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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Melbourne, FL (MLB)

FXUS62 KMLB 181324

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
924 AM EDT Mon Jun 18 2018

...Summer Rainy Season Takes a Break Today and Tomorrow...

High pressure and drier air nosing in from the western Atlantic 
combined with building heights aloft will lead to abnormally low 
coverage of afternoon showers and thunderstorms over the eastern 
half of the peninsula today. Latest RAP analysis overlaid with 
high-resolution GOES satellite imagery shows the western edge of 
the drier low-level air about 100-150 miles east of our 
coastline. Before that advects in this afternoon, isolated showers
over the Atlantic have a chance of producing a brief period of 
rain along the coast south of the Cape. Otherwise, any chance for 
rain will shift toward the interior as the Atlantic sea breeze 
develops and moves quickly inland with the prevailing onshore 

With that said, will carry small chances for brief showers this 
morning south of the Cape before shifting isolated coverage (and a
small chance for thunder) to the interior from early to mid 
afternoon. Expect showers to shift west of the forecast area 
before sunset leaving most areas dry this evening. 


VFR given prevailing onshore flow and drier air moving in off the
Atlantic. Coverage of afternoon showers and thunderstorms will be
below normal today, with any prospect for a brief SHRA along the
coast this morning (south of KMLB) transitioning to inland areas
from early to mid afternoon. Given precip chances stand at 20% or
less today, opted not to include VCSH (let alone VCTS) in the
latest TAF package. 


Today and Tonight...Slight increase in onshore flow today as high
pressure noses in from the western Atlantic. Northeast to east
winds 5-10 knots transitioning to east 10-13 knots this afternoon
as the sea breeze develops and quickly pushes inland. Seas 1-2
feet this morning, up to 3 feet offshore later today and tonight. 


Heavy rainfall last week has caused a slow and steady rise of the
Saint Johns River. The river remains at Action Stage above Lake 
Harney near Geneva and is forecast to continue a slow rise through
midweek while remaining below flood stage.


DAB  88  71  89  73 /  10  10  10  10 
MCO  92  73  93  73 /  20  10  10  10 
MLB  89  74  88  73 /  10  10  10  10 
VRB  89  71  88  71 /  20  10  10  10 
LEE  92  75  94  75 /  20  10  20  20 
SFB  92  72  93  74 /  20  10  10  10 
ORL  93  74  93  75 /  20  10  10  10 
FPR  89  70  88  70 /  20  10  10  10