Preview of NWS' New Version of Forecast
This preview is not operational and should not be used for support decisions.

Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Little Rock, AR (LZK)

                            
000
FXUS64 KLZK 160813
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
313 AM CDT Mon Sep 16 2019

.SHORT TERM...Today Through Tuesday Night

The short term forecast will remain similar to previous days...with 
SFC high pressure situated across NRN portions of the CWA or points 
just NE...and upper level riding overhead. This will keep most areas 
dry...and temps above normal. Highs will continue in the upper 80s 
to upper 90s...with lows in the 60s to mid 70s. No major variances 
from this setup expected through Tue night. 

&&

.LONG TERM...Wednesday Through Sunday

Significant changes will not be forth coming this morning as medium 
range models remain in relatively good agreement in the synoptic 
scale. There are some differences in the smaller scale details as 
the period progresses concerning a disturbance moving through the 
northern gulf at this time and an approaching upper trough. For now, 
will follow the thinking of previous shifts and lean towards the 
ECMWF which is not as aggressive with these features but has trended 
more towards the GFS on the latest 00z runs.

Period initiates with H5 ridge remaining over the state providing a 
continuation of the very warm temperatures of late. Meanwhile, an 
upper level feature will be moving into the Texas coastal plain 
while a large upper trough moves into the pacific northwest.  

As the trough moves into the northern Rockies by the end of the 
week, it will force the upper trough to be pushed off to the east. 
This will allow for a return of deeper moisture. Precipitation 
chances are in the forecast for Friday but only slight chance to 
chance pops can be justified at this time. 

Model differences begin to reveal themselves this weekend with the 
timing of a cold front as the aforementioned upper trough moves into 
the northern plains. GFS remains more progressive with this feature 
while the ECMWF lags behind with its timing. Tried to split the 
timing between the models but even so, precipitation chances are not 
expected to be very high going forward but there is at least some 
hope. 

Temperatures will remain well above average early in the period as 
southerly flow continues. Readings will be tempered somewhat over the 
weekend as cloud cover increases and precipitation chances return.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     95  70  95  70 /   0   0   0   0 
Camden AR         98  72  98  72 /   0   0   0   0 
Harrison AR       91  68  91  69 /   0   0   0   0 
Hot Springs AR    95  73  96  73 /   0   0   0   0 
Little Rock   AR  95  73  96  73 /   0   0   0   0 
Monticello AR     97  73  98  73 /   0   0   0   0 
Mount Ida AR      97  70  97  70 /   0   0   0   0 
Mountain Home AR  93  69  94  69 /   0   0   0   0 
Newport AR        95  70  95  69 /   0   0   0   0 
Pine Bluff AR     96  72  97  72 /   0   0   0   0 
Russellville AR   95  71  95  72 /   0   0   0   0 
Searcy AR         95  70  95  70 /   0   0   0   0 
Stuttgart AR      94  72  95  71 /   0   0   0   0 
&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term...62 / Long Term...56