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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Baltimore/Washington (LWX)

                            
000
FXUS61 KLWX 260132
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
932 PM EDT Tue Jun 25 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build from the Tennessee Valley toward the 
region through the end of the week. A cold front may approach 
from Pennsylvania this weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/... Most locations 
have reached the 70s as temperatures continue to drop this 
evening. A ridge of high pressure will keep us dry and quiet the
rest of the night with dewpoint temperatures lowering into the 
upper 50s to lower 60s. 

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A large high pressure ridge will provide quiet and seasonably
warm conditions Wednesday. A westerly flow Wednesday will keep 
dewpoints from rising. Heat indices will be close to actual
temperatures during the day. Any chance of showers or
thunderstorms would be mainly along the Maryland border.

Wednesday night will be quiet. Any showers or thunderstorms
along the Maryland border early will dissipate with loss of
daytime heating and sunset.

By Thursday, flow backs slightly to the southwest, so the 
humidity may rise slightly by then.

Subsidence should mostly inhibit convection Thursday too.
The forecast will remain dry.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Mid-upper level ridge will be at its maximum amplitude over our CWA 
Thu and Fri with continued hot and dry conditions. Hottest 
temperatures are expected Fri and possibly into Sat too. Digging 
upper level closed low from James Bay into northern New England 
Sunday will help push a weak cold front through the area Sunday and 
bring a slight reprieve to the hot weather (highs around 90 as 
opposed to mid 90s) along with a chance of showers and thunderstorms 
mainly to northern areas Sat afternoon and Sunday. Saturday could 
turn out to be the hottest day just ahead of the frontal passage and 
also when humidity is expected to be highest. It could be close to 
heat advisory criteria in some areas Sat especially in the south. 
Ridge tries to build from the west toward the middle of next week 
with temperatures climbing back well into the 90s.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR conditions will prevail through the valid TAF period.
Dewpoints will be low enough to preclude significant fog
development. 

Hot temperatures will be the main concern for the rest of the
week. Risk of t-storms Sat and Sun.

&&

.MARINE...
Light winds then gradually back southwest by Thursday. Local 
onshore Bay breeze effects expected each afternoon. Winds 
anticipated to remain below Small Craft Advisory thresholds 
through the end of the week. Risk of thunderstorms Sat and Sun 
with a frontal passage.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HTS
NEAR TERM...HTS/KLW
SHORT TERM...HTS
LONG TERM...LFR
AVIATION...LFR/KLW
MARINE...LFR/KLW