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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Little Rock, AR (LZK)

                            
000
FXUS64 KLZK 191951
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
251 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2019

.Short Term...Tonight thru Friday... 
Short term models are continuing to indicate convective initiation 
later this evening across NE TX/SE OK, with convection moving into 
AR around 00Z or shortly thereafter. NAM and RAP forecast soundings 
across southwest AR show CAPE values in excess of 4000 j/kg. 
Convection should spread and expand this evening across much of 
southern AR. With the upper trof, extensive instability, and an 
approaching surface boundary - storms should become quite strong to 
possibly severe, especially during the evening hours. Damaging winds 
are probably the most likely threat, although in the evening hours I 
would also suspect that large hail may also occur. 

After this system clears out, an upper ridge is going to start 
building across the area. By Friday, temperatures across the area 
should reach the lower 90's across the north, with mid 90's 
elsewhere. With dewpoint values anticipated to be in the mid 70's, 
this will bring heat index values close to heat advisory 
criteria...which is 105 degrees.

&&

.Long Term...Saturday thru Wednesday...
Not many changes to the going forecast. The period begins with a 
well established H250/H500 ridge planted across the central CONUS. 
On Saturday, the upper ridge will shift eastward a bit allowing for 
southwesterly flow to become re-established in the mid/low levels 
across the Southern Plains. At the surface, southwesterly winds will 
have already returned as low pressure develops over the Rockies. 

On Sunday, an upper level short wave will move over the Rockies 
further amplifying the flow between the tough and ridge over the 
Great Lakes region. This short wave trough will pivot around a much 
larger low over Canada. As this happens, an associated surface cold 
front will approach the state from the north and west. Low level 
southwesterly winds will increase in response to tightening pressure 
gradient between the aforementioned surface low over the Plains and 
surface high pressure over FL. Warm and moist air will continue to 
advect into the region destabilizing the atmosphere heading into 
Monday. High temperatures over the weekend will top out in the upper 
80s to mid 90s. Dew point temperatures will be in the upper 60s to 
lower 70s resulting in heat indices between 100 and 105 on Saturday 
and Sunday.

Monday, showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop along and 
ahead of the front where the best lift and instability will be 
found. Some strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible during 
the afternoon and evening time frame. Temperatures will reflect 
abundant cloud cover with highs only in the lower 80s to around 90 
degrees. The front will not stay long because it will begin to lift 
northward as a warm front. 

By Tuesday, the upper pattern becomes more zonal as the trough 
slides north and east. Upper level ridging will one again build into 
the region to end the period. A stalled surface boundary will become 
the primary focus for afternoon showers and thunderstorms each 
afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     69  90  74  94 /  40  10  10  20 
Camden AR         70  92  76  95 /  70  20  10  10 
Harrison AR       64  87  71  91 /  20   0  20  10 
Hot Springs AR    69  91  75  93 /  80  10  10  10 
Little Rock   AR  71  92  76  95 /  70  10  10  20 
Monticello AR     70  91  76  94 /  70  40  10  10 
Mount Ida AR      68  90  75  91 /  80  10  10  10 
Mountain Home AR  66  88  72  93 /  20   0  20  20 
Newport AR        70  90  73  93 /  60  10  10  20 
Pine Bluff AR     70  91  76  94 /  70  40  10  10 
Russellville AR   68  91  74  93 /  40   0  20  10 
Searcy AR         69  91  73  94 /  70  10  10  20 
Stuttgart AR      72  91  75  95 /  80  10  10  20 
&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term...53 / Long Term...230