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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Little Rock, AR (LZK)

                            
000
FXUS64 KLZK 211149
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
649 AM CDT Sat Sep 21 2019

.UPDATE...

Updated to include the 12z aviation discussion.

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions prevailed overnight into this morning at all TAF 
locations. Temporary MVFR conditions are still possible at all 
locations, except KHRO and KBPK, before 14z for patchy areas of 
fog and low ceilings. VFR conditions should continue after 14z. 
KHRO and KBPK has VCSH mentioned this afternoon for precipitation 
moving across northern Arkansas. Winds will be southerly at 10 to 
15 knots with gusts up to 20 to 25 knots across the higher 
elevation of the Ozarks. 

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 353 AM CDT Sat Sep 21 2019)
SHORT TERM...Today Through Sunday Night

The current synoptic setup can be characterized as upper level 
ridging anchored firmly in place across the southeastern CONUS, 
meanwhile to the west, a deepening trough is traversing the 
northern half of the Rockies. Between these two features, 
southwesterly flow is featured across the Southern Plains. 

The remnants of Imelda has phased with a series of passing upper 
level disturbance located north and west of the state. Showers 
and thunderstorms were ongoing across the TX Panhandle and 
portions of western and central OK associated with these impulses.
This activity will propagate northeastward through the day today.
Additional activity may develop near these features during the 
afternoon hours, thus included slight chance to chance PoPs 
across northwestern AR. Elsewhere across the state, dry conditions
are anticipated under partly to mostly cloudy skies. Highs on 
Saturday will top out in the mid 80s to the lower 90s. 
South/southwest winds may become gusty this afternoon with winds 
approaching 20 to 25 knots across the higher elevations of the 
Ozarks. 

Sunday, upper ridging to our east relaxes a bit as the trough
ejects into the Northern Plains. As this happens, a deepening
surface low will trek eastward invof the Great Lakes dragging an
accompanying cold front across the Southern Plains. This frontal
boundary will approach northern AR by Monday morning. Rain chances
will increase in proximity to the boundary as it drops south
encompassing the northwestern half of the state. Rain chances will
persist into the long term portion of the forecast. Temperatures 
on Sunday will be similar to Saturdays highs before cloud cover 
and precipitation build into the region. Overall, rain amounts 
appear light and should average less than half an inch across the
CWA. &&

LONG TERM...Monday Through Friday

Through the period, H500 ridging will remain in place just south of 
the area with a slight southeastward shift by the end of the period. 
Well north of the area, the pattern will remain fairly active as 
several troughs progress eastward along the Canadian border. 

At the surface, a cold front will progress south across the state at 
the beginning of the period which will briefly allow high pressure 
to build in. By Tuesday into the middle of the week as an upper 
trough progresses across the northeastern US and the ridge begins to 
translate southeastward, the surface ridge will quickly shift east. 
The front will then lift back to the north and southwesterly flow 
will be in place across the region. 

Occasional rain chances will be in place through the period, largely 
associated with the surface front in the vicinity. However, rainfall 
totals will be fairly low. Temperatures through the period will be 
above normal, but cooler than what has been observed for much of 
September so far. 

Lastly, if you're reading this and are curious about what YOUR 
National Weather Service office in North Little Rock does on a daily 
basis, please come out and visit with us during our open house today 
between 10 AM-4 PM. Also, if you know any children that may be 
interested in weather, bring them out with you! They will have the 
opportunity to visit with meteorologists as well as law enforcement 
officers, fire fighters, emergency managers, ARDOT employees and 
more.

&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&

$$


Aviation...JONES