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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Melbourne, FL (MLB)

                            
000
FXUS62 KMLB 151912
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
312 PM EDT Mon Oct 15 2018

.DISCUSSION...

Through tonight...Latest GOES 16 Total Precipitable Water shows
a fairly tight moisture gradient across the area. Values range 
from 1.8/1.9 inches north of Orlando to 1.5 inches in Martin 
County. This drier air will continue to work its way northward, 
but until then, will keep a slight chance of showers through this 
evening north of Orlando and west of I-95 where the higher 
moisture resides. 

Light winds and mostly clear skies could allow for some patchy 
fog over the far interior late tonight into early Tuesday
morning. Will also keep keep a slight shower chance in for the
Treasure Coast with onshore flow strong enough to push a shower or
two onshore. Lows will be in the low to mid 70s.

Tuesday...Mid/upper-level high pressure overhead along with
further drying of the atmosphere will keep most of the area rain-
free again. Besides a few showers along the Treasure Coast in the
morning, have only a slight chance of showers during the 
afternoon along the sea breeze from inland Martin county extending
up along the Kissimmee River into southern Lake county. Other 
than that it will be quite warm with low 90s inland and around 90 
toward the coast. A few record highs could be threatened once 
again (see climate section below). 

Tue Night...Deep layer ridging lies over the central peninsula 
situated east-west. This will provide a continued deep SE/ESE flow 
across ECFL. Mainly dry conditions over land with an isolated shower 
possibility over the local coastal waters. Overnight lows remain 
mild and mainly in the L-M70s, but normally cooler rural locations 
may realize U60s.

Wed-Wed Night...Deep layer ridging will remain aligned east-west 
across the central FL peninsula. A weak frontal boundary remains 
forecast to slide into north FL by late day. A light onshore flow 
will continue through the period with mostly dry conditions. Will 
continue slight shower chances in the afternoon for Okeechobee 
County and far interior St. Lucie/Martin counties. Highs will very 
warm again for mid Oct ranging from the upper 80s for the Treasure 
coast to 92-93 across the nrn interior.

...Previous Extended Forecast Discussion...

Thu-Fri...A back door front will move down the FL peninsula as high 
pressure builds behind it toward the mid Atlantic coast. The front 
will usher in a tighter pressure gradient, breezy onshore flow and 
deeper low level moisture will should support scattered onshore 
moving showers Thu afternoon across far nrn sections and then across 
all of east central FL by Friday. Will keep low thunder chances 
across the north Thu aftn and areawide Fri with Atlantic water temps 
still warm, and convergent low level shower bands providing some 
lift. Highs 85-90 Thursday, should drop a few degrees by Friday with 
breezy onshore winds, more cloud cover and higher shower coverage. 

Sat-Mon...Low level flow will return to the SE/S on Saturday ahead 
of the next front that will move through the area Sunday ushering in 
breezy to windy NE-E winds starting Sunday afternoon into Monday. 
Highs will be warm Saturday into the upper 80s to near 90 with 
scattered showers and isolated lightning storms. Scattered onshore 
moving showers are expected Sunday-Monday with some slight relief 
from the heat by next Monday with increased cloud cover and higher 
coverage of onshore moving showers. May see high temps tempered to 
the upper 70s north to mid 80s across the south by next Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR this afternoon. Slight chance of brief showers for 
terminals north of KMCO through sunset. Overnight, winds become calm 
and skies clear allowing for patchy fog development over the 
interior. IFR possible for KLEE/KSFB/KMCO/KISM after 08Z with vsbys 
increasing by sunrise.

&&

.MARINE...

Tonight-Tuesday...Seas will be 2 feet in the nearshore waters and
3 feet offshore. Southeasterly winds will be generally 10 kt or
less north of Sebastian Inlet and 10 to 15 kt south.

Tue Night-Wed Night...SERLY winds into Wed becoming E/ESE late day 
Wed into Wed evening, perhaps a bit ENE /NE along the Volusia coast 
by daybreak Thu morning. Wind speeds 10-15 kts over the open Atlc. 
Seas mainly 2-3 ft nearshore to around 3 ft offshore.

...Previous Extended Marine Forecast Discussion...

Thu-Sat...A back door front will increase onshore winds into late 
week. East winds will increase across the nrn waters Thu afternoon 
and then across the remainder of the waters Thu night into Friday up 
to 15-20 knots. Seas will build to around 7 ft offshore into Thu 
night and Friday causing hazardous conditions for small craft 
operators.

&&

.CLIMATE...

Record highs for today through Wednesday Oct. 17

 DATE  TEMP YEAR   DATE  TEMP YEAR   DATE  TEMP YEAR
DAB 15-Oct  92  1959  16-Oct  91  1936  17-Oct  90  1925 
MCO 15-Oct  93  1919  16-Oct  95  1925  17-Oct  95  1925 
SFB 15-Oct  91  1971  16-Oct  92  1971  17-Oct  90  1952 
MLB 15-Oct  91  1959  16-Oct  90  1959  17-Oct  90  1975 
VRB 15-Oct  94  2009  16-Oct  92  2009  17-Oct  90  1974 
FPR 15-Oct  93  2009  16-Oct  91  2009  17-Oct  93  1906


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  73  89  73  90 /  10  10  10  10 
MCO  74  93  74  92 /  10  10  10  10 
MLB  76  90  75  90 /  10  10  10  10 
VRB  75  89  74  89 /  10  10  10  10 
LEE  73  93  75  93 /  10  10  10  10 
SFB  74  93  74  93 /  10  10  10  10 
ORL  75  93  76  92 /  10  10  10  10 
FPR  74  89  74  89 /  20  10  10  10 

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Combs
MID TERM....Sedlock 
AVIATION...Smith