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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Melbourne, FL (MLB)

                            
000
FXUS62 KMLB 180010
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
810 PM EDT Sun Jun 17 2018

.DISCUSSION...

Latest RAP40 analysis reveals anticyclonic flow thru the H100-H70 
lyr extending from the Carolina Coast to the NE GOMex, generating a 
steady E/NE breeze acrs central FL. This particular flow regime 
tends to produce low diurnal tsra activity over the east central 
peninsula, and this one was no different. Late aftn convection along 
the I-4 Corridor btwn Deland and Kissimmee did manage to generate 
excessive CG ltg and strong wind gusts over W Orange/NW Osceola 
counties, but most of the CWA remained dry this aftn. By sunset, 
convection had either dissipated or had packed on the west 
peninsula.  

Upstream low/mid lvl moisture is on the low side with H100-H70 mean 
RH values blo 70pct north of Sebastian Inlet, and btwn 70-75pct 
south of the Inlet. Furthermore, mid lvl omega/upr lvl divergence 
fields show a neutral or weakly sinking airmass...lcl lapse rates 
thru the H70-H50 lyr arnd 5.5C/KM are marginally unstable at best. 

Strength/depth of the onshore flow may allow a brief isold low-
topped shra to dvlp over the Gulf Stream south of Sebastian Inlet, 
that could advect onshore. N of the Inlet, airmass is too dry for 
any shras to survive outside of the Gulf Stream long enough to 
survive their would be trek over the cool shelf waters. Aftn fcst 
package looks fine with slgt chc shras along the immediate Treasure 
Coast from Vero Beach southward. Remainder of the CWA will be dry. 
Light winds and clearing skies will allow overnight temps to cool to 
to into the L/M70s.  

&&

.AVIATION...Thru 19/00Z.
Sfc Winds: Thru 18/04...E/NE 7-11KTS bcmg vrbl AOB 3KTS. Btwn 18/12Z-
18/15Z...bcmg E/NE 8-12KTS...coastal sites S of KTIX ocnl G18-22KTS. 

Vsbys/WX/Cigs: Btwn 18/06Z-18/12Z...coastal sites S of KVRB slgt chc 
MVFR shras. Btwn 18/12Z-18/18Z...S of KVRB-KSEF chc MVFR shras...N 
of KVRB-KSEF slgt chc MVFR shras. Aft 18/18Z...S of KVRB-KLAL chc 
MVFR shras/IFR tsras...N of KVRB-KLAL slgt chc MVFR shras/IFR tsras.

&&

.MARINE...
Broad ridge axis extending from off the Carolina Coast into the Deep 
South will generate a light to gentle E/NE breeze acrs the lcl Atlc. 
Seas AOB 2FT...mainly in an E/NE background swell. Isold shras in 
the Gulf Stream, mainly S of Sebastian Inlet. 

&&

.HYDROLOGY...(prev disc)
Heavy rainfall near and upstream from Lake Harney has caused a 
slight rise to continue for the St Johns River Above Lake Harney 
near Geneva. The river is expected to remain in Action Stage this 
week, rising very slowly through late week before leveling out.  

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.

&&

$$

Forecast Update...Bragaw
Radar/Impact WX...Cristaldi
Radar/Aviation....Smith