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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Melbourne, FL (MLB)

                            
686 
FXUS62 KMLB 200936
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
436 AM EST Tue Feb 20 2018

.DISCUSSION...

...Temperatures Will Remain Above Normal through the Weekend...
 
Current...Deep onshore flow continues over the area this morning 
with 915 MHZ Cape wind profilers showing ESE/SE flow from just off
the surface through at least 7.0 kft. Surface high pressure 
continues over the western Atlc with associated ridge axis well 
north of ECFL. Temperatures continue mild and well above normal 
with 60s over the interior/Volusia coast and 70s along the 
Space/Treasure coasts. Winds above the surface continue to average
20-25 kts and continue to not be overly concerned about fog 
potential, but rather low stratus development towards 
sunrise/early this morning. E/ESE surface winds were light 
inland/Volusia coast and breezy at times along the immediate 
Space/Treasure coasts. KMLB WSR-88D occasionally shows some 
sprinkles over the coastal waters, but dry conditions over land. 

Today-Tonight...Fairly strong surface high pressure continues in 
place over the western Altc thru the period promoting continued 
light to moderate onshore flow across ECFL. ESE winds will approach 
15 mph at times across the interior today with breezy (15-20 
mph)/ocnly gusty conditions along the Space/Treasure coasts. 
Amplified mid-level high pressure ridging continues along the 
southeast U.S./FL coast. This feature continues to keep weather 
systems well north and west of the FL peninsula. Cannot rule out a 
few sprinkles/light shower streaming onshore from the local coastal 
waters during the day with best chances of this happening across the 
Treasure Coast where moisture remains deepest. Most locations will 
remain dry and any locale that does see some of this light/brief 
precip will only realize a trace (locally) or perhaps a few 
hundredths. That being said will add a "Silent 14 PoP" for sprinkles 
for St. Lucie, Martin, and Okeechobee counties. Future forecasters 
can adjust accordingly, especially if a weak "streamer" over the 
local coastal waters ventures onshore northward. 

Unseasonably warm temperatures continue with highs in the U70s/80s 
along the coast and M80s well into the interior. Overnight lows 
remain mild and well into the 60s with L70s likely along the south 
Brevard and Treasure coasts. 925 mb winds are forecast to relax a 
bit late in the night, but remain southeasterly. Any fog potential 
will remain greatest near/north of I-4 and likely patchy. 

A strong (594-596 dm) mid level ridge over the SW Atlc during mid
week is forecast to weaken considerably and retrograde W/SW into 
the Gulf of Mexico this weekend. The low level ridge axis to the
north will keep temperatures above average with a persistent east
to southeast wind flow. Max temps will range from the upper 70s 
along the immediate Volusia coast to the mid 80s inland. This will
likely fall short of any record highs but there will be a better 
chance for a few record warm Min temps along the coast due to the 
persistent onshore flow. Breezy E/SE flow will occasionally 
produce a few showers over the Atlc that cross portions of the 
coast, but overall rain chances look low. The best chance for 
showers at this time is Thu night. The sfc ridge breaks down by 
Monday allowing a weak frontal boundary to sag into the deep 
south, becoming stationary just to our north.

There is still no indication of significant cold air intrusion 
before the end of the month (next Wed). This may result in a 
record warm February for some locations in central Florida, such 
as Orlando and Melbourne. 


&&

.AVIATION...Mainly VFR but will monitor for any pockets of morning 
stratus (MVFR CIGs) that could potentially develop. Winds just off 
the deck too high for surface fog this morning. Guidance suggests 
marine stratocu streaming onto the coast from time to time with OCNL 
BKN-OVC skies, but still mainly VFR. Near breezy/breezy ESE winds 
today, especially along the Space/Treasure coasts where the gradient 
is tighter. Not out of the realm of possibility that we could see a 
few streamers from the Atlc move onto the east coast with a few 
sprinkles. Winds off of the surface do decrease slightly late in the 
night, but at present am not crazy about fog prospects overnight; 
perhaps north and west of I-4 with the greatest chance for this. 

&&

.MARINE...
Today-Tonight...Strong high pressure continues across the western
Atlc with ridge axis north of the local coastal waters. ESE winds
continue 10-15 kts, except 15-20 kts over the Gulf Stream south 
of the Cape where Cautionary Statements will continue for winds. 
Seas 4-5 ft near shore and generally 5 ft (perhaps 6 ft at times) 
over the Gulf Stream. The wind chop will produce 5-6 second
dominant wave periods. Chances for a shower or sprinkle remain 
just slight.

Wed-Sat...The axis of the Atlc high pres ridge will remain draped
over north FL from mid to late week, generating a gentle to 
moderate E/SE breeze. Pressure gradient will be support 10-14 
knots across the north and 15-19 knots across the southern waters.
So small craft will frequently need to exercise caution south of
Sebastian Inlet but do not expect a Small Craft Advisory will be 
needed. Seas 3-5FT Wed, building to 5-6FT in the Gulf Stream by 
daybreak Thu into Sat as the persistent erly flow begins to push 
increasing swells into the adjacent coastal waters. Isolated 
showers from time to time.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record warm minimum temps and the year set:

              Feb 20          Feb 21           Feb 22

Daytona Beach 66-1961        68-1989          69-2008
Orlando Intl  69-1961        68-1989          69-1945
Sanford       68-1961        66-2002          68-2008
Melbourne     68-1961        70-1989          69-2003
Vero Beach    72-1961        72-1961          73-1961
Ft. Pierce    73-1961        73-1961          73-1961

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  81  67  81  63 /  10  10   0   0 
MCO  85  67  86  64 /  10   0   0   0 
MLB  82  70  83  68 /  10  10   0  10 
VRB  82  70  83  68 /  10  10   0  10 
LEE  85  67  86  64 /  10  10   0   0 
SFB  84  66  86  63 /  10  10   0   0 
ORL  85  68  86  64 /  10  10   0   0 
FPR  82  69  82  68 /  10  10   0  10 

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Sedlock
LONG TERM....Kelly
AVIATION...Sedlock