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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Melbourne, FL (MLB)

FXUS62 KMLB 230208

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
908 PM EST Thu Feb 22 2018


Tonight...Very little change as rather strong high pressure ridge 
centered west of Bermuda is producing a moderate low level easterly 
breeze. The GFS shows an area of light precip amounts moving into 
the coast after midnight.  Satellite is showing a north/south 
oriented band of clouds just east of the coastal waters, so the 
current small coastal PoP looks good.  Precipitable water remains 
around 1 inch and there is still a rather strong low level capping 
inversion, so rainfall amounts should be less than a tenth of an 

The onshore flow will keep low temps well above normal and there is 
a chance for record warm lows (again) mainly at the coastal sites.

Little change to the previous forecast.


.AVIATION...Some brief MVFR possible along the coast tonight as 
clouds and isolated showers move ashore from the Atlantic.  Most of 
the area will have a chance for MVFR tomorrow as slightly higher low 
level moisture moves across the central peninsula.  


Tonight-Friday...Overall, easterly flow 10-15 knots is forecast. A 
weak inverted trough moving into the coast late tonight might pick 
up winds to around 15 knots behind it.  In any event, a combination 
of short period wind waves and swell will keep seas up to 6 feet in 
the Gulf Stream, so current exercise caution statements look good. 
No substantive changes to the previous forecast.


.CLIMATE...Melbourne will have the only record warm low today, but a 
few additional coastal sites should have a chance for records on 

                    February 22     February 23  

Daytona Beach         69-2008         69-2013
Orlando Intl          69-1945         69-2013
Sanford               68-2008         70-2013
Melbourne             69-2003         69-2008
Vero Beach            73-1961         73-1961
Ft. Pierce            73-1961         71-1979

Also, with temperatures forecast to remain well above normal through 
the remainder of the month, a record warm February looks on track 
for Orlando, Melbourne, Sanford and Vero Beach, with Daytona Beach 
and Fort Pierce likely coming in second warmest.




IMPACT WX...Cristaldi