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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Little Rock, AR (LZK)

                            
538 
FXUS64 KLZK 250534 AAC
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1234 AM CDT Sun Jun 25 2017

.DISCUSSION...

Updated for the 06z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail through the period, with only some mid
and high clouds noted at times. A few isolated showers could occur
through 08z in the vicinity of KLIT, but otherwise no weather
impacts are expected during the next 24 hours.

Observations from KADF are still missing so will continue with 
AMD NOT SKED there.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 949 PM CDT Sat Jun 24 2017 )

UPDATE...
HRRR has backed off on the small rain chances over the SE on the
latest run or two but a few very weak returns are showing up on
radar at this time. Temp/dew point spreads are in excess of 10
degrees where the echoes are showing up so most likely nothing
more than sprinkles are hitting the ground. 

With weak short wave still expected to move through and into an 
area that is a little more moist, will keep the silent precip 
chances going. Remainder of the forecast also looks good with only
a tweak or two needed.


PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 300 PM CDT Sat Jun 24 2017 )

SHORT TERM...Tonight through Monday 

The CDFNT that brought the active wx to AR on Fri/Fri night, was 
located well S of AR this aftn. NLY sfc winds behind the fnt contd 
to usher much drier air into the region, as noted by SFC dewpoints 
ranging fm the mid 50s to mid 60s. At the same time just 24 hours 
ago, we were looking at dewpoints in the mid 70s to arnd 80 degrees. 
Meanwhile, a good bit of mainly high lvl clouds have kept mid aftn 
readings generally in the 70s.

Hi-Res model data does show some potential for small rain chcs late 
tngt ovr the SE half of the FA, as a weak upr short wv passes acrs 
the area. With much drier airmass in place in the low lvls, plan to 
not mention any POPS tngt ATTM, but wl let evening shift monitor 
later model data.

Otherwise, still looking at a mostly dry fcst thru the PD sfc high 
pres prevails. We will see a NWLY flow aloft cont as well thanks to 
a broad upr trof ovr the ERN half of the nations, with an upr rdg 
persisting ovr the Rockies. Small chcs for convection wl return to 
the fcst ovr NRN AR later on Mon, as a weak upr impulse drops SEWD 
towards the state. Temps wl cont below seasonal norms the next few 
days, which is not often mentioned for AR in late June.

LONG TERM...Monday Night through Saturday

The extended period will start with high pressure at the surface and 
aloft over the region. This will bring dry conditions, mostly sunny 
skies with highs a bit below normal. On Wednesday, the surface high 
pressure is forecast to move east of AR, as a return south flow 
comes back to AR. Some weak upper energy is possible in northwestern 
AR areas, and with an approaching surface system in the plains, a 
slight chance of convection may develop. But at this time kept the 
chance of rain low due to uncertainty. On Thursday, a bit better 
chance of convection may be possible, as better upper short wave 
energy and improved south flow sets up into AR. The heating in the 
afternoon and early evening will be the best chances, but again only 
a 20 to 40 percent chance is forecast. Friday and into the weekend, 
models do show the best upper lift and a possible frontal system to 
sag closer to possibly into AR, and this would bring the best chance 
of convection. 

As mentioned, temperatures will start mild for this time of year, 
with lows in the 60s and highs in the 80s. A gradually warming trend 
and increase in humidity will be seen as the week continues.

&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&

$$


Aviation...64