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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Louisville, KY (LMK)

FXUS63 KLMK 230628

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
228 AM EDT Mon Apr 23 2018

.Short Term...(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 225 AM EDT Mon Apr 23 2018

Mature storm system now centered near Memphis. Plenty of divergence 
aloft east and northeast of this low is causing an expansive area of 
light to moderate rains that will continue to overspread the rest of 
central Kentucky and southern Indiana the rest of this morning. By 
this afternoon, the low only will make it into western TN, but we 
should see some pockets of dryness develop in the rain shield. These 
places shouldn't stay dry for long though, as it won't take much 
heating to generate additional showers. Cannot rule out some rumbles 
of thunder over southern Kentucky with these pockets as well. 

Tonight, the upper low will try and make it into southwest Kentucky, 
but by daybreak Tuesday it likely will be right along the central 
KY/TN border. We should expect continued good rain chances, though 
with the best forcing farther east the amounts falling should drop 
some. By Tuesday afternoon, the low should be just east of us, but 
rain chances, and again some slight chances for thunder, will stay 
up through the day along with cooler than normal temperatures.


.Long Term...(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 225 AM EDT Mon Apr 23 2018

The influence of the upper level low will be waning Tuesday night, 
with just a few showers still possible across the area. However 
another upper system will drop in from the Midwest Wednesday. 
Moisture is not too abundant with this system, so rain chances will 
be much lower than with today's system. One more upper trough drops 
in here Friday, with a cold front swinging through. This keeps up 
rain chances for the work week...not to mention keeping temperatures 
from spiking too warm on any one day.

Behind the Fri/Fri night system we may actually build in a few dry 
days, with a warmup for the weekend.


.Aviation...(06Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 152 AM EDT Mon Apr 23 2018

Large upper level low pressure system near MEM will slowly move 
eastward toward the southern Ohio Valley during the TAF period. 
Ceilings will gradually lower through the Monday morning hours as 
moisture is transported north. Moderate showers have been ongoing at 
BWG, and MVFR vsbys are likely between 06-12z. The other TAF sites 
will likely remain VFR until after 12z. HNB and SDF are likely to 
see an extended period of MVFR ceilings after mid-morning. 

LLWS is a concern early this morning, particularly at BWG. 45-50 kt 
easterly low level jet will diminish after 09z. Expect easterly 
surface winds of 10-15 kts with occasional gusts during the period. 
A ribbon of drier air will push up into central KY this afternoon, 
so expect coverage to drop a bit. Scattered to numerous showers 
still likely. And in the vicinity of BWG, could have a rumble or two 
of thunder. A more convective shower or storm could produce small 
hail given cold temperatures aloft.




Short Term...RJS
Long Term...RJS