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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Key West, FL (KEY)

                            
000
FXUS62 KKEY 111429
AFDKEY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
929 AM EST Sun Nov 11 2018

.DISCUSSION...In the middle and upper levels( 700-200 mb), latest
available GOES-R satellite imagery overlaid with model streamline
analysis as of 900 am depict a sharpening positively tilted full 
latitudinal trough situated across the Western CONUS, with its
axis from NE Montana to Arizona. Downstream of that, low amplitude
ridging encompasses much of the Central and Eastern CONUS, 
including the Gulf of Mexico, the Florida Peninsula, and the 
Florida Keys. A 75-100 knot at 250 mb jet maxima is in between 
these two features and is evident from the Central Plains to the 
Northeast.

At the surface and in the lower to mid levels(Surface to 700 mb),
latest available GOES-R satellite imagery overlaid with marine 
and land surface observations and surface analysis, as of 900 am,
detail the center of 103 mb plus cold high pressure situated over
West Virginia. Well to the south, an attendant cold front has 
reached south Florida from low pressure developing over the lower 
St Lawrence Valley. As a result, the 12Z morning sounding 
illustrated gentle northeast to east winds from off the surface up
to about 750 mb, backing to north up to 500 mb. Most moisture was
confined to below 800 mb, with columnar PWAT at 1.51 inches. 

.CURRENTLY...As of 900 am, radar and visible satellite imagery
detect partly cloudy skies over the Keys Island Chain and Bay and
Nearshore Gulf waters upstream of South Florida, with mostly sunny
skies elsewhere. Miami and Key West Radar detects isolated showers
impacting portions of the Upper Florida Keys and immediate
surrounding waters. Temperatures across the islands are near 80
but dewpoints on this Armistice/Veterans Day remain muggy, in the
mid 70s. C-man stations along the Florida Reef and Smith Shoal
Light are generally northeast between 10 and 15 knots. 

.SHORT TERM...Rest of the day, the frontal boundary will remain
situated across South Florida through the afternoon. Local winds 
will come down a few more knots but weak convergence will continue
to allow for development of isolated showers, especially near the
Upper Keys. Temperatures are on track to reach the mid-80s. No
changes to the forecast on this cycle.

&&

.MARINE...Rest of today and this evening. Northeast to east winds
will mix down a bit this morning to near 15 knots by late morning.
These winds will lull a bit this afternoon before another surge
by late this evening. SCEC headlines will be likely across at
least Hawk Channel, the Nearshore and Offshore Gulf waters, and
across the Florida Straits, and possibly across the rest of the
waters.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR conditions will prevail at the island terminals.
Patches of stratocu based between 1500 and 2000 may result in 
brief spells of MVFR ceilings. Surface winds will be out of the 
northeast to east northeast near 10 knots. Winds are expected to 
edge upwards this evening and tonight.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

Public/Marine/Fire...Futterman
Aviation/Nowcasts....11
Upper Air/Data Collection......BT

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