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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Midland/Odessa (MAF)

                            
000
FXUS64 KMAF 192009
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
309 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2019

.DISCUSSION...

Hot temperatures have returned to the CWA this afternoon under a
thin cirrus canopy. The dryline has pushed east to the far eastern
CWA at press time and should begin to retreat westward in the next
few hours, coupled with pressure falls associated with a weak 
short wave trough ejecting over the Panhandle. As the dryline 
begins to retreat westward, it's possible that there could be one 
or two thunderstorms develop along this feature, especially over 
the western Low Rolling Plains and the lower Trans Pecos, where 
visible satellite imagery shows some cumuli percolating over 
northern Terrell County. While the overall coverage is low (less 
than 20%), the conditional threat of severe wind, and to a lesser
extent hail, is somewhat high given an expected "inverted-v" type
sounding and marginal deep layer shear. Therefore we've carried 
positive mention of severe thunderstorms over these areas for the 
evening hours. If the cap holds on, though, it's also plausible
that nothing will occur.  

Short wave ridging will be the rule tomorrow, and with a robust
low-level thermal ridge developing over the CWA, temperatures will
have no problem topping 100 F outside of the mountains, with the
mercury forecast to hit 106 to 110 F along the Rio Grande. We'll
be close to advisory criteria in a couple of spots, but have opted
for now to hold off and let the mid shift decide as more short-
term guidance becomes available. With a stout EML in place, no
precipitation is forecast. Regardless of the magnitude of the
heat, it's very critical to recognize the threats of heat and heat
stress and promote heat safety. It's also imperative for folks to
know to "beat the heat and check the seat" as child-related heat
fatalities are almost always preventable.   

As we get into the weekend, an anomalously cool upper low over 
the northern Rockies phases with a weakness in the upper flow over
the desert Southwest. This will in turn put us under south- 
westerly flow aloft. Lower thicknesses aloft will translate to 
slightly cooler (albeit a relative term) highs, while the dryline 
will mix to the eastern CWA during the late afternoon hours. This 
will also mean that we could see one or three diurnally-driven 
thunderstorms along and east of the dryline.

Quasi-zonal flow aloft is forecast early next week before another
anomalously cool upper low reloads over the northern Rockies.
Downstream ridging over the Plains states will strengthen...will
this mean the arrival of the long-awaited Death Ridge? Right now,
we have temperatures around normal for the first half of the work
week. This may need to be adjusted upward should upper heights
build faster than advertised. We also have low-order PoPs in the 
extended forecast, more or less aligned with climatology this time
of year.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     70 104  75 100 /   0   0   0  20 
Carlsbad                       67 104  68 101 /   0   0   0  10 
Dryden                         73 106  77  99 /  10   0   0  20 
Fort Stockton                  71 104  74 101 /   0   0   0  20 
Guadalupe Pass                 69  95  68  94 /   0   0   0  10 
Hobbs                          65 101  66  98 /   0   0   0  10 
Marfa                          58  96  61  95 /   0   0  10  20 
Midland Intl Airport           70 104  75 100 /   0   0   0  20 
Odessa                         69 104  75 100 /   0   0   0  20 
Wink                           66 107  70 102 /   0   0   0  20 

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.

&&

$$

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