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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Melbourne, FL (MLB)

                            
000
FXUS62 KMLB 180725
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
325 AM EDT Mon Jun 18 2018

.DISCUSSION...
Today and Tonight...High pressure will build swd toward the region
from the mid Atlc coast. E-NE flow combined with gradual airmass
drying will bring a lower than normal rain chc to the area. HRRR 
guid is indicating a few showers along the Space and Treasure csts
including the adjacent waters during this morning with a small 
chance spreading inland as well during the course of the afternoon
before drying becomes more prevalent late. SB instability an
inland moving SB boundary, and marginally suitable moisture 
justifies a mention of an isolated storm or two well inland from 
mid to late afternoon. 

As high pressure becomes situated closer to the coast tonight 
will keep pcpn wording out of the local forecast with diminishing
clouds and mild overnight temps in the U60s-L70s and light to 
calm winds.

Tue-Wed...A considerably drier airmass continues to advect into the 
area from the east, as high pressure ridge over the west Atlantic 
extends across central Florida. PW values on Tuesday are forecast to 
be around 1.3 inches, with MOS PoPs all coming in below 20 percent. 
Any isolated shower/storm development will be limited to sea breeze 
collision near to just west of Lake County late in the day through 
early evening. So will maintain slight rain chances across this area 
for now, with most of the area remaining dry. Models indicate some 
moisture recovery into mid week, but rain chances still remain 
relatively low around 20 percent along the coast and 30 percent over 
the interior where boundary collisions are more likely. 

The lack of convection and mostly to partly sunny skies will make 
for a hot afternoon each day, with highs reaching the upper 80s to 
low 90s along the coast and low-mid 90s over the interior.   

Thu-Sun...Ridge axis of high pressure shifts south of the area into 
late week as weak frontal trough builds into the southeast United 
States. This will allow low level winds to become more westerly and 
remain offshore into next weekend as ridge axis remains south of the 
area. Moisture will continue to increase in this flow, with rain 
chances returning to more seasonable values. PoPs range from 30-40 
percent on Thursday, increasing to 50-60 percent Friday and into the 
weekend. Highs will generally range from the upper 80s to low 90s 
with lows in the low to mid 70s. 

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conds prevalent the next 24-30hrs. Brief cloud bases and or
cigs psbl NR FL035-045 during isold shra along the coast this 
morning then spreading inland, remaining isolated in nature from 
16Z-24Z.

&&

.MARINE...
Today and Tonight...Onshore wind conditions will bring a 
small but discernible swell to the area. The combination of wind 
wave and swell should remain below 4 feet over the outer waters 
through tonight with seas around 2 ft closer to the coast.

Tue-Fri...High pressure ridge over the west Atlantic extending 
across the area into Tuesday will shift south of central Florida 
from mid to late week. This will allow a light to gentle E/SE breeze 
on Tuesday to gradually veer offshore into late week. Seas will 
range from around 1-2 feet nearshore and up to 2-3 feet offshore. 
Winds and seas will be higher near increasing showers and storms 
later in the week.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Heavy rainfall last week has caused a slow steady rise of the 
Saint Johns River. The river remains at Action Stage above Lake 
Harney near Geneva and is forecast to continue a slow rise  
through midweek while remaining below flood stage.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  88  71  89  73 /  20  10  10  10 
MCO  93  73  93  73 /  20  10  10  10 
MLB  88  74  88  73 /  20  10  10  10 
VRB  89  71  88  71 /  30  10  10  10 
LEE  93  75  94  75 /  20  10  20  20 
SFB  93  72  93  74 /  20  10  10  10 
ORL  92  74  93  75 /  20  10  10  10 
FPR  89  70  88  70 /  30  10  10  10 

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Pendergrast
LONG TERM....Weitlich