Welcome to the New NWS' Forecast!
Most changes are behind the scenes, but click here for differences you might notice.

Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Little Rock, AR (LZK)

                            
336 
FXUS64 KLZK 250123 AAB
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion...Update
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
825 PM CDT Wed May 24 2017

.Discussion...

Clouds and light convection over AR associated with the surface and 
upper low pressure systems, continue to rotate around mainly 
northern to eastern areas. Have seen a gradual lowering of coverage 
and intensity this evening. Do expect the clouds to gradually thin 
overnight as the light convection continues to weaken and move east. 
The last areas to see the clouds and light rain will be northeast AR 
and will hold a low chance with some clouds over the northeast into 
the overnight. Otherwise, a northwest wind will bring in cooler 
temperatures with lows from the upper 40s to lower 50s. Dry 
conditions are expected on Thursday, with sunny skies and highs 
mainly in the 70s to lower 80s. (59)

&&

.Prev Discussion.../ Issued 630 PM CDT Wed May 24 2017
.Aviation...

Overall VFR flight conditions with some ceilings will start the 
forecast. Wednesday night the amount of VFR ceilings will gradually 
lower. Light showers with a possible thunderstorm will be seen this 
evening over northern to eastern parts of AR. After sunset, the 
overall light convection will slowly lessen and continue to move 
east associated with a surface and upper low pressure system. Winds 
will be northwest to west at 5 to 15 mph. Wind speeds will lower 
overnight and become west to south on Thursday. (59)

&&

.Prev Discussion.../ Issued 249 PM CDT Wed May 24 2017/

.SHORT TERM...Today Through Friday
Upper low pressure over southern Missouri will move through 
northeast Arkansas this evening and then into Ohio Thursday morning. 
An upper ridge will build over Arkansas for Thursday and Thursday 
night but moves east of the area Friday. 

Scattered showers will continue over the eastern half of the area 
through sunset before dissipating. These showers will be light to 
moderate. Surface high pressure will build over Arkansas tonight 
behind the low pressure system. Dry weather is expected for 
Thursday. Another cold front will move through the Plains Friday and 
as moisture increases over Arkansas rain chances will increase in 
the north. A warming trend will begin on Thursday with highs 
reaching the mid 70s to mid 80s. 

&&

.LONG TERM...Friday Night Through Wednesday

Main forecast challenge is the timing of any strong to severe 
convection to affect the forecast area during the Saturday time 
frame. 

Explicit output from medium range models continues to show this 
potential, indicated by strong instability and bulk shear to support 
organized storms, along with sufficient forcing, aided by an 
approaching cold front. Storm potential will be affected by any 
preceding MCS type activity, that would contribute to significant 
local convective overturning. 

Near normal temperatures will prevail during this period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     50  77  63  83 /  10   0   0  20 
Camden AR         50  83  67  89 /  10   0   0  10 
Harrison AR       47  77  62  81 /  10   0  10  20 
Hot Springs AR    49  81  66  86 /  10   0   0  10 
Little Rock   AR  51  80  65  87 /  10   0   0  10 
Monticello AR     52  81  66  89 /  10   0   0  10 
Mount Ida AR      48  81  66  86 /   0   0   0  10 
Mountain Home AR  47  77  61  81 /  10   0  10  20 
Newport AR        51  78  64  84 /  10   0   0  10 
Pine Bluff AR     51  80  65  88 /  10   0   0  10 
Russellville AR   49  80  65  83 /  10   0  10  10 
Searcy AR         51  79  64  85 /  10   0   0  10 
Stuttgart AR      53  79  66  87 /  20   0   0  10 
&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term...51 / Long Term...55