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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Little Rock, AR (LZK)

FXUS64 KLZK 200534

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1234 AM CDT Fri Sep 20 2019


Updated to include the 06Z aviation discussion below...


Seeing some scattered high cloud cover across the state from
earlier rainshowers. Some patchy fog is possible early Friday
morning, clearing by 13Z. VFR conditions and increasing cloud 
cover are expected Friday morning, with showers expected to track
into the state from the southwest by the afternoon, bringing MVFR


.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 644 PM CDT Thu Sep 19 2019)

Still seeing some isolated showers through the northwest, 
central, and southeastern part of the state. Showers will 
dissipate overnight, by the early morning hours. MVFR ceilings
will be seen with the showers. Otherwise, VFR conditions will be
seen across the state until tomorrow afternoon, when showers will
track into the area from the west.

SHORT TERM...Tonight Through Saturday
An upper ridge continues over the eastern U.S. with low pressure 
over the western U.S. and tropical depression Imelda over southeast 
Texas. Imelda will be the major Arkansas player in the short term, 
moving northeast through Arkansas Friday and Saturday. The system 
will bring more showers and isolated thunderstorms to the state 
Friday after a bit of a lull overnight. The precipitation should be 
more widespread on Friday than it was today. Generally a half of an 
inch of rainfall can be expected through Saturday with the heavier 
amounts in west Arkansas. Temperatures will be cooler Friday and 
Saturday with more cloud cover and rain in the area. Highs Friday 
will be in the upper 70s to mid 80s and Saturday in the mid 80s to 
lower 90s.

LONG TERM...Saturday Night Through Thursday
The extended period will be rather unsettled, especially compared to 
the past several weeks. Initially, synoptic high pressure over the 
Southeast US and troughing across the plains will provide 
southwesterly flow aloft over the Natural State. However, as the 
period progresses, expect the flow aloft to become more westerly as 
the trough pushes further eastward into the Lower Mississippi Valley 
Region. A surface cold front will accompany this feature, which will 
help bring widespread rainfall back to Arkansas. The frontal 
boundary should move into the state early next week, with surface 
high pressure and weak H500 ridging returning briefly, before 
another storm system moves through mid-week. At this point, model 
guidance disagrees regarding the second storm system, with the ECMWF 
showing less rainfall, and developing a more robust upper level low 
that remains confined to the Desert Southwest. On the other hand, 
the GFS transitions the upper level low into a trough over the 
plains, and brings widespread rainfall through Arkansas. Given these 
discrepancies, have decided to trend towards lower chances for rain, 
but overall have favored a blend of the two long range models. 
Temperatures will be similar each day, with highs in the 80s and 
lower 90s, and lows in the upper 60s and lower 70s.


.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.