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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Little Rock, AR (LZK)

                            
000
FXUS64 KLZK 212009
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
309 PM CDT Sat Sep 21 2019

.SHORT TERM...Today Through Monday

Isolated showers across northern AR are dissipating this
afternoon, although will keep low-end PoP for any additional
diurnally-driven convection through evening. Elevated winds will
continue through the afternoon hours and subside thereafter,
except across northern AR where a tighter pressure gradient will
keep winds around 10 kts overnight. 

Attention then turns to an incoming upper trough that will cross
the Rockies Sunday. This will help squash the persistent upper
ridge across the southeast and will usher in a modest cold front
Monday. Sufficient moisture and instability will support scattered
to numerous showers and storms, especially across northwestern
counties, with slightly lesser chances elsewhere. Ridging across
the Gulf will encourage the front to slow and then stall across
central AR through the end of the period. Parameters are not
widely supportive of severe weather, although a few stronger
storms will be possible. 

Temps this period will remain several degrees above average 
through the weekend. By Monday, temps will drop a few degrees
across the northern half of the state behind the front. Across the
south, temps will remain several degrees above average. 

Cooper

&&

.LONG TERM...Monday Night Through Saturday

At the beginning of the period, upper ridging centered over the Gulf 
of Mexico, which will keep a frontal boundary stalled over Arkansas. 
Several disturbances will move around the periphery of the ridge, 
and will interact with the front through mid-week, which will keep 
scattered showers and thunderstorms in the forecast.

Late in the week, the upper ridge will, unfortunately, build back to 
the north, which will push the front, or what's left of it, back 
toward the plains and mid Mississippi Valley. So, kiss the rain 
chances goodbye...again...for now. 

Needless to say, temperatures will remain above seasonal averages... 
but you probably knew that already. 

57

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     69  88  70  85 /   0  20  40  30 
Camden AR         70  91  72  90 /   0  10  10  30 
Harrison AR       69  84  64  81 /  10  40  60  10 
Hot Springs AR    71  88  72  86 /   0  20  30  40 
Little Rock   AR  70  89  72  87 /   0  10  30  40 
Monticello AR     70  92  71  90 /   0  10  10  30 
Mount Ida AR      71  87  71  85 /   0  20  40  40 
Mountain Home AR  69  87  66  82 /  10  40  60  10 
Newport AR        68  88  71  85 /   0  10  40  30 
Pine Bluff AR     69  90  71  88 /   0  10  10  30 
Russellville AR   71  89  71  86 /   0  20  50  40 
Searcy AR         67  89  70  85 /   0  10  40  40 
Stuttgart AR      69  89  70  87 /   0  10  20  40 
&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term...COOPER / Long Term...57