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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Little Rock, AR (LZK)

FXUS64 KLZK 220327

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
927 PM CST Mon Jan 21 2019


Latest surface analysis shows moisture increasing over the state 
as southeast winds continue. Dew points have slowly been on the
increase over the western and central sections of the state as the
next system approaches from the west. 

Expecting southeast winds to increase tonight as the pressure 
gradient tightens as the associated warm front approaches the 
state. Current forecast in overall good shape but some minor 
tweaking was needed to the temperatures and dew points to reflect 
current trends. 


.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 227 PM CST Mon Jan 21 2019)
SHORT TERM...Today Through Wednesday

GOES 16 satellite imagery continues to depict an upper level low 
across the Pacific Northwest, with a low amplitude ridge across the 
central US. At the surface, winds are strengthening across the 
Southern Great Plains as lee surface troughing along the easter Four 
Corners region intensifies amidst surface high pressure across 
eastern Midwest.

The 500mb vort max across the western US will approach the Natural 
State through the next 24 hours, bringing rain chances back to the 
forecast area early Tuesday morning through Wednesday. A cold front 
will sweep through the state as the low passes to our northwest. 
There remains a chance that the state will see a quick transition to 
freezing rain, sleet, and snow late Tuesday night through Wednesday. 
At this time, have included very little snow and ice accumulation as 
it appears that this will be yet another race between ample moisture 
and the arrival of subfreezing air. Unfortunately there remains some 
uncertainty with the wintry precipitation forecast, so stay tuned 
for forecast updates.

Winds will remain strong through the period as the front approaches 
and passe through the state. At this time, anticipate winds to 
remain below advisory criteria, but they will be strong with 
isolated sustained speeds between 15 to 20 mph and gusts up to 30 
mph. Otherwise, temperatures will warm up slightly for Tuesday, but 
will drop back again once the cold front sweeps through the state.

LONG TERM...Wednesday Night Through Monday

The long term portion of the forecast will be fairly calm with only 
a few chances at precip across the area and cold air remaining in 
place. Intense H500 low over Ontario/Quebec will help maintain stout 
NW flow across the state and much of the country. 

A few clipper type systems may approach the area but at this time 
only an increase in cloud cover is expected. The trough that is set 
to move through on Saturday could provide enough lift for some light 
precip, but there is quite a bit of disagreement among model 
solutions attm. With the exception of Saturday, have kept the 
forecast dry. Cold fronts will progress across the state late 
Thursday and Saturday. Friday looks to be the coldest day of the 
period with lows in the teens across the north and highs hovering 
near freezing across those some areas during the afternoon hours.


.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.