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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Key West, FL (KEY)

FXUS62 KKEY 141311

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
911 AM EDT Sat Jul 14 2018

KBYX detects widely separated showers and isolated thunderstorms
over nearshore and offshore waters adjacent to the Florida Keys.
Skies over the island chain are variably cloudy. Winds over land 
are northeast to east at 5 to 10 mph. C-MAN winds, on average, are
northeast near 10 knots. Temperatures are in the mid 80s.

.SHORT TERM (This afternoon)...
In the low to mid levels of the atmosphere, a weak pressure
pattern will prevail this afternoon. In the upper levels of the
atmosphere, a ridge of high pressure will be located over the
eastern Gulf of Mexico today. The 12z KKEY sounding is moderately
unstable and quite moist, with a precipitable water value just
above two inches. Atmospheric moisture will remain constant today.
Rain chances should increase this afternoon as island cumulus
cloud lines build near or directly over the Florida Keys. 


Gentle northeast breezes will prevail on all Keys coastal waters 
this afternoon. There is a moderate risk for waterspout formation 
on nearshore waters surrounding the island chain today. No 
advisories or cautionary headlines expected today through at least
Wednesday night. 


VFR conditions will prevail at both EYW and MTH terminals. Isolated 
showers are passing just south of the terminals and these could 
build and sporadically affect both terminals throughout the day. 
Confidence is increasing for thunderstorms to possibly impact
either terminal this afternoon. After 14/16Z, VCTS, with brief 
MFVR conditions will be possible at either or both terminals as 
light east winds will increase to 5 to 10 knots this morning and 
become east to southeast this afternoon and evening.


On this date in Florida Keys weather history, in 1953, 1.97 inches
of rain fell at Key West International Airport. This set the daily
record for maximum rainfall measured in Key West on July 14th, a
record which still stands 65 years later. Rainfall records at Key
West date back to 1871.





Data Collection......BT

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