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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Key West, FL (KEY)

FXUS62 KKEY 160813

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
413 AM EDT Thu Aug 16 2018

Along the Florida Keys, skies are mainly partly cloudy with east
winds of 10 to 15 mph and temperatures in the lower 80s.
Meanwhile, local radars are detecting widely scattered showers on
the Straits of Florida. Surface wise, a Western Atlantic ridge is
draped across the southern half of the Florida peninsula, 
resulting in east winds of 10 to 15 knots except near 15 knots on 
the coastal waters south of the island chain.


.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday night)
Little change in the overall synoptic pattern with a deep layered
ridge draped across the northern half of the Florida peninsula,
before dropping southward early this weekend. With no well
pronounced undulations evident and considerable dry air above 850
mb, only isolated 20 percent pops will be carried through Friday 
night. Thereafter, additional moisture within a easterly flow
combined with a somewhat favorable wind profile to enhance
mesoscale forcing, low chance pops will be retained beginning on


.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Wednesday)
The aforementioned deep tropospheric ridge will extend across the
central part of the Sunshine State resulting in a deep easterly 
flow. Despite no robust low level perturbations foreseen, our area
will be on the southern periphery of the anticyclone. With this
position, episodic pockets of higher moisture along with
occasional minor low level wind surges will prompt pops to be
stream lined at low chance which is average for this time of year. 
Highs temperatures will average in the lower 90s with overnight
lows generally in the lower 80s. 


Gentle to moderate winds will predominate on Keys coastal waters
today through Friday night, before winds slacken into the light to
gentle range this weekend.


VFR conditions are expected at EYW & MTH through 17/06z. Passing 
showers 09z and beyond could potentially bring brief sub-VFR 
conditions to either terminal. Expect east-southeasterly flow of 5-
10 knots to increase to 10-15 knots sustained after 12z. 


In 1922, the daily record cold high temperature of 82 degrees was
recorded in Key West. Temperature records date back to 1872. 


Key West  91  83  91  83 / 20 20 20 20 
Marathon  92  83  92  83 / 20 20 20 20 





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