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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Melbourne, FL (MLB)

                            
524 
FXUS62 KMLB 121939
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
339 PM EDT Sun Aug 12 2018

.DISCUSSION...

Current-Tonight...Slow moving convection has developed over the far 
interior from Lake Okeechobee to Lake County. These storms along 
with accompanying outflow boundaries will move toward the east 
and an eventual collision with the east coast sea breeze will
occur from coastal Volusia to the Treasure Coast. Local models in
agreement with the strongest storms centered from Orlando to 
Brevard County late this afternoon to early evening. Storms 
should last through sunset along the coast and push offshore 
overnight, with short lived debris rainfall over land. Seasonal 
lows expected tonight in the low to mid 70s.

Tomorrow...FL remains situated between 2 anticyclones with the 
Bermuda High positioned over the Atlantic and a closed high over 
the GOMEX. Monday, the GOMEX high advances toward the LA coast 
allowing for stronger SW flow to settle in across the peninsula. 
Deep moisture returns across northern areas with PWATs ranging 
from 2" to 1.60" near Lake Okeechobee. Another round of afternoon 
convection expected, with highest storm coverage north of the I-4 
corridor (50%) as the west coast sea breeze moves across the 
state. Coverage will be slightly lower for the Treasure Coast 
(30%) but rain chances slightly higher over Martin Co as storms 
move northward from Palm Beach County. Highs in the low 90s 
areawide, with overnight lows in the mid 70s. 

Tue-Wed...(previous extended)
On Tuesday the low level ridge will makes it way northward to near 
Lake Okeechobee with deeper moisture across srn sections and lower 
PWAT air across the north with continued low level SW flow north of 
the ridge. Will keep rain chances in the scattered range around 30 
percent from Orlando northward to 40-50 percent across srn sections. 
The low level ridge will move northward up the central peninsula on 
Wed allowing low level flow to veer to the ESE/SE. Should see lower 
rain chances overall with 20 percent along the coast to 30 percent 
over much of the interior. High temps 90-91 along the coast to 92-94 
across the interior.

Thu-Sun...
Low level southeast flow around the Atlantic ridge will be the 
dominant weather pattern for late week and the upcoming weekend. 
Will have POPs in the 30-40 percent range most days with highest 
rain chances across the interior each afternoon as the east coast 
sea breeze boundary moves inland each day with low level SE winds. 
The lowest rain chances looks to be Friday for this period in the 20-
30 percent range as the mid level ridge builds closer and some lower 
PWAT air works into the area from the east. Highs will be in the 
lower 90s coast to mid 90s interior and lows in the mid 70s inland 
to upper 70s near and along the east coast. 
&&

.AVIATION...Scattered showers and storms and outflow boundaries 
generated from this activity will shift east-northeast across the 
interior and collide with the east coast sea breeze just west of I-
95. This will enhance convective development into late afternoon 
along the coast, especially north of KVRB. Any showers or storms 
will produce tempo IFR/MVFR conditions, with convection shifting 
offshore and diminishing into this evening. VFR conditions then 
expected for the rest of the night. 

&&

.MARINE...
Current-Tonight...Generally light SW flow across the marine zones 
with nearshore waters shifting E/ESE with sea breeze progression. 
Thunderstorm coverage mainly over land, but isolated storms may push 
off the immediate coast before sunset. Flat nearshore waters build 
to 1-2 ft over the Gulf Stream.

Monday-Mon Night...SW winds 5-10 kts becoming SE 10-15 kts. Seas 2-3 
ft north of Sebastian, 1 ft southward. Thunderstorm coverage highest 
over nearshore Volusia waters, with storm motion towards the 
northeast.

Tue-Thu...Southerly winds Tue will become SE into mid week. Seas 
around 2 ft will gradually build to 2-3 ft offshore Tue afternoon 
into mid week with winds up 10-15 knots around the Atlantic ridge at 
times. 
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No sites along the Saint Johns river are at or above Flood Stage, 
with Astor, Sanford and Lake Harney forecast points remaining in
Action Stage. Refer to the latest Hydrologic Statements (RVSMLB) 
for the latest stage and forecast information.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  75  91  74  91 /  40  50  30  40 
MCO  75  91  75  93 /  30  50  20  40 
MLB  76  91  75  91 /  40  40  30  40 
VRB  74  92  75  91 /  30  30  30  40 
LEE  75  91  76  92 /  30  50  20  40 
SFB  75  92  75  94 /  30  50  20  40 
ORL  74  92  76  93 /  30  50  20  40 
FPR  74  92  74  91 /  30  30  20  40 

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

Smith/Weitlich/Rodriguez/Glitto