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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Key West, FL (KEY)

                            
392 
FXUS62 KKEY 161402
AFDKEY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
1002 AM EDT Thu Aug 16 2018

.DISCUSSION...
After an episode of isolated showers passed through the Lower Keys
early this morning, the signs of gradual drying are noted as 
deep mid-level ridging extends through central Florida. Heights
were 2 Dm higher than observed Wednesday morning at Key West,
although this morning's sounding sampled the environment conducive
for this morning's shower activity. East to southeast winds have 
been steady near 15 knots outside of showers. GOES16 precipitable
water estimates have falled to near 1.4 inches over the far upper
Keys, but a residual stream of low level moisture remains along
a confluence zone running north of Cuba. Most of the shallow
convective showers have remained in this zone.

A late morning update is being contemplated to reduce rain chances
slightly to 10 percent and to improve sky condition to mostly
sunny. However, this is dependent on the convergence zone shifting
west toward the western Straits of Florida as noted in short-
range guidance.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure ridging is expected to oscillate from central to
south Florida right on through early next week. Moderate east to 
southeast winds are expected today, then oscillating gentle to 
moderate through Friday night. Lighter winds are expected this 
weekend. 

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR through 17/12Z. Should be able to remove VCSH with next update 
as increasingly dry air lessens coverage of showers in steady 10-15 
knot east-southeast flow. 

&&

.CLIMATE...
In 1922, the daily record cold high temperature of 82 degrees was
recorded in Key West. Temperature records date back to 1872.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

Public/Marine/Fire...JR
Aviation/Nowcasts....Ulrich
Data Collection......BT

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