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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Louisville, KY (LMK)

FXUS63 KLMK 240448

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
1248 AM EDT Sun Mar 24 2019

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.Short Term...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 315 PM EDT Sat Mar 23 2019

High pressure over the Ohio Valley today will drift to the mid 
Atlantic Coast by tomorrow morning, As the high moves east of the 
area, southerly winds will return, with a warm front set to cross 
the region during the day tomorrow.  Clouds will start to stream in 
tonight ahead of the warm front's parent low, which will move east 
from the central plains into the mid Mississippi Valley by tomorrow 

Clouds will thicken and lower during the morning hours Sunday, with 
scattered showers making their way in from the west during the 
afternoon. Unlike many of the rains of the past several weeks, these 
showers will be light and scattered in nature, with only about a 
tenth of an inch expected in any given location.  

The clouds will help to keep temperatures up tonight, with lows 
ranging from the mid 30s in the Bluegrass region to the lower 40s 
west of I-65.  However, these same clouds will work against the warm 
air advection from the southerly winds tomorrow, but even so, most 
Kentucky locations will see highs in the 60s, while southern Indiana 
sites may miss the mark by 2 to 3 degrees.

.Long Term...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 259 PM EST Sat Mar 23 2019

Sunday Night through Tuesday Night...

Upper trough axis will shift through the region Sunday night and 
into early Monday morning.  At the surface an area of low pressure 
looks to cruise eastward across the region while dragging a surface 
cold front through the area.  Cloudy and showery conditions are 
expected as this system moves through.  Still see some instability 
here and there which could lead to a few thunderstorms late Sunday 
night through Monday afternoon.  Still thinking that a quarter to 
three quarters of an inch of QPF will be possible with this system. 
Showers look to taper off by Monday evening with high pressure 
building into the region. This should result in dry conditions for 
Tuesday and Tuesday night.

Lows Sunday Night should fall into the upper 40s to around 50. Highs 
on Monday will average in the low-mid 50s over southern IN and the 
northern half of KY.  A few upper 50s to around 60 readings will be 
possible across southern KY.  It will be cool Tuesday morning with 
lows back in the upper 20s to the lower 30s. Highs Tuesday look to 
average in the 50-55 degree range.  Lows Tuesday night look to dip 
back into the upper 20s to the lower 30s.

Wednesday through Saturday...

Sprawling high pressure will hold sway over the region on Wednesday 
with mid-level heights rising through the day.  Ridge looks to top 
out during the day on Thursday.  A compact, but stout closed low is 
likely to push through the western Plains and into the Midwest by 
mid-late week.  This feature will likely bring another winter storm 
to the northern high Plains with rain soaker to the eastern corn belt 
and into the Ohio Valley.  For our area, the best chances of rain 
look to be Friday and into Saturday as the cold front surges through 
the region. Will need to watch the system carefully for the 
development of strong to severe storms as we'll have a decent return 
moisture flow event prior to the front's arrival.

Highs will moderate through the period with readings in the upper 
50s to the lower 60s for Wednesday and then warming into the mid-
upper 60s by Thursday and Friday.  Temps look to be a bit cooler for 
Saturday with highs mainly in the upper 50s to the lower 60s. 
Overnight lows through the period look to average out in the upper 
40s to the lower 50s.


.Aviation...(06Z TAF Issuance)
Updated at 1248 AM EDT Sun Mar 24 2019

Low pressure along the Kansas/Nebraska border early this morning will 
move to central Kentucky by 12Z Monday, with its warm front reaching 
into the Blue Grass State tonight. Light rain showers will move out 
ahead of the system. The best chance for rain, possibly taking 
conditions to MVFR, will be tonight as the low approaches. Some 
thunder will be possible at HNB and SDF, but chances are too small 
for inclusion in the TAFs at this time.




Short Term...JBS
Long Term...MJ