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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Little Rock, AR (LZK)

                            
000
FXUS64 KLZK 180021
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
721 PM CDT Wed Oct 17 2018

.UPDATE...

Latest radar imagery continues to show light returns over the
southern part of the forecast area. Area observations are not
showing any of the precipitation hitting the ground but based on
the temp/dew point spread it would not be surprising to see a few
light showers between stations.

Drier air still expected to work its way in later tonight behind a
weak surface boundary. Forecast updated to toss in a few showers
through the evening hours over primarily the south. All other 
forecast parameters left unchanged. 

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 647 PM CDT Wed Oct 17 2018)
AVIATION...

Mid to high level moisture continues to stream across central and
southern Arkansas at this time. While a stray shower can not be
excluded, the probability is too low to include in the terminals 
at this time. The moisture will slowly decrease through the night
with widespread VFR conditions expected. Winds will generally be
light and have an easterly component.

PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 245 PM CDT Wed Oct 17 2018)
SHORT TERM...Tonight Through Friday
An area of high pressure aloft continues over the southeast U.S.
with an upper low over the Rockies. This pattern will continue
through Thursday. Thursday night into Friday, the upper low opens
into a wave and moves eastward. 

Light rain showers continue in south Arkansas this afternoon.
Expect these to continue through dark then taper off as drier air
moves in from the north behind a weak cold front. Thursday will be
dry, but rain chances return Thursday night as a short wave enters
the area from Texas. Best rain chances will be late Thursday night
into Friday. High temperatures Thursday and Friday will be in the
50s and 60s. Lows tonight will be in the mid 40s to mid 50s. 

LONG TERM...Friday Night Through Wednesday
Rainy conditions will begin the long term portion of the forecast as 
an upper level low and associated deep troughing move southeast from 
Canada into the Great Lakes region. As the strong vort max pushes 
eastward, it will help drag a surface cold front through the region, 
bringing Arkansas widespread chances for rain and a reinforcing shot 
of cold air.

Conditions will dry out behind the cold front, as thin ridging over 
the Midwest builds eastward. This will keep northwesterly flow 
across Arkansas and maintain the cooler and drier weather.

Despite model guidance discrepancies regarding the placement of 
upper level disturbances, it appears that late in the period we 
could see another cold front approach the state. Therefore, have 
blended model solutions and incorporated slight chances for rain 
across the Natural State Tuesday Night through Wednesday. 

Temperatures will start off in the upper 40s and lower 50s for lows 
Saturday morning, with highs in the mid to upper 60s (and maybe a 
touch of 70 across the far south) Saturday afternoon. However, the 
aforementioned cold front will drop lows on Sunday and Monday into 
the upper 30s and 40s, and highs into the upper 50s and lower 60s. 
We could see a gradual warm up through the week, but we should remain 
a few degrees below normal.

&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&

$$


Aviation...GOUDSWARD