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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Key West, FL (KEY)

FXUS62 KKEY 221542

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
1042 AM EST Tue Jan 22 2019

Deep mean layer ridging extends north from the Western Caribbean
into the eastern United States. A 1041 mb surface high centered
over the Delmarva supports strong east to southeast breezes across
the coastal waters of the Florida Keys. Locations in the cooler
waters of Florida Bay and Bayside of the Middle Keys average 18 
knots, while locations south of the island chain are near 25
knots. Skies are mostly cloudy as moist BL winds produce copious
stratocumulus fields, which are limited in vertical development 
by the massive 7 degC inversion based around 5 kft. Temperatures
have recovered into the lower 70s with dewpoints near 60. The KBYX
radar is nearly echo free aside from a few sprinkles within the
most vigorous stratocumulus cells. The forecast calls for a windy,
warmer afternoon across the Keys with nearly nil chances for
accumulating rains. No updates planned or needed. 


Small Craft Advisory in effect for all coastal waters of the
Florida Keys except Florida Bay and Bayside of the Middle Keys,
where winds are slightly decoupled and averaging below 20 knots.
Locations along the Reef are near 25 knots, gusting to 30 knots,
and these magnitudes likely will persist through tonight. From
synopsis, a sprawling continental high pressure cell over the 
eastern United States will migrate eastward this afternoon through
Wednesday. Strong easterly breezes will steadily veer to the 
southeast as the high presses east of Bermuda. The next cold front
will slide southeast across the Gulf of Mexico Wednesday night, 
likely reaching the Florida Keys by late Thursday. Winds will box 
quickly around the compass Wednesday night through Thursday night,
with moderate to fresh northeast breezes likely Friday through 


VFR and gusty east to southeast breezes will prevail at the EYW
and MTH terminals through the afternoon. Supra-MVFR CIGS based at
040-050 will persist. 


GM...Small Craft Advisory for GMZ033>035-042>044-052>055-072>075.



Data Collection......BT

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