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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Lake Charles, LA (LCH)

                            
000
FXUS64 KLCH 202038
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
338 PM CDT Fri Sep 20 2019

.DISCUSSION...
Wx map shows large 1026mb sfc high over the Carolinas, ridging
southwest over most of the Gulf of Mexico providing east-southeast
to southeast flow over the region. Trailing moisture associated 
with the remnants of Imelda still producing scattered showers
with the occasional thunderstorm. With rainfall still occurring
over SE TX, Flash Flood Warning for additional rainfall continues. 

For the forecast, 40-50% pops for the remainder of the afternoon 
over SE TX/SW LA, diminishing for 20% this evening. The Flash 
Flood Watch will continue for all of Southeast Texas through 7 PM.
Wording of 0.5-1" with isolated higher amounts possible with 
these slow moving showers.

The forecast this weekend into the middle of next week shows high
pressure building across the upper levels, but not expected to 
completely suppress afternoon shower and thunderstorm 
development. Thus, 20-40% for this across the region per blended 
guidance seems reasonable. Above average temperatures will 
continue, with lows in the lower 70s, and highs mainly in the 
lower 90s.

DML

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure will build into the coastal waters from the east 
over the weekend. Southeast winds expected to increase to 15-20 
kts this evening and overnight, and remain near 15-20 kts for most
of the day Saturday. For this, extended the Small Craft Exercise 
Caution for the 0-60nm zones through 1 AM Sunday.

DML

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  67  89  67  90 /  20  20  10  30 
LCH  74  87  73  89 /  20  30  10  30 
LFT  71  89  71  90 /  20  30  10  30 
BPT  75  87  75  87 /  20  20  10  30 

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...Flash Flood Watch until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ180-201-215-
     216-259>262.

GM...Small Craft Exercise Caution through late Saturday night for 
     GMZ470-472-475.

     Small Craft Exercise Caution from 7 PM CDT this evening through 
     late Saturday night for GMZ450-452-455.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...04