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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Little Rock, AR (LZK)

FXUS64 KLZK 191127

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
627 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2019


Currently seeing some scattered cloud cover across southern AR
with patchy fog expected. VFR conditions are expected through this
afternoon, with scattered -RA across the state later Thursday 


.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 345 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2019)
SHORT TERM...Today Through Friday Night

Main focus during the short term portion of the forecast will be
impacts from the remnants of TS Imelda which is currently 
providing significant rainfall to areas east of Houston. Upper 
ridging remains in place across the southern US, extending to the 
northeast. At the surface, other than Imelda, high pressure across
the eastern US coast will be a dominant factor in the short term.

As Imelda drifts north today and moisture increases across the 
region, showers and isolated thunderstorms will begin to develop 
from south to north across the state. Better chances will occur 
during the afternoon hours as temperatures climb into the upper 80s 
to mid 90s. 

Chances for showers and thunderstorms will increase substantially on 
Friday given the close proximity of Imelda to the state. With 
widespread cloud cover and some precip expected for much of the 
day, temperatures should be about 10 degrees cooler than 
Thursday. Assuming KLIT climbs above 90 F today, but remains 
below 90 F on Friday then that would break a late Summer 19 day 
streak of high temperatures at or above 90 F. Any relief would be
well-received at this point...

Rainfall from Imelda will largely be focused across the 
western half of the state, with localized heavy rainfall possible 
across SW AR. Given the recent short term rainfall deficit and 
soil conditions present across the area, the flash flooding threat
appears fairly low attm. Given the increased wildfire danger and 
number of burn bans in place, any rainfall from Imelda would 
likely be appreciated by many. 

LONG TERM...Saturday Through Wednesday

Long term period begins with broad H500 ridging over the E US with 
an adjacent positively tilted trough axis extending from MT to the 
SW US. As this trough progresses eastward and ejects over the great 
plains, cyclonic flow at the surface will drive a cold front south 
into KS, likely stalling as it reaches the AR/MO/KS state area. As 
this front becomes a stationary boundary, it will be the focus for 
precipitation chances in N AR for the first part of the forecast 
period. With increased rain chances across the northern half of AR, 
temperatures are expected to remain cooler with highs in the mid-80s 
while southern AR should see high temperatures near the low-90s. 

By Wednesday of next week, rain chances begin to dwindle yet again 
as upper level flow becomes amplified. Ridging builds across the 
Central US in conjunction with deep troughing over the SW US. Based 
on the GFS, by late next week, this could be the next major 
rain/significant weather producer for the forecast area.


.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.