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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Melbourne, FL (MLB)

                            
269 
FXUS62 KMLB 140826
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
426 AM EDT Tue Aug 14 2018

.DISCUSSION...
Today...The low level ridge will remain across south FL today 
keeping low to mid level SSW/SW flow across the area into the 
afternoon. Morning PWATs are progd from 1.8 to 2.0 inches with mid 
level temperatures from -7.5 to -8 degs C this afternoon which 
should be supportive of scattered storms developing initially along 
the east coast sea breeze from southern Brevard to the Treasure 
coast and also expect convection to develop and move eastward across 
Lake county toward the I-4 corridor into mid to late afternoon. Late 
afternoon sea breeze and boundary collisions should spark additional 
convection into early evening from Osceola county NNE across 
Orange/Seminole and Volusia counties where low level boundaries 
collide. Showers and storms should then move toward the east coast 
north of Sebastian Inlet into early evening. Some strong storms are 
possible with locally heavy rainfall amounts of two to three inches, 
gusty winds up to 55 mph and frequent lightning with some of the 
strongest storms. High temperatures will reach around 90 along the 
coast to the lower 90s across the interior.

Tonight...Ongoing scattered showers and storms are expected across 
Osceola county into the northern interior and Volusia county with 
boundary collisions from the east and west coast sea breeze and 
outflow boundaries into the evening. Some strong evening storms are 
possible with locally heavy rainfall amounts, gusty winds and 
frequent lightning. Storms are expected to diminish into late 
evening with a low coastal shower chance for the overnight hours 
along the Treasure coast expected. Lows will drop into the lower to 
mid 70s, but warmer along the Brevard and Treasure Coast beaches. 

Wednesday-Thursday...Atlantic high pressure will be located east
of the Carolinas and its ridge extending WSW towards central
Florida on Wed and barely moving through Thursday. PWAT values 
will increase on Wed (as noted from the GFS forecast soundings 
with 2.15 inches in the afternoon). An area of high vorticity will
develop across east central FL on Wed morning and lifts to the 
northeast. However, its possible that this in combination with 
moisture, a few cells could develop across central FL, mainly 
north of the Treasure Coast in the afternoon. By Wednesday night, 
very dry air will move in, reaching a minimum on Thu morning of 
1.28 inches. From the wind pattern, any development of storms will
be towards the inland areas in the afternoon. Temperatures during
the day will reach the lower 90s.

Friday-Monday...For the end of the week and the weekend, the 
atmosphere will remain dry with winds from the southeast, keeping 
the lower rain chances towards the inland areas. The Atlantic 
ridge (from surface to mid levels) extending towards the Florida 
peninsula, will remain across the middle of the state during the 
weekend and Monday. Winds will be then light and from the 
southeast across the Treasure Coast and from the south or 
southwest for the Space Coast and north of Osceola County. High 
temperatures could reach the mid 90s this weekend as the local 
area get surpressed by the high pressure and the dry air that will
push towards east central Florida. 

&&

.AVIATION...
Isolated to scattered convection will develop along the east coast 
sea breeze from KMLB-KSUA and also west of KSFB-KISM line into early 
to mid afternoon. Have indicated VCTS for srn coastal terminals and 
have TEMPO TSRA for nrn terminals from KTIX-KISM northward with 
expected afternoon/evening SHRA/TSRA which will become most numerous 
in the late afternoon and early evening in the KMCO-KDAB corridor 
and eastward toward the coast. Evening SHRA/TSRA will diminish vcnty 
of nrn terminals into late evening with VFR conds overnight.

&&

.MARINE...
Today...S/SW winds to 10 knots will become S/SSE into the afternoon 
hours. Highest shower/thunderstorm chances near shore will be north 
of Sebastian Inlet into this afternoon and evening as storms from 
the mainland move toward the coast. Seas 1-2 ft srn waters to around 
2 ft north of Sebastian Inlet.

Tonight...Southerly winds to 10-15 knots in the evening will 
decrease overnight. Scattered evening storms will affect the nrn 
waters as convection moves off the mainland. Seas 1-2 ft srn waters 
to 2-3 ft offshore north of Sebastian Inlet.

Wed-Sat...Due to the surface ridge extending towards east central
Florida during this period, gentle to moderate breezes will be
from the southeast to south. Seas will range between 2 to 3 feet.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No sites along the Saint Johns river are at or above Flood Stage 
however; Astor, Sanford and Lake Harney forecast points remain in 
Action Stage. Deland remains just below Action stage and will have 
to watch this area if heavy rainfall falls later today. Refer to the 
latest Hydrologic Statements (RVSMLB) for the latest stage and 
forecast information.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  91  74  89  74 /  60  40  40  30 
MCO  92  74  92  75 /  60  50  40  30 
MLB  90  75  90  77 /  40  30  20  10 
VRB  90  73  90  75 /  30  20  20  10 
LEE  91  75  92  76 /  50  30  30  30 
SFB  93  75  93  75 /  60  50  40  30 
ORL  92  76  93  75 /  60  50  40  30 
FPR  90  73  90  74 /  30  20  20  10 

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...Volkmer
LONG TERM...Negron