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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Louisville, KY (LMK)

                            
796 
FXUS63 KLMK 252314
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
614 PM EST Sun Feb 25 2018

.Short Term...(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 200 PM EST Sun Feb 25 2018

Much needed period of dry weather underway across southern Indiana 
and central Kentucky. High pressure currently over southern Missouri 
will drift east toward the Ohio Valley through tonight. Visible 
satellite imagery shows high clouds streaming northeast from the 
Gulf, especially across central Kentucky. Mid afternoon readings 
were in the mid to upper 40s. 

Expect partly to mostly clear conditions tonight. While the synoptic 
setup and antecedent conditions would support fog formation across 
the area (light winds and high soil moisture) the high clouds 
overhead through most of the night should keep fog from becoming 
more than patchy. However, given just how wet the grounds are, 
patchy fog may form around river valleys, low-lying areas, etc and 
it could become locally dense. Otherwise, plan on lows in the 30s. 

Dry weather continues Monday and Monday night with high pressure 
moving through the region. A southern stream system will track 
through portions of eastern TN and eastern KY, but our area is 
expected to stay dry. Highs will be in the upper 50s to lower 60s. 
Lows Monday night are forecast to be in the 30s again.

&&

.Long Term...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 200 PM EST Sun Feb 25 2018

...More Rainfall Mid-Week...

Late Tuesday night a shortwave trough will lift from Texas toward 
the TN Valley reaching the lower Ohio Valley Wednesday. Increasing 
isentropic lift and moisture transport should break out widespread 
showers and potentially some thunderstorms across the area 
as early as Wednesday morning. 

Then another wave of showers and thunderstorms looks likely 
Wednesday night and Thursday as a low pressure deepens and races 
toward the lower Great Lakes. The better dynamics for stronger 
storms appears to be south of the area, but will have to watch 
closely for changes in timing and placement of the synoptic 
features for any severe weather potential.

Overall, forecast rainfall with this system is up to 1 inch across 
southern Indiana and north central Kentucky, and 1-2 inches across 
south-central Kentucky. Despite the 3 day dry weather leading up to 
it, this additional rainfall could aggravate, renew, worsen, or 
prolong the river flooding across the area. See the hydrology 
section for further information on how it could affect river crests.

Beyond that, a period of upper troughing and high pressure will 
bring a cooler but drier weather pattern next weekend.

&&

.Aviation...(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 614 PM EST Sun Feb 25 2018

High pressure moving up the Ohio River Valley will give the TAF 
sites quiet weather. High clouds this evening will clear out towards 
dawn. With the clearing skies, light winds, and soggy ground, that 
raises the question of fog. Right now it looks like dew points might 
be just low enough to keep fog out of the TAFs, but it will be 
something to watch.

&&

.Hydrology...
Updated at 130 PM EST Sun Feb 25 2018

Many rivers remain in flood across southern Indiana and central 
Kentucky. Moderate flooding is occurring along the Ohio River with 
some locations forecast to go into major flooding, and current 
projections show the crest to occur sometime on Monday. For a 
complete listing with forecast hydrographs, please visit our website 
at: https://water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=LMK

Areal flood warnings remain in effect through late this afternoon to 
account for the high water that continues to run over roads across 
portions of central Kentucky and southern Indiana. Backwater 
flooding of low-lying areas will continue and be extremely slow to 
recede.

A mid-week system will bring a few potential rounds of showers and 
thunderstorms to the area. There remains some uncertainity in how 
much rain will fall, but at this time, up to 1 inch is possible 
across southern Indiana and north central Kentucky, while 1 to 2 
inches are possible across south-central Kentucky. 

It is worth noting that this rainfall forecast is not accounted yet 
in the river forecast models as its too far out in time. Guidance 
from the Ohio River Forecast Center (OHRFC) suggests that this 
rainfall could prolong the crests a few days or delay the fall in 
river levels.

&&

.Climate...
Issued at 145 PM EST Sun Feb 25 2018

Louisville International Airport (SDF) broke its monthly 
precipitation record for February. Through this afternoon, 10.47" of 
rain has fallen this month. This exceeds the previous monthly record 
of 9.84" from 1884. SDF also has the potential to break into the top 
10 all-time wettest months on record. The 10th wettest month on 
record is 11.38" in January 1950.

Other central Kentucky climate sites totals and respective February 
records.

        Through 12 AM 2/25      Feb Monthly Record
LEX     9.12"                   10.12" (1989)
BWG     8.16"                   11.27" (1989)
FFT     8.69"                   9.97"  (1909)

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$

Short Term...ZT
Long Term...ZT
Aviation...13
Hydrology...ZT
Climate...ZT