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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Melbourne, FL (MLB)

FXUS62 KMLB 171852

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
252 PM EDT Wed Jul 17 2019


Current-Tonight...Scattered storms from near Port Mayca, Palm Bay 
and DeLand will continue transition toward the interior into the 
late afternoon and early evening hours as the east coast sea breeze 
moves inland. 15Z Cape sounding shows fairly steep mid level lapse 
rates and sfc based CAPE of 4914 J/KG along with DCAPE of 802 J/KG, 
MDPI 1.18, and WINDEX of 46 knots. Environmental parameters should 
support a few stronger storms across the interior later this 
afternoon into early evening with wind gusts to 45-50 mph possible 
along with locally heavy rain and frequent lightning. Will continue 
highest evening POPs in the scattered range mainly west of I-4 with 
activity diminishing by late evening. Lows will range from the mid 
70s interior to some upper 70s near the east coast.

Thu-Sat (previous)...Persistence based forecast will be continued 
each day with the subtropical western Atlc ridge remaining across 
central FL. Inland areas will be favored for higher pcpn chcs due to 
afternoon boundary collisions and weakly onshore component steering 
level winds. A couple of weak upr disturbances moving across GA/N FL 
Thu and into Fri wl partially erode influence of the local ridge to 
the north of the local area, but not enough to significantly affect 
PoP from N-S attm. Expect highs in the L-M 90s and lows in the Mid 
70s. with 20-30 PoP coastal Co's and 35-45 pct inland. 

Next Week (previous)...Looking ahead for any changes to forecast 
regime, which is typically dependent on surface ridge placement this 
time of year, shows only subtle hints as weakening of the Western 
Atlc ridge by the middle of next week. Positioning across central FL 
early in the week will keep a coastal -vs- inland PoP split with 
deep moisture and the weak wind environment continuing to favor 
inland areas for best chcs of daily measurable rains. A broader and 
fuller latitude upper wave advertised to enter the SE states and N 
Gulf by Wed will help raise PoP areawide toward the end of the 
forecast period at midweek, and likely continuing toward the end of 
the work week as well. 


A more active day is expected this afternoon into the late evening 
with scattered showers and storms mainly focused across the interior 
peninsula. Coastal sites will see brief VCSH through mid afternoon 
then expect dry conditions once the sea breeze pushes inland. Latest 
high resolution models and current visible satellite show increasing 
instability over the FL peninsula, with showers and storms already 
developing along the sea breeze. Impacts are likely this afternoon 
at MCO/SFB/ISM/LEE as storms move slowly to the west-southwest 
though storm motion along the sea breeze will be more variable. Have 
refined the timing of the TEMPO groups and VCTS for when storm 
impacts are likely.  


Tonight...SE winds to 10 knots this evening will become southerly 
overnight. Seas 1-2 ft early will increase late to 2 ft near shore 
to 2-3 ft well offshore.

Thu-Sat...Favorable winds and seas with dominant surface ridge over 
the marine area. Winds largely 8-13 kts or less with seas 1-3 ft. 

Extended...Early next week shows continuation of favorable open 
water conditions with S-SE winds becoming onshore in the afternoon. 
Seas 2-3 ft. 


DAB  74  90  75  91 /  20  20  10  20 
MCO  75  94  75  93 /  20  40  10  30 
MLB  77  90  77  90 /  20  20  10  20 
VRB  75  90  74  91 /  20  30  10  20 
LEE  76  94  76  93 /  30  40  20  40 
SFB  75  94  76  94 /  20  30  10  30 
ORL  76  94  76  94 /  20  40  10  30 
FPR  74  90  74  91 /  20  30  10  20