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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Key West, FL (KEY)

FXUS62 KKEY 181539

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
1039 AM EST Sun Feb 18 2018

A weak, low-level trough at the nose of a deepening/intensifying
easterly current is migrating westward through the Florida Keys
this morning. Key West Doppler radar trends have shown ready
shower development, but vertical growth has been stunted thanks to
the persistence of a strong subsidence inversion based near 6000
feet elevation. As a consequence, rain showers have been mostly
light in intensity, with any accumulations only a few hundredths
of an inch. Currently, air temperatures in most Keys island
communities are being held in the mid 70s by cloud cover, while
dewpoint temperatures are in the upper 60s. East breezes have
been freshening from east to west. 

Clearing should occur gradually from east to west over the service
area, while east winds increase to a steady 15 mph over land
zones, higher to the south across Hawk Channel and the Straits of
Florida. Minor adjustments have been made to the digital forecast
database and derived products.

Small Craft Should Exercise Caution in the Straits of Florida for
increasing winds and seas this afternoon. A Small Craft Advisory
likely will be required for the Straits of Florida tonight, with
advisories possibly needed in other zones as well. An intensifying
and expanding high pressure cell over the western North Atlantic
will induce a robust easterly wind surge during the next few days,
with wind speeds peaking around Monday night or early Tuesday.

Through 19/12Z, prevailing VFR conditions are expected at both EYW
and MTH. A few short-lived periods of MVFR ceiling and/or
visibilities in transient rain showers with light to moderate
precipitation are possible mainly before 18/20Z.



Data Collection......CLR

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