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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Melbourne, FL (MLB)

FXUS62 KMLB 231318

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
918 AM EDT Fri Aug 23 2019

GOES Derived Total Precip Water values this morning ranged from 2.1-
2.3 inches across Okeechobee and the Treasure Coast to 1.7-1.8 
inches across northern Lake and NW Volusia counties. Morning PWATs 
on observed soundings ranged from 1.99 inches at the Cape to 2.27 
inches at Miami. Surface pressure analysis has the tropical easterly 
wave approaching the SE FL coast this morning and it is forecast to 
move toward the southern peninsula this afternoon. Deeper convection 
off SE FL this morning should transition toward the Okeechobee 
county and the Treasure Coast through late afternoon as the wave 
axis moves onshore. Additional convection will also develop in the 
scattered range from the Orlando area north and west. Little change 
expected to current forecast package, though will add a very low 
Flood risk to the HWO across southern sections where higher PWAT 
airmass and approach of the tropical wave will likely bring some 
locally heavy rainfall to southern sections for the remainder of 
today and portions of the Treasure coast tonight. 


The approach of an easterly wave across the southern peninsula and 
deepening moisture will lead to a higher coverage of showers and 
scattered storms mainly south of a KISM-KTIX line this afternoon. 
For nrn terminals, from KDAB-KLEE convective coverage should be 
lower with a higher CHC for a mid to late afternoon storms across 
interior sections for that nrn corridor. SCT SHRA in the KTIX-KSUA 
corridor this morning will transition inland with TSRA CHCs 
increasing for srn cstl terminals aft 17z and interior terminals aft 
18z. Convection will be ending for the nrn interior terminals this 
evening but should continue a CHC for SHRA/TSRA in the KMLB-KSUA 
corridor with deep tropical moisture and low level SE flow leading 
to coastal convection moving onshore from the ATLC overnight.


E/ESE winds across the ECFL Atlantic waters will becoming ESE/SE into 
late afternoon to 10-15 knots. Seas generally near 3 ft near shore 
and up to 4 ft well offshore. Numerous showers and a chance of 
lightning storms.


DAB  89  76  89  74 /  40  30  40  20 
MCO  92  75  92  75 /  40  20  50  20 
MLB  88  78  88  76 /  60  40  60  30 
VRB  88  75  89  74 /  60  40  60  40 
LEE  93  76  92  76 /  40  20  40  20 
SFB  92  75  92  76 /  40  20  40  20 
ORL  92  76  91  76 /  40  20  40  20 
FPR  88  75  90  74 /  60  40  60  40