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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Little Rock, AR (LZK)

                            
463 
FXUS64 KLZK 280715
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
215 AM CDT Mon May 28 2018

.SHORT TERM...Today Through Tuesday Night

Another hot and humid day will be seen across the area again this 
Memorial Day...with just some isolated afternoon convection 
possible. While best chances for SHRA/TSRA will remain across the 
SERN third of AR...some small chances will remain further west also. 
Locally heavy rainfall will be the primary threat...resulting in an 
isolated flash flood threat. If storms do get strong 
enough...damaging downburst winds will also be possible. Chances for 
convection will decrease overnight with the loss of daytime 
heating...but keep some slight chance POPs going across the east as 
the remnants of Alberto lift further inland to the east of AR.

The remnants of Alberto will have moved north over NRN AL and into 
central TN by Tue afternoon...with most impacts remaining east of 
AR. However...there may be enough upper level energy to generate 
some isolated to scattered convection across the ERN half of the CWA 
Tue afternoon. Widespread SVR WX potential looks low during this 
period...but some locally heavy rainfall may be seen with any 
convection. This may lead to an enhanced flash flood threat...though 
the threat will remain isolated given the potential coverage.

Given this increased precip potential...temps will be a bit cooler 
in this region of the state on Tue...with highs in the 80s...while 
areas further west will be in the 90s for highs. By Tue night...the 
remnants of Alberto will have exited further away from the 
state...with POPs decreasing. 

&&

.LONG TERM...Wednesday Through Sunday

The biggest concern in the long term periods will be afternoon heat 
index values. 

Periphery of a strong upper ridge centered well southwest of 
Arkansas will build in to the state. At the same time, a frontal 
boundary from the plains will approach northern Arkansas, but will 
hit the ridge, stall and move back to the north a bit. By the 
weekend, the ridge may contract or shift enough to the west to allow 
the front to actually move down into Arkansas. This would allow for 
increased rain chances and (slightly) cooler temperatures. 

Otherwise, our only rain chances would be from upper level systems 
moving around the periphery of the ridge, and would be mainly 
limited to the northeast half of Arkansas. 

Temperatures will remain well above average. Portions of southern 
Arkansas may flirt with the century mark on Saturday. Heat index 
values will range from 100 to near 105 degrees in the central and 
southern portions of Arkansas Wednesday through Saturday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     90  68  86  67 /  20  10  40  20 
Camden AR         93  70  93  71 /  20  10  10   0 
Harrison AR       88  66  86  66 /  20  10  20  10 
Hot Springs AR    91  70  92  71 /  20  10  20  10 
Little Rock   AR  91  71  90  71 /  20  10  20  10 
Monticello AR     90  70  90  72 /  30  20  20  10 
Mount Ida AR      91  68  91  69 /  20  10  10  10 
Mountain Home AR  89  66  87  65 /  20  10  30  10 
Newport AR        89  69  86  69 /  30  20  40  20 
Pine Bluff AR     90  70  90  71 /  30  10  20  10 
Russellville AR   91  70  91  70 /  20  10  20  10 
Searcy AR         90  69  88  68 /  20  10  30  10 
Stuttgart AR      90  71  89  72 /  30  10  30  10 
&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term...62 / Long Term...57