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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Lake Charles, LA (LCH)

FXUS64 KLCH 242052

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
352 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2019

The earlier MCS from last night and this morning has left a rather
cold pool and worked over environment that has kept temperatures
and convection in check this afternoon. The air mass will recover
later tonight and on Tuesday, allowing for an upper level
disturbance to initiate scattered showers and thunderstorms. A few
storms may be strong with brief heavy down pours, frequent cloud 
to ground lightning, and locally gusty winds. Drier air will then 
move in during the Wednesday-Thursday period limiting rain 
chances and keep humidity in check. Deeper Gulf moisture and a 
weakness aloft will return by the weekend, with increased rain 



All is rather quiet now as earlier mesoscale thunderstorm complex
has worked over the air mass decreasing instability. Also, the
resultant cold pool and cloud cover has kept the heat and humidity
in check for today. 

Water vapor imagery shows an upper level low over the upper
midwest with a trough trailing down into deep south Texas. An
upper level disturbance is expected to rotate around the trough
and across the region on Tuesday. Air mass is expected to recover
by then with growing instability and moisture. Precipitable water
values by tomorrow afternoon are progged to be between 1.8 and 1.9
inches which is above the climo mean of 1.75 inches and between
the 75th and 90th percentile. Guidance also pinging at decent
CAPEs and moderate instability. Therefore, a few strong storms
with locally gusty winds, frequent lightning, and brief heavy 
down pours can be ruled out. SPC has the forecast area outlined in
a marginal risk for severe weather, and WPC has a majority of the
forecast area outlined in a marginal risk for excessive rainfall.

For mid week, a 85H-70H ridge axis ahead of a easterly wave will
move across the forecast area during the Wednesday through
Thursday period. Therefore, despite a relative weakness aloft,
drier air above the surface up through about 10k feet will help
keep convection, along with humidity in check during those two

Deeper Gulf moisture will move back into the forecast area on the
backside of the ridge by the end of the week into the weekend, and
this will coincide with an upper level wave developing over the
region in between a break in the sub-tropical ridge. Therefore,
rain chances will be on the increase for the weekend, mainly
diurnally driven, although the atmosphere would support development
about anytime.



MCS from earlier today has weakened and this has ended any
convective wind gusts over the coastal waters for the remainder of
the afternoon into tonight. An upper level disturbance will move
across the region on Tuesday helping to kick off some scattered
showers or thunderstorms. 

A surface ridge will become centered over the north central Gulf
of Mexico over the next few days. This will create a weak pressure
gradient over the coastal waters. Therefore, mainly light winds
and low seas are expected through mid week. 

Showers and thunderstorms are expected to increase again over the
weekend as an upper level disturbance and deeper moisture move
back into the region. 



AEX  72  90  71  91 /  20  50  30  20 
LCH  76  90  76  91 /  20  40  10  10 
LFT  76  94  75  93 /  10  30  10  20 
BPT  77  89  76  91 /  20  40  20  10