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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Louisville, KY (LMK)

                            
000
FXUS63 KLMK 221931
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
331 PM EDT Mon Apr 22 2019

.Short Term...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 230 PM EDT Mon Apr 22 2019

Should be quiet weather for tonight, well ahead of the next cold 
front approaching from the Midwest. A trough, now over west TX, will 
bring a couple of vortmaxes into the area Tuesday, helping to 
enhance storm chances out ahead of that front Tuesday afternoon, 
especially along the Ohio River. Forecast soundings show some 
available instability for storms to fire up in the afternoon. Shear 
is not too impressive, so will just be watching for any 35-45 mph 
wind gusts to mix down to the surface in the stronger cells that 
develop. High temperatures will be limited some by how earlier 
initiation occurs along the front, but most locations should see 
readings fairly similar to today...well above normal...after morning 
lows 5-10 degrees warmer than this mornings.

&&

.Long Term...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 325 PM EDT Mon Apr 22 2019

Tuesday evening the cold front slowly moving southeast through 
central Kentucky weakens as it provides a band of 30 to 40 percent 
PoPs through Kentucky. Rain chances will taper off to the north 
and south of this main axis that runs west to east. During the 
overnight hours, thunderstorms become unlikely and showers will be
isolated. 

Wednesday, the stalled front, still over Kentucky, weakens leaving 
most of the CWA with patchy areas of 20 percent PoPs. Around mid-
day, a weak shortwave riding in the mean flow helps amplify 
frontogenesis over Kentucky. This will help increase rain chances as 
the the low pressure system at the end of the cold front advances 
toward the Ohio Valley. The rain is expected to be more widespread 
than that of Tuesday evening. Chances will peak Thursday afternoon 
into evening. Better coverage will be along the border of Kentucky 
and Tennessee. 

Friday morning, a cold front located with a shortwave will have any 
remaining rain chances pushed into eastern Kentucky, east of the 
Bluegrass. Skies will clear by afternoon and remain until Saturday 
night when another weak cold front begins to fall apart as it 
approaches the Ohio Valley from the northwest. This will bring 
clouds to the area and maybe some light rain, but it's still too 
early for the models to be in strong agreement.

&&

.Aviation...(18Z TAF Issuance)
Updated at 110 PM EDT Mon Apr 22 2019

Winds will continue out of the south the rest of the afternoon. We 
should see a switch to southwesterly later tonight as a cold front 
approaches the region. This front will bring in a chance for storms 
Tuesday afternoon along with brief periods of MVFR ceilings 
initially at the HNB/SDF terminals.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$

Short Term...RJS
Long Term...KDW
Aviation...RJS