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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Key West, FL (KEY)

                            
512 
FXUS62 KKEY 190912
AFDKEY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
512 AM EDT Sun Aug 19 2018

.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
Along the island chain, skies are partly cloudy with temperatures
averaging in the lower 80s. Meanwhile, local radars are detecting
only isolated showers and thunderstorms mainly on the Straits of 
Florida. Surface wise, an extensive Western Atlantic ridge extends
across central Florida, resulting in winds varying from 1 knot at
both Carysfort reef light and Long Key Light to 8 knots 
elsewhere.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday night)
A deep troposheric anticyclone centered near Bermuda with a 
lengthy ridge reaching across the central portion of the Sunshine 
State will strengthen slightly over the next couple of days, 
before eroding late in this period. With the position of the 
ridge axis, our region will be subject to pockets of higher 
moisture migrating westward within a low and mid level easterly 
flow. Due to these subtle changes, will stream line low chance 
pops through the period due to timing uncertainty. Outside of any 
heavy downpours, low temperatures will range between 80 and 85 
degrees with high temperatures near or just above 90 degrees.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Saturday)
The persistent Western Atlantic ridge axis extending across the
central portion of the Florida peninsula will lift slowly
northward and drape across the Southeast United States by the end
of next week and into the weekend. Because of this, our area 
will lie on the southern periphery of the ridge axis resulting in
a fairly deep easterly flow. However, there are no significant 
low level undulations foreseen on the horizon. Regardless, ample 
low level moisture within an easterly flow combined with very warm
coastal waters should generate night time showers and isolated 
thunderstorms. In addition, with low level winds experiencing 
subtle increases and lulls, cells will track toward our area from
the large neighboring land masses along with mesoscale forcing in
the form of wet cloud line genes. Hence, low chance pops will be 
retained.

&&

.MARINE...
Gentle to moderate east to southeast winds with the higher winds
expected on the coastal waters south of the island chain are
anticipated for at least the next several days. 

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions will prevail at both EYW and MTH terminals. 
Additional moisture in the lower and middle levels will move into 
the region and provide for VCSH until the afternoon. Afternoon VCTS 
could bring brief MVFR ceilings and MVFR to IFR visibility 
reductions until late afternoon to early evening. Winds will remain 
east to southeast near 10 knots. 

&&

.CLIMATE...
In 1929, the daily record low temperature of 72F was last
recorded in Key West. Temperature records date back to 1872. 

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Key West  91  81  91  81 / 30 30 30 30 
Marathon  91  81  91  81 / 30 30 30 30 

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

Public/Marine/Fire...APA
Aviation/Nowcasts....Chesser

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