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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Melbourne, FL (MLB)

                            
000
FXUS62 KMLB 171919
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
319 PM EDT Sat Aug 17 2019

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight-Sunday...May see some lingering convection mainly along 
the coast this evening, but this activity should weaken and push 
offshore by midnight. Rain chances continue to decrease slightly 
into Sunday as drier air moves in with the slow migration 
northward of the subtropical ridge axis into central Florida.
Greatest rain chances will exist north of Okeechobee County and
the Treasure Coast where deeper moisture will persist, with PoPs
ranging from 20-30% along the Treasure Coast up to 50 percent
northwest of a line from Melbourne to Lake Kissimmee. Skies will
start out partly sunny with highs reaching the low 90s. 

Monday...(Previous Discussion) Available moisture drops off 
slightly on Monday as the GFS is showing even more drier air 
moving in out ahead of a westward-moving inverted trough. 
Scattered diurnal convection still expected during the afternoon 
along the seabreezes with the eventual collision over the 
interior. With some drier air moving in, coverage of showers and 
storms shouldn't be as high as Sunday, especially for areas south 
of Melbourne. Northern interior sections will see the higher 
chances with the better moisture and more boundary interactions. 
Also, forecast soundings are showing more dry air aloft to entrain
with downdraft CAPE approaching 1000 J/kg. So while coverage is 
not expected to be as high, storms that do form will have greater 
potential for strong wind gusts. Forecast for Monday has rain 
chances 20-30% along the coast and 40% interior.

Max temps will be around 90 along the coast and low (possibly some 
mid) 90s inland. Lows in the low to mid 70s.

Tuesday-Saturday...(Previous Discussion) Shower and storm chances
increase in the Tuesday/Wednesday timeframe as the previously 
mentioned inverted trough approaches and moves through bringing 
deeper moisture across the area. At the same time, mid-level 
low/troughing begins to re- establish itself across the NE Gulf of
Mexico into northern Florida providing some additional lift. 
Forecast goes slightly above guidance with 60% areawide on both 
Tuesday and Wednesday. By late week into early next weekend, 
onshore flow patterns looks to become more established bringing 
the higher chances for diurnal showers and storms across the 
interior. Forecast has 40-50% chances across the interior and 
30-40% along the coast.

Max temps a couple degrees either side of 90. Lows in the mid 70s.


&&

.AVIATION...SCT-NMRS convection fcst thru late aftn/early evening. 
Thus far, activity has remained rather tame across the I-4 corridor 
and this early shower activity may keep additional development here 
limited over the remainder of the afternoon and early evening. 
Further south slightly later initiation with additional surface 
heating will allow for increased coverage/intensity of storms. The 
ECSB will also provide an additional focus as it ventures inland and 
greets convection moving towards the east coast. Activity is moving 
northeastward at 20-25 kts. Tempo groups in TAFs with brief MVFR in 
quicker moving showers/storms. Some wind gusts in upwards of 30 to 
35 kts locally remain possible. Again, expect the activity to 
diminish during the evening. 


&&

.MARINE...

Tonight...Winds will be out of the south-southwest around 5-10
knots, with seas 1-2 feet. A few strong offshore moving storms
will be possible, mainly through early evening from the Cape
southward. 

Sunday-Wednesday...(Previous Discussion) Slightly lower chances 
for showers and storms Sunday and Monday before increasing again 
on Tuesday and Wednesday. Seas will continue in the 1-2 ft range 
nearshore through Tuesday before building to 2-3 ft on Wednesday. 
Offshore waters will see generally 2 ft seas (maybe 3 ft well 
offshore) through Tuesday before building to 3 ft on Wednesday. 

Winds will be S/SE on Sunday 10-15 kt, and from Monday-Wednesday 
winds will back to ESE/SE with winds around 10 kt.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  73  90  73  90 /  20  50  40  40 
MCO  74  92  75  93 /  20  50  30  40 
MLB  75  90  74  89 /  30  40  30  30 
VRB  73  91  73  90 /  30  30  30  20 
LEE  74  90  75  92 /  20  50  20  50 
SFB  74  92  74  93 /  20  50  30  40 
ORL  75  92  75  93 /  20  50  30  40 
FPR  73  91  74  90 /  30  30  20  20 

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT/LONG TERM...Weitlich 
IMPACT WX/RADAR....Spratt 
AVIATION...Sedlock