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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Little Rock, AR (LZK)

                            
000
FXUS64 KLZK 231938
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
238 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2019

.SHORT TERM...Tonight Through Wednesday
Want the bad news first? No? Well, here it is anyway...

The bad news is, at least in this forecaster's opinion, there 
doesn't look to be any prolonged cooldown coming in the next seven
days. 

Current analysis shows a slow-moving cold front extending from
northeast into western Arkansas, with showers and isolated
thunderstorms developing near it. These will move eastward through
the evening hours, as the front shifts southward and slows down as
it hits nearly parallel upper flow. There should be an enhancement
in convection later tonight, as an upper level system moves
through and interacts with the surface boundary. 

The front will continue to slow down and will stall out very close
to central Arkansas over the next 24 hours. Additional showers and
thunderstorms will fire near the boundary, keeping the highest
rain chances over much of the western and central portions of the
state. Though this front will likely dissipate, another frontal 
boundary will approach Arkansas by the end of the period, which
will enhance rain chances right at the end of the period, at least
in the northwest half. 

Through the period, temperatures will be largely be dependent on 
cloud cover and any rain that falls, as well as the position of 
the stalled boundary. So, there's at least some brief relief from 
the nasty temperatures we've been treated to the last few weeks
(that's the good news, such as it is). 
&&

.LONG TERM...Wednesday Night Through Monday
The long term period begins with a broad longwave H500 trough 
over the Northern US progressing eastward, and a cutoff low over 
the desert southwest. At the surface, broad anticyclonic flow over
the northern Great Plains and Midwest will drive a cold front 
into the Ozarks, with the leading edge of the boundary likely 
stalling in N AR, and bringing increased chances for scattered 
showers and thunderstorms Thursday. Temperatures on the back end 
of the week should stay cooler in the northern portion of AR with 
highs in the mid 80s, while to the south of front, warmer 
temperatures near the lower 90s can be expected. 

By Friday morning, quasi-zonal upper flow returns to the CONUS and 
the cutoff low is ingested, becoming an open wave. Consensus on the 
intensity and location of this perturbation is weak for now, however 
it looks to eject over SE KS/W MO as a weak shortwave Saturday, once 
again bringing more rain chances to NW AR through Saturday evening. 
Dry and settled conditions should occupy the remainder of the 
period, with southerly surface flow keeping temperatures warmer than 
normal across southern AR, and near normal in the northern half.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     63  80  67  87 /  10  20  30  60 
Camden AR         73  87  70  92 /  30  50  10  10 
Harrison AR       63  75  66  83 /  20  50  40  70 
Hot Springs AR    71  80  70  88 /  50  60  20  30 
Little Rock   AR  70  81  70  89 /  30  50  10  30 
Monticello AR     72  87  70  91 /  20  30  10  10 
Mount Ida AR      71  80  69  87 /  50  70  20  40 
Mountain Home AR  62  78  66  85 /  10  40  40  70 
Newport AR        62  81  67  88 /  10  20  30  50 
Pine Bluff AR     71  83  69  90 /  30  40  10  20 
Russellville AR   69  78  69  87 /  40  60  30  50 
Searcy AR         65  81  67  87 /  20  30  20  50 
Stuttgart AR      68  82  69  89 /  20  30  10  30 
&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term...Smith / Long Term...Green