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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Little Rock, AR (LZK)

                            
000
FXUS64 KLZK 251123 AAA
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
623 AM CDT Sun Aug 25 2019

.DISCUSSION...

Updated to include the 12Z aviation discussion below...

&&

.AVIATION...

Some low CIGs/fog will continue for a bit this morning as a warm
front lifts north. Convection to the west/NW will move towards the
state later this morning...with some scattered to more widespread
convection possible throughout the day. Expect this convection to
move east of the area by tonight...though some fog/low clouds may
be possible again tonight.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 349 AM CDT Sun Aug 25 2019)

SHORT TERM...Today Through Monday Night

Some scattered SHRA and isolated TSRA have been observed across 
portions of central into NRN AR this early Sun morning...activity 
developing as an upper disturbance passes overhead in the weak SW 
flow aloft. This disturbance will also help lift the nearly 
stationary boundary back north this morning...along with assistance 
of another upper disturbance associated with a shortwave trough 
dropping ESE over KS this morning. This trough is also responsible 
for some organized convection ongoing early this morning over KS. 

Will see continued chances for SHRA/TSRA through this morning as 
this front lifts north...but more organized convection will be 
possible late this morning into the afternoon hrs as the activity 
over KS drops SE into the state. Looks like best chances for seeing 
any organized convective development will be with this upper 
shortwave dropping SE into the state...with a few strong to briefly 
SVR storms possible. The best chances for seeing this stronger 
activity will be across WRN/NWRN portions of the state late this 
morning into the afternoon hrs. Looks like damaging winds will be 
the primary SVR Wx threat with this activity...though cannot rule 
out some small hail. Locally heavy rainfall will remain a 
possibility with any storm through this afternoon...which may lead 
to isolated flash flooding. 

Expect POPs to decrease later tonight as the upper shortwave shifts 
east of the state by Mon morning. A cold front will be dropping SE 
across the Plains towards the state late Mon afternoon...dropping SE 
into the state Mon night. This front will bring another round of 
SHRA/TSRA to the state Mon night. Given the timing of this 
front...think the overall threat for seeing SVR Wx will be low...but 
a few strong to briefly SVR storms could again be seen.

LONG TERM...Tuesday Through Saturday

Long term begins with Arkansas sitting under slight NW flow aloft 
and a surface cold front stretched across the state. Front is 
forecast to push south of the state with post frontal rain chances 
remaining in the state through Wednesday.

By Thursday, upper level pattern will become a bit more amplified 
with a ridge of high pressure firmly planted across the western 
CONUS. At the surface, high pressure will  be centered over eastern 
Arkansas and will act to keep rain chances to the west and south of 
the state.

Still some discrepancies towards the end of the long term as the 
models try to push a cold front through the state. As a result, did 
continue with slight chance POPs in the forecast. Temperatures 
through the long term will remain well below normal.

&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&

$$

Aviation...62