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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Key West, FL (KEY)

                            
000
FXUS62 KKEY 160943
AFDKEY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
443 AM EST Fri Nov 16 2018

.DISCUSSION...
A cold front pushed through the Florida Keys on Thursday. Behind
the front, northwest to north winds surged to near 25 knots, at
times gusting above 30 knots. Winds are not quite as intense at
this hour, although most locations are sustained above 20 knots. 
Dewpoints have steadily fallen since last evening, now nearing 60 
for most locations. Temperatures have been slow to fall, with the 
Lower Keys ranging from 73 to 75 degrees, with locations across 
the Upper Keys in the upper 60s. Infrared satellite imagery 
reveals a large expanse of low level stratus across the island 
chain, although there appears to be some breaks upstream. The KBYX
radar is echo free aside from a few drizzle streaks over the 
Straits of Florida.

.FORECAST...
Very few changes to the forecast reasoning this cycle.
Temperatures this morning should continue to fall after sunrise.
The Lower Keys should be near or just above 70, with locations
across the Upper Keys in the mid 60s. The lowest dewpoints and 
humidity since last spring will settle into the island chain this 
afternoon as the mainland drains. Highs should struggle to reach 
75. Rain chances have been removed. Skies will briefly clear in 
the lee of South Florida. Thereafter, high pressure centered over 
the northern Gulf Coast and the southeastern Unite States will 
persist. Moderate northeast to east breezes will occasionally peak
and lull over the next several days. Rain chances are slight 
through the forecast period, although there is some uncertainty to
the rain forecast Sunday through Monday night. There appears to 
be some evidence that the frontal zone will lift northward across 
the island chain. We increased rain chances to 30% on Monday to 
account for this pseudo warm frontal passage. A reinforcing shot 
of continental air is possible Tuesday night and Wednesday, just 
before the holiday.

&&

.MARINE...
Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for all coastal waters of
the Florida Keys. North winds 20 to 25 knots will prevail this 
morning, then diminish in the afternoon. Seas up to 7 to 8 feet 
across the deeper waters of the southeastern Gulf of Mexico and 
the Straits of Florida will prevail this morning. From synopsis, 
strong northerly breezes this morning will diminish this 
afternoon. Moderate northeast to east breezes will occasionally 
peak and lull, tonight through Tuesday, as high pressure persists 
over the southeastern United States.

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z Terminal Forecast Discussion: 

Expecting mainly VFR conditions to prevail through the forecast 
period with some MVFR ceiling impacts this morning. The edge of a 
broken/overcast deck is right along the Florida Keys, so expect 
clearing skies by mid-morning at MTH with clearing already beginning 
at EYW. Strong northerly winds persist today with gusts near 20 kts 
at MTH and over 20 kts at EYW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Key West  74  68  78  73 / -  10 10 20 
Marathon  74  67  78  72 / -  10 10 20 

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EST this morning for GMZ031>035-
     042>044-052>055-072>075.

&&

$$

Public/Marine/Fire...CLR
Aviation/Nowcasts....WLC
Data Collection......BT

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