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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Little Rock, AR (LZK)

FXUS64 KLZK 212344 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...Update
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
545 PM CST Wed Feb 21 2018

Widespread MVFR conditions with patchy IFR conditions will be seen 
in the next 24 hours. The areas of rain, heavy at times, and showers 
will be seen over mainly central and southern Taf sites. A few 
thunderstorms may also be seen in central to southern AR. Fog will 
also be possible. Tonight, the area of rain will slowly move east 
and gradually decrease in intensity. Over northern Taf sites, patchy 
freezing light rain or drizzle will also be possible due to around 
freezing temperatures. Only very limited VFR ceilings will be seen 
in the next 12 to 18 hours. Later on Thursday, more VFR ceilings 
will be seen, with a decreasing trend of precipitation. Winds will 
mostly be north to northeast at 5 to 15 mph with some gusts to 
around 20 mph. A low level jet from the northeast will create patchy 
low level wind shear at central and southern Taf sites. (59)


.Prev Discussion.../ Issued 325 PM CST Wed Feb 21 2018/
.Near Term...Late This Afternoon and Tonight

Cold fnt was to the S of the FA this aftn, situated over Nrn LA. 
Copious amounts of moisture/lift cont to advect acrs the region, 
resulting in widespread rain over much the FA. Temps held fairly 
steady with 30s over N AR, with 40s/lower 50s elsewhere.

Main concern thru tngt wl be the contd rain chances, and threat of 
flooding. Radar data cont to suggest mainly light to moderate rain 
wl cont ovr much of the area tngt. Conds have turned more to an 
areal flood threat, although flash flooding potential still exists. 
Thus, have kept flood watch in place for primarily the SE half of 
the area into Thu mrng.

With sfc temps hovering close to freezing, cannot rule out some 
light freezing rain this evening over part of N-Central AR. Still 
not expecting any sig ice accumulation, so have opted not to issue 
any headlines. Wl cont to monitor trends this evening though.

.Short Term...Thursday Through Saturday

A nearly stationary boundary located just to the south and southeast 
of the forecast area is expected to lift slowly to the north during 
this period. The focus for the heaviest rainfall is expected to also 
shift northward during this period. 

Another round for a focused excessive rainfall threat appears for 
late Thursday into Friday evening, as another wave of southwesterly 
flow energy approaches the mid south.

.Long Term...Saturday Night Through Wednesday

Southwest flow will continue over Arkansas Saturday night as an 
upper low moves through the Plains. The southwest flow aloft will 
continue over Arkansas Sunday, with surface high pressure in place, 
but drier air will enter the area and continue into Monday. Moisture 
will return Tuesday night into Wednesday and rain chances will 
increase. Temperatures will remain near normal through the period. 

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Flood Watch through late tonight FOR Clark-Cleburne-Dallas-Faulkner-
Garland-Grant-Hot Spring-Independence-Jackson-Lonoke-Montgomery-

Flood Watch through Thursday morning FOR Arkansas-Bradley-Calhoun-

Near Term...44 / Short Term...55 / Long Term...51