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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Melbourne, FL (MLB)

                            
000
FXUS62 KMLB 150854
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
454 AM EDT Wed Aug 15 2018

.DISCUSSION...

Today...A drier air mass is forecast to reach south Florida today
as a high pressure over the western Atlantic brings its ridge to 
central Florida. By early afternoon (the usual time for the 
development of convection) higher PWAT values will be north of 
Osceola and Brevard counties with higher instability as well. With
a southeast to south wind flow and the development of the sea 
breeze, storms will concentrate across Osceola and Brevard 
counties and will slowly move to the north. Although, outflow 
boundaries could aid in the development of additional storms with 
erratic movement. A few strong storms are possible with locally 
heavy rainfall amounts of up to two inches, gusty winds of 30 mph
and frequent lightning with some of the stronger storms. 
Elsewhere, limited shower activity is expected for the Treasure 
Coast. High temperatures today will reach the low 90s by early 
afternoon.

Tonight...As the afternoon convection dissipates, drier air will 
reach our local area, reducing rain chances to 10 to 20 percent. 
Low temperatures will range from the low to mid 70s.

Thu...Drier air will begin to move in from the east as the low
level ridge axis lifts north across central Florida. Isolated
showers possible along the coast south of the Cape will transition
to the interior quickly so will keep a small 20 PoP along the
immediate coast. But farther north, moisture will be higher with
precipitable water values 1.8-1.9 inches. So expect scattered
showers and storms across the north interior during the afternoon.
WIll hold onto a small 20 PoP across interior Volusia and Lake
counties into the evening. Max temps in the lower 90s coast and
low to mid 90s interior.

Fri...Ridge axis is forecast to reach north Florida and drier air
should overspread more of the area. There will also be a strong
mid level ridge overhead which will produce subsidence/ 
suppression so this looks like the driest day. Have held onto a 
less than 20 PoP across the interior but this may be generous. 
With less clouds and precip coverage, expect more widespread mid 
90s across the interior.

Sat-Tue...Mid level trough will redevelop across the eastern CONUS
this weekend. That will push a sfc trough into the southeast U.S 
and weaken the mid level ridge. The low level ridge axis will slip
south across central FL and moisture will gradually increase. Rain
chances will return to climatology (30-40 percent) Sun-Tue. High 
temperatures will continue to reach the low 90s over most areas, 
but mid 90s will continue to be possible over the interior.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions will prevail for most of the TAF sites this morning 
with the exception of a brief reduction in visibility for the 
KSUA/KFPR terminals. However, it should be brief in time and be 
greater than 6 SM. For this afternoon, lower coverage of SHRA/TSRA 
than previous days is expected and it should be limited for KMCO and 
northern sites. Around sunset, showers should dissipate and VFR 
conditions should return for all TAF sites.

&&

.MARINE...
Today/Tonight...A high pressure to our east and its associated 
ridge across central Florida today, will keep gentle breezes 
generally from the southeast and up to moderate near the coast of 
Volusia county this afternoon. Gentle to moderate breezes tonight.
Seas will remain at 2 to 3 feet today and tonight.

Thu-Sun...The Atlc ridge axis will be located across north Florida
late this week which will produce an E-SE flow around 10 knots.
Drier air will advect in from the east on the south side of the
ridge axis and lower rain chances especially Friday. Then the
ridge axis will slip back to the south this weekend as a sfc
trough pushes into the Southeast states. This will result in a 
light offshore flow redeveloping across the northern waters early
morning Sat and Sun. But a SE sea breeze will develop during the 
afternoon.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No sites along the Saint Johns river are at or above Flood Stage. 
However, Astor, Sanford and Lake Harney forecast points remain in 
Action Stage. Refer to the latest Hydrologic Statements (RVSMLB)
for the latest stage and forecast information.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  90  76  90  75 /  30  10  20  10 
MCO  92  75  94  75 /  40  40  30  10 
MLB  90  76  91  77 /  40  10  20  10 
VRB  90  75  90  75 /  20  10  20  10 
LEE  93  76  94  76 /  30  30  30  20 
SFB  93  76  94  76 /  40  20  30  10 
ORL  92  76  93  76 /  40  30  30  10 
FPR  90  75  90  74 /  20  10  20  10 

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Negron
LONG TERM....Kelly
AVIATION...Negron