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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Little Rock, AR (LZK)

FXUS64 KLZK 152350

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
650 PM CDT Wed Aug 15 2018


Most locations will see VFR conditions over the next 24 hours. A
few exceptions include northern Arkansas during the overnight
hours tonight. KHRO and KBPK will continue bouncing between 
VFR/MVFR over the next few hours with MVFR/IFR conditions expected
later during the overnight hours. Elsewhere VFR conditions will
continue with breezy SW winds expected during the day on Thursday.
Did include VCTS across central and southern terminals after 21z
on Thursday as a storm system is forecast to move in from the west
towards the end of the TAF period.


.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 245 PM CDT Wed Aug 15 2018)
SHORT TERM...Tonight Through Friday
Surface and satellite data continue to show several mesoscale
convective vortices north and west of Little Rock with attendant
outflow, and showers/scattered storms from western into central
Arkansas. As another in a series of upper level systems moves
across the region tonight, additional showers/storms will develop,
primarily over central and northern Arkansas. 

Earlier, we had a flood watch out for the western portions of our
forecast area. Decided to drop this, as heavier rainfall seemed to
stay over northwest Arkansas, and the focus shifts more into
central/north central Arkansas tonight (where rainfall hasn't been
as abundant). Still, though, with relatively high precipitable
water and the tendency of storms to form and move over the same
areas, there still could be some heavy rainfall and localized
flooding issues. 

The next round will be tomorrow and tomorrow night, as another
wave in the series moves through and interacts with any mesoscale
boundaries left over. Thursday night and Friday will see better
rain chances, as a more potent trough drops down into the mid-
Mississippi Valley, and gives a stalled frontal boundary the push
it needs to move into the region. 

LONG TERM...Friday Night Through Wednesday
The upper level pattern will continue to support several shortwaves 
moving through the area during the extended term, with a flat ridge 
remaining over the southwestern US. The end result will see Arkansas 
remaining under a predominantly nwly flow during the time frame, 
with occasional shortwaves moving through the pattern.

At the surface things will be a bit more interesting. A quasi-
stationary front will drop down from the north and will likely push 
into the state somewhat thru the weekend, before retreating back to 
the north. This should serve as a focal point for any convection, 
and could introduce some slower moving storms and/or training cells 
in the vicinity of the boundary...enhancing the risk for heavy 

By the late Monday into Tuesday time frame, a stronger and drier 
cold front will make it's way into the state from the 
west/northwest, and should usher in a break in the precipitation. At 
the moment it looks like Tuesday and Wednesday will feature rather 
pleasant weather (for August), with no POPs, temperatures several 
degrees below normal, and drier dewpoints.

No significant fire weather issues are expected through the next
seven days. Minimum humidity will remain high, and winds are
expected to remain below critical thresholds. Rain chances will
continue into mid-week next week. 


.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.