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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Melbourne, FL (MLB)

                            
684 
FXUS62 KMLB 121358
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
958 AM EDT Sun Aug 12 2018

.UPDATE...
Today-Tonight...Early to mid afternoon initiation of convection 
expected once again today with W/SW flow across the eastern 
peninsula. Morning showers and isolated storms are confined to the 
Gulf Coast but will build eastward through the day. SW flow will 
limit the east coast sea breeze from pushing inland, thus a 
collision will occur along the coast. Local models in agreement on 
an eastward collision but reflect a slight difference in coverage; 
lowered PoPs to chance over the interior as a result. General storm 
motion will be to the east/northeast at 10 to 15 mph with frequent 
lightning and gusty winds up to 50 mph. Earlier start to convection 
should end most development near sunset.

Another hot afternoon with highs inland in the low 90s potentially 
climbing higher along the coast depending on sea breeze and 
convective initiation.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR this morning with early afternoon start to 
convection. SW flow should confine the sea breeze to the coast, 
leading to boundary collisions along the coast. Highest storm 
coverage expected for coastal terminals as storms move northeast 
across the state.

&&

.MARINE...
Today-Tonight...Light SW flow through early afternoon before a shift 
in the nearshore waters to E with the development of the east coast 
sea breeze. Thunderstorms in the mid afternoon should remain along 
the immediate coast and push offshore through sunset. Mariners 
should keep an eye to the skies for quickly approaching storms from 
the SW. Flat nearshore waters build to 1-2 ft over the Gulf
Stream.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No sites along the Saint Johns river are at or above Flood Stage, 
with Astor, Sanford and Lake Harney forecast points remaining in
Action Stage. Refer to the latest Hydrologic Statements (RVSMLB) 
for the latest stage and forecast information.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  91  75  92  73 /  70  30  50  30 
MCO  92  74  92  74 /  50  20  50  20 
MLB  90  75  91  74 /  70  30  30  20 
VRB  89  74  92  75 /  70  30  30  20 
LEE  91  75  92  76 /  50  20  50  20 
SFB  92  74  93  75 /  50  20  50  20 
ORL  92  74  93  76 /  50  20  50  20 
FPR  89  74  92  73 /  60  30  30  20 

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

Smith/Weitlich/Glitto