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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Melbourne, FL (MLB)

                            
000
FXUS62 KMLB 151358
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
958 AM EDT Mon Oct 15 2018

.UPDATE...

A few light showers were observed this morning across the Treasure
Coast associated with an area of enhanced moisture with radar 
estimates showing a tenth of an inch or less of accumulation. 
Otherwise most areas were mostly sunny with temperatures already 
in the low 80s/mid 80s as of 930am.

Morning XMR sounding reveals an increase in low-level moisture
since last evening with precipitable water coming in at 1.7 inches.
GOES 16 Total Precipitable is showing this well with most of east
central Florida around the 1.5 to 1.8 inch range. Even with this 
increase in low-level moisture, the atmosphere is still rather 
suppressed due to the mid-level high pressure overhead along with 
a lot of dry air above 700-mb and warm temperatures aloft. This 
will keep most of the area dry, but the HRRR is insistent on 
developing a few showers this afternoon along the sea breeze 
mainly north and west of I-4 across the interior. Will keep 
inherited slight chance of showers in this area with no changes 
otherwise.

Well above average temperatures continue with highs in the upper
80s/near 90 along the coast and low 90s over the interior. A
couple record highs could be threatened today, particularly
Melbourne and Sanford where daily records for today currently
stand at 91 degrees, respectively (see Climate section below).

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions expected through the TAF period although a few
brief broken MVFR ceilings (2500-3000 ft AGL) are possible late 
this morning as the cumulus field develops. A few showers may be 
in the vicinity of LEE, MCO, and SFB this afternoon but chances 
too low to include VCSH. Some patchy fog is possible near the 
interior terminals late tonight into early Tuesday morning but not
confident enough to include yet.

&&

.MARINE...

No changes planned to the inherited forecast with latest buoy
41009 observations showing seas near 3 feet and 5-10 kt SSE winds
this morning. Winds will back to ESE/SE this afternoon with 
speeds around 10 kt north of Sebastian Inlet and 10-15 kt to the 
south. Seas will be 2-3 ft nearshore and 3-4 ft offshore. 

&&

.CLIMATE...

Record highs for Monday Oct. 15 through Wednesday Oct. 17  
     
     DATE  TEMP YEAR   DATE  TEMP YEAR   DATE  TEMP YEAR
DAB 15-Oct  92  1959  16-Oct  91  1936  17-Oct  90  1925 
MCO 15-Oct  93  1919  16-Oct  95  1925  17-Oct  95  1925 
SFB 15-Oct  91  1971  16-Oct  92  1971  17-Oct  90  1952 
MLB 15-Oct  91  1959  16-Oct  90  1959  17-Oct  90  1975 
VRB 15-Oct  94  2009  16-Oct  92  2009  17-Oct  90  1974 
FPR 15-Oct  93  2009  16-Oct  91  2009  17-Oct  93  1906

Record warm lows for Monday Oct. 15 through Wednesday Oct. 17

     DATE  TEMP YEAR   DATE  TEMP YEAR   DATE  TEMP YEAR
DAB 15-Oct  76  1993  16-Oct  77  1933  17-Oct  76  1998 
MCO 15-Oct  74  2009  16-Oct  74  1959  17-Oct  74  1989 
SFB 15-Oct  74  2017  16-Oct  74  2017  17-Oct  72  1959 
MLB 15-Oct  80  2017  16-Oct  79  2007  17-Oct  75  2007 
VRB 15-Oct  77  2017  16-Oct  78  2007  17-Oct  79  1990 
FPR 15-Oct  79  1928  16-Oct  78  2016  17-Oct  77  1985

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  89  73  90  73 /  10  10  10  10 
MCO  92  74  92  74 /  10   0  10  10 
MLB  90  78  90  75 /  10  10  10  10 
VRB  88  77  89  74 /  10  10  10  10 
LEE  93  73  92  75 /  20  10  10  10 
SFB  92  74  92  74 /  20   0  10  10 
ORL  92  75  93  76 /  20   0  10  10 
FPR  88  76  88  74 /  20  20  10  10 

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

Combs/Sedlock/Glitto