rain chances do not exceed 20 percent. 

Mon-Wed...Trough moving through the Midwest and eastward toward the 
Mid-Atlantic coast will flatten mid level ridge across the area, as 
it retreats westward. This will allow weak front to finally shift 
southward across the area Tuesday. However, this boundary will bring 
little change in temperatures across the area, as winds quickly veer 
onshore behind the front, keeping warmer than normal temperatures in 
place. Latest model guidance not showing much hope for a significant 
increase in precipitation with this front or with elevated onshore 
flow behind the boundary. However, isolated showers will continue to 
be possible each day. 


&&

.AVIATION...Mainly VFR. Brief MVFR CIGs possible with clouds 
pushing onshore from the Atlantic thru 14Z. Light winds over the
interior terminals through 13Z then East winds 10-15 knots all
terminals.

&&

.MARINE...
Today/Tonight...Strong Atlantic high pressure ridge is producing 
a long fetch of moderate easterly flow. The pressure gradient will
support 10-12 knots across the northern waters and occasional 
15-20 knots across the southern (Treasure coast) waters. In 
addition to the choppy, short period wind waves, there is a swell 
component that will produce combined seas of 4 to 5 feet with up 
to 6 feet in the Gulf Stream. Therefore will continue an exercise 
caution statement there. Models indicate a higher coverage of
Atlc showers developing tonight.

Fri-Mon...Ridge axis initially north of the area Friday gradually 
shifts southward and across the area during the weekend before 
moving south of central FL into early next week. Winds respond by 
veering from the southeast Friday to a more S/SW direction toward 
late weekend into early next week. Wind speeds up to 15-20 knots 
will be possible, mainly south of the Cape late week, but otherwise 
remain 10-15 knots through the rest of the period. Swells will keep 
seas up to 6 feet offshore through much of the weekend, but will 
fall to 3-5 feet into early next week.  

&&

.CLIMATE...After several more record warm lows yesterday, a few 
more are possible Today and Friday for coastal sites. Here are 
the record warm minimum temps and the year set: 

                    February 22     February 23  

Daytona Beach         69-2008         69-2013
Orlando Intl          69-1945         69-2013
Sanford               68-2008         70-2013
Melbourne             69-2003         69-2008
Vero Beach            73-1961         73-1961
Ft. Pierce            73-1961         71-1979

Also, with temperatures forecast to remain well above normal through 
the remainder of the month, a record warm February looks on track 
for Orlando, Melbourne, Sanford and Vero Beach, with Daytona Beach 
and Fort Pierce likely coming in second warmest.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  81  66  81  64 /   0  20  20  10 
MCO  87  66  86  64 /   0  20  20  10 
MLB  83  70  82  68 /  10  30  10  10 
VRB  82  70  83  67 /  10  30  10  20 
LEE  86  65  85  64 /   0  10  20  10 
SFB  85  66  85  64 /   0  20  20  10 
ORL  87  66  84  66 /   0  20  20  10 
FPR  82  70  82  67 /  10  30  10  20 

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Kelly
LONG TERM....Weitlich