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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Melbourne, FL (MLB)

FXUS62 KMLB 130804

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
404 AM EDT Sat Oct 13 2018

Today...A weak frontal boundary was difficult to discern at 4 am,  
but based on a small area of showers offshore Cape Canaveral and a
dew point drop lagging back west of the Cape, there must be a 
bend in the front in that area. The GFS even showed a weak frontal
wave. Coastal sections from south Brevard to Martin county still 
had dew points in the low-mid 70s. The GFS shows the front sagging
southward as the weak surface wave pushes east of the coastal 
waters, but southern sections won't get in on the drying that will
be occurring across the north half of the area. Surface dew 
points below 60 degrees are indicated in the north this afternoon.

MOS PoPs are 20-30% from Melbourne to Stuart.  Our current forecast 
has a 20% chance of showers from Vero Beach southward, and am 
planning on keeping that.  High temps should be near to a few 
degrees lower than yesterday, in the mid-upper 80s.

Tonight...Surface high pressure building to the eastern seaboard 
will veer winds to the east.  The frontal boundary will continue to 
be ill-defined as it weakens near our southern areas. The GFS shows 
some easterly flow showers affecting the Treasure Coast, so have 
continued low, 20-30% PoPs there.  Low temperatures will range from 
the mid 60s around Lake George to the lower-mid 70s from south 
Brevard to Martin county.

Sun-Tue...High pressure along the Mid-Atlantic coast will shift 
offshore Sunday, with ridge axis remaining north of the area. This 
will allow winds to become onshore into late weekend, remaining out 
of the E/SE into early next week. Moisture associated with the weak 
front that pushed south will lift back northward into Sunday, with 
rain chances increasing across southern half of east central 
Florida. PoPs continue to range from 30-40 percent, mainly south of 
a line from Orlando to the Cape, with only a slight chance (20 
percent) for showers farther north. As band of deeper moisture lifts 
north of the area into early next week, and ridge aloft remains 
firmly in place across Florida, rain chances will remain low, with 
PoPs across much of the area around 20 percent each day. 

Strengthening onshore flow will return temps to above normal values, 
with highs reaching the upper 80s to low 90s. Overnight lows will 
be in the low to mid 70s. 

Wed-Fri...Mid/upper level ridge remains in place across Florida, as 
a weakening frontal boundary gradually pushes toward the area and 
stalls near to north of the Cape into late week. Moisture associated 
with this boundary will lead to rising rain chances into Thu/Fri 
especially across northern portions of central Florida, with PoPs 
increasing up to 40-50 percent. Highs will still reach the upper 80s 
to low 90s Wednesday, with increasing showers and cloud cover into 
late week keeping max temps closer to normal in the mid to upper 
80s. Lows will remain mild in the low to mid 70s.  


.AVIATION...There's been patchy low clouds/shallow fog producing 
brief IFR-MVFR in the pre-dawn hours, mainly from KTIX southward. 
Drier air will continue to work southward, so it will be VFR at 
the interior terminals and KDAB-KTIX all day and probably at KMLB
too. Moisture will not be scoured out from about KVRB-KFPR-KSUA, 
so local MVFR ceilings are possible there along with a few showers
this afternoon/tonight.


Today-Tonight...A weak frontal boundary will sag slowly into our 
southern waters and hang up tonight.  Northwest-north winds behind 
the front will only be up to 10 knots today, except northeast winds 
in the southern waters should be 10-15 knots.  High pressure will 
push to the eastern seaboard tonight and winds will veer to 
easterly up to 10-15 knots.  Seas 2-3 feet nearshore and 3-4 feet 
offshore.  Small shower chances should mainly be south of Sebastian 

Sun-Wed...High pressure near the Mid-Atlantic coast will shift 
offshore, with ridge axis remaining north of the area. This will keep 
an onshore wind flow across the waters through the period with E/SE 
winds up to around 10-15 knots at times. Seas will range from 2-4 
feet through the period. 


.FIRE WEATHER...Dry air filtering down the peninsula should cause 
RH values to drop a little below 35% for 3-4 hours this afternoon 
northwest of I-4.  Winds will be less than 10 mph, so no significant 
fire weather problems are indicated.



Long stretches of temperatures at or above 70 degrees will come to 
an end for some locations across east central Florida early this 
morning. As of 4am, Daytona Beach and Leesburg have already fallen 
into the upper 60s, with Sanford and Orlando still expected to fall 
below the 70 degree mark by sunrise. Melbourne, Vero Beach and Fort 
Pierce will likely continue their stretches as temperatures look to 
fall no lower than the low 70s this morning.  

Site:           Last Date Below 70:    
Daytona Beach  69 deg. on 06/08/2018
Leesburg       69 deg. on 05/17/2018
Sanford        68 deg. on 06/09/2018
Orlando        69 deg. on 06/09/2018
Melbourne      69 deg. on 06/07/2018
Vero Beach     69 deg. on 07/14/2018
Fort Pierce    69 deg. on 07/07/2018


DAB  86  67  87  75 /   0   0  10  20 
MCO  88  69  90  74 /   0   0  30  10 
MLB  87  73  88  76 /  10  10  30  30 
VRB  87  74  88  75 /  20  20  30  20 
LEE  88  67  90  73 /   0   0  10  10 
SFB  88  69  89  74 /   0   0  20  20 
ORL  88  71  90  75 /   0   0  20  10 
FPR  87  73  88  75 /  20  30  30  20 




SHORT TERM...Lascody
LONG TERM....Weitlich