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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Little Rock, AR (LZK)

                            
000
FXUS64 KLZK 201943
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
243 PM CDT Fri Sep 20 2019

.SHORT TERM...Tonight Through Sunday
An upper ridge continues over the southeastern U.S. with an upper 
trough over the western U.S. and the remants of Imelda over Oklahoma 
and Arkansas. The remnants of Imelda will move through Arkansas 
tonight and Saturday morning. The best rain chances Saturday will be 
in the northwest part of the state as the system moves north. Expect 
the cloud cover to linger over much of the area through early 
afternoon. Breaks in the clouds should develop during the afternoon 
but the cloud cover will help to keep temperatures down Saturday, 
and temperatures will only be slightly warmer on Sunday. Highs 
Saturday will be in the lower 80s to lower 90s and Sunday will be 
in the mid 80s to lower 90s.

&&

.LONG TERM...Sunday Night Through Friday
High pressure across the Southeastern US will continue to break down 
and push east, allowing a trough and associated cold front to sweep 
into the area from the west. This will increase chances for rain 
across the state Sunday night and into early portions of next week, 
as well as keep temperatures cool. In fact, highs Monday and Tuesday 
should range from the upper 70s to lower 90s statewide. Likewise, 
lows Monday night/Tuesday morning are expected to range from the 
upper 50s to upper 60s.

Weak H500 ridging and surface high pressure will try to build back 
into the Lower Mississippi Valley and Southern Plains as we approach 
midweek, but it will be short-lived as another upper level low 
across the Desert Southwest approaches late next week. At this time, 
model solutions suggest the vort max will move through the Middle 
Mississippi Valley, just north of the Natural State. Therefore, 
although slight at this time, expect the best chances for rain to be 
across the northern and western portions of the state. Although 
temperatures should be slightly warmer than the early portions of 
the week, highs should stay in the upper 80s and lower 90s. 

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     68  85  69  86 /  40  20  10  10 
Camden AR         69  89  70  90 / 100  10  10  10 
Harrison AR       68  83  69  83 / 100  30  10  60 
Hot Springs AR    69  86  71  87 / 100  10  10  10 
Little Rock   AR  69  87  70  88 / 100  10  10  10 
Monticello AR     67  90  69  90 /  80  10  10  10 
Mount Ida AR      69  85  71  86 / 100  10  10  10 
Mountain Home AR  68  85  70  84 /  50  30  10  50 
Newport AR        68  86  69  87 /  30  10  10  10 
Pine Bluff AR     68  88  69  89 /  90  10  10  10 
Russellville AR   69  86  71  86 / 100  20  10  20 
Searcy AR         68  86  69  87 /  60  10  10  10 
Stuttgart AR      67  87  69  89 /  70  10  10  10 
&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term...51 / Long Term...CROSS