Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)
Issued by Louisville, KY (LMK)
809 FXUS63 KLMK 230628 AFDLMK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Louisville KY 228 AM EDT Mon Apr 23 2018 .Short Term...(Today through Tuesday) Issued at 225 AM EDT Mon Apr 23 2018 Mature storm system now centered near Memphis. Plenty of divergence aloft east and northeast of this low is causing an expansive area of light to moderate rains that will continue to overspread the rest of central Kentucky and southern Indiana the rest of this morning. By this afternoon, the low only will make it into western TN, but we should see some pockets of dryness develop in the rain shield. These places shouldn't stay dry for long though, as it won't take much heating to generate additional showers. Cannot rule out some rumbles of thunder over southern Kentucky with these pockets as well. Tonight, the upper low will try and make it into southwest Kentucky, but by daybreak Tuesday it likely will be right along the central KY/TN border. We should expect continued good rain chances, though with the best forcing farther east the amounts falling should drop some. By Tuesday afternoon, the low should be just east of us, but rain chances, and again some slight chances for thunder, will stay up through the day along with cooler than normal temperatures. && .Long Term...(Tuesday night through Sunday) Issued at 225 AM EDT Mon Apr 23 2018 The influence of the upper level low will be waning Tuesday night, with just a few showers still possible across the area. However another upper system will drop in from the Midwest Wednesday. Moisture is not too abundant with this system, so rain chances will be much lower than with today's system. One more upper trough drops in here Friday, with a cold front swinging through. This keeps up rain chances for the work week...not to mention keeping temperatures from spiking too warm on any one day. Behind the Fri/Fri night system we may actually build in a few dry days, with a warmup for the weekend. && .Aviation...(06Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 152 AM EDT Mon Apr 23 2018 Large upper level low pressure system near MEM will slowly move eastward toward the southern Ohio Valley during the TAF period. Ceilings will gradually lower through the Monday morning hours as moisture is transported north. Moderate showers have been ongoing at BWG, and MVFR vsbys are likely between 06-12z. The other TAF sites will likely remain VFR until after 12z. HNB and SDF are likely to see an extended period of MVFR ceilings after mid-morning. LLWS is a concern early this morning, particularly at BWG. 45-50 kt easterly low level jet will diminish after 09z. Expect easterly surface winds of 10-15 kts with occasional gusts during the period. A ribbon of drier air will push up into central KY this afternoon, so expect coverage to drop a bit. Scattered to numerous showers still likely. And in the vicinity of BWG, could have a rumble or two of thunder. A more convective shower or storm could produce small hail given cold temperatures aloft. && .LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...None. KY...None. && $$ Short Term...RJS Long Term...RJS Aviation...EBW