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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Melbourne, FL (MLB)

FXUS62 KMLB 200158

East Central Florida Forecast Discussion 
National Weather Service Melbourne FL 
858 PM EST Mon Feb 19 2018

(modified prev disc): Stout deep layer high pressure centered 
offshore the southeastern seaboard is producing a brisk low-mid 
level southeast wind flow, although the XMR evening sounding remains 
relatively dry in the mid levels due to subsidence effects from 
layered high pressure nearby. Briefly higher moisture is shown 
rotating onshore mainly over the southern peninsula overnight. The 
models only generate very low precip amounts or a sprinkle along the 
south coast. Will carry a small shower chance for around Cape 
Canaveral south to the Treasure Coast through Tue AM.

Overnight lows will be more mild due to the onshore flow, mainly mid 
60s inland/north coast and around 70 from south Brevard to the 
Treasure Coast.  A few spots may have record warm lows for Tue.

On Tue, the GFS shows the early pocket of higher moisture lifting 
northwestward and affecting the west side of the peninsula.  The 
model only spits out a little precip west of our area late in the 
day, so will go with a dry forecast locally. It will continue warm 
and be even a little more humid as southeast flow boosts dew points 
into the mid-upper 60s. High temperatures will reach the mid 80s 
inland and lower 80s along the coast.


.AVIATION...VFR with higher winds at the coastal zones overnight. A 
brief broken MVFR ceiling of 2000-2500 ft AGL cannot be ruled out 
along the coast as marine stratocu move ashore. Inland areas should 
remain VFR with the exception of KLEE where MVFR ceilings are 
expected late tonight into early Tuesday. 


TONIGHT-TUE...Quite strong high pressure over the Atlantic with an 
axis extending into the southeast U.S. is producing a fresh east-
southeast low level wind flow. Speeds are forecast 10-15 knots 
except over the cooler northern shelf waters (10 knots) and over the 
Gulf Stream (15-20 knots) where an exercise caution statement will 
be necessary. The wave models show 3-4 feet seas nearshore and 4-5 
offshore but with a pronounced wind chop (5-6 second wave periods).


Record warm minimum temps and year set for February 20, 21, and 22.

   February 20             February 21      February 22

Daytona Beach 66-1961        68-1989          69-2008
Orlando Intl  69-1961        68-1989          69-1945
Sanford       68-1961        66-2002          68-2008
Melbourne     68-1961        70-1989          69-2003
Vero Beach    72-1961        72-1961          73-1961
Ft. Pierce    73-1961        73-1961          73-1961