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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Key West, FL (KEY)

                            
000
FXUS62 KKEY 140221
AFDKEY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
1021 PM EDT Sat Oct 13 2018

.DISCUSSION...
A few areas of subtle cloud lines and clusters in the lower Keys,
western Hawk Channel and just east of the eastern Hawk
channel/upper Keys area could be mesoscale boundaries that support
isolated shower and thunderstorm development overnight into early
Sunday morning as low level, positive theta-e advection from the 
east occurs. These cloud areas are also likely coincident with 
some weak convergence from the old, weak frontal boundary that is 
dissipating in the vicinity of the Keys. No changes to the zone
forecast will be made.

&&

.MARINE...
Wind and wave forecast remains on track from previous forecast, so
no changes were necessary. Transition from short-term influence of
dissipating weak frontal boundary over the area to easterly winds
from building high pressure to the north should continue overnight
into Sunday morning with most of the wind speeds remaining near 10
knots or less, although some gusts up to 15 knots at times could
occur over the Florida straits. Confidence is not particularly
high in where and if much shower and thunderstorm activity will
develop overnight, however there is enough evidence with the 
current weak leftover mesoscale boundaries and a possibly weak 
outflow surge northward from Cuba and the southwest Florida 
Straits to support isolated to possibly scattered showers and a 
few thunderstorms to develop across the Florida Straits after 
midnight through the early morning hours on Sunday, so have bumped
up the convective coverage in the late evening coastal waters
forecast. Elsewhere, isolated showers and thunderstorms will be
possible at least in the Hawk Channel and possibly some of the 
Bayside/Gulfside waters. 

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z Terminal Forecast Discussion: VFR conditions will prevail at both 
terminals. VCSH for both the island terminals through the morning, 
but are unlikely to directly affect either airport. Light east winds 
will about 6-8 knots during the day, becoming southeast in the 
afternoon and evening. 

&&

.CLIMATE...On this date in 1960, the daily record high 
temperature of 91F was recorded in Key West. 

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

Public/Marine/Fire...TD
Aviation....SC
Climate...WLC
Data Collection......SD

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