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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Louisville, KY (LMK)

FXUS63 KLMK 162010

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
310 PM EST Fri Nov 16 2018

.Short Term...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 310 PM EST Fri Nov 16 2018

The only short term weather concern is the potential for dense fog 
overnight. We're expecting a fog/low stratus event to play out 
overnight into early Sat, with the low stratus more common over 
southern IN and north-central KY. The stratus that we're currently 
seeing north of the WK/BG parkways is likely to linger overnight 
underneath a strengthening low level inversion. Model RH time 
heights (and forecast soundings) suggest a lowering of that moisture 
overnight, which could result in reduced visibility at the sfc. 
Dense fog is more likely south of the cloud shield. 

Crossover Ts will easily be reached tonight. Sfc dewpoints have 
increased into the mid 30s this afternoon, and overnight lows are 
still expected to range from the upper 20s to lower 30s. Low level 
winds will become light tonight with sfc high pressure sliding east 
over the area. On Saturday, low clouds should mostly mix out by late 
morning, though higher clouds will begin spreading in from the 
northwest during the afternoon. Stubborn clouds in the north and 
developing southerly flow should result in a healthy temp gradient 
on Saturday. Highs will likely remain in the 40s across most of 
southern Indiana, with low to mid 50s in central KY. Southern KY 
should reach the upper 50s.


.Long Term...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 245 PM EST Fri Nov 16 2018

A weakening shortwave trough will approach from the northwest on 
Sunday, moving through the Ohio Valley Sunday night and Monday. 
Light rain will accompany the system with precipitation amounts less 
than a quarter inch. A little bit of wintry mix early Monday morning 
can't be completely ruled out, but model trends have been toward a 
warmer solution as the heart of the cold air aloft moves more east 
than south, across Hudson and James Bays.

Behind the departing system, high pressure sinking from the Great 
Lakes to the mid-Atlantic will provide us with a dry, quiet weather 
week. Travelers on Wednesday should have mostly sunny skies and 
light winds in the Ohio Valley. The holiday looks really nice right 
now with lots of sunshine and highs possibly approaching 60. Of 
course, we'll still want to keep an eye on things since the 
Thanksgiving is still several days out.


.Aviation...(18Z TAF Issuance)
Updated at 1241 PM EST Fri Nov 16 2018

MVFR stratus hovering around or slightly below the fuel alternate 
threshold will continue to expand southeast over the northern TAF 
sites this afternoon, with BWG remaining VFR. Breezy WSW winds to 
begin this TAF period will diminish substantially after 21z. The low 
MVFR stratus will tend to linger overnight, becoming trapped 
underneath a strengthening low level inversion. South of the stratus 
deck, fog is likely to develop between 00-06z. Dense fog will be 
possible at BWG in particular. But a lowering stratus deck could 
also result in IFR conditions after 06z Sat at HNB/LEX/SDF. We 
should be able to mix out to VFR conditions by mid to late morning 
on Sat.




Short Term...EBW
Long Term...13