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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Key West, FL (KEY)

                            
000
FXUS62 KKEY 221905
AFDKEY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
305 PM EDT Mon Oct 22 2018

.DISCUSSION...
Mean layer ridging centered over the Gulf of Mexico dominates the
local weather pattern. Heights rose at all significant levels on 
this morning's 12Z KKEY RAOB. Low level winds from the SFC 
through 8kft are mainly northeast to east (see KBYX VWP), very
similar to this morning's RAOB. Low level moisture was striated 
by hearty dry layers, and this is symptomatic of the waxing and
waning showers across the coastal waters. Updrafts have struggled
to maintain depth much of the afternoon. Surface winds at the
available marine observation platforms average 12 to 19 knots,
higher to the east, and lower to the west. Temperatures are in the
mid 80s with dewpoints in the lower 70s. 

.FORECAST...
Very little change to the parent weather pattern tonight through
Wednesday. Mean layer ridging will persist to our west, with a
steadily relaxing low level gradient. By Wednesday night, a
southern stream short wave and the mid-upper level remnants of 
Willa will morph across north-central Mexico, contributing to 
downstream pressure falls over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico.
This developing low pressure system will slide east across the
northern Gulf of Mexico Thursday and Thursday night, reaching east
of the Atlantic Bight Friday. Southwest to west winds will begin
to crank Friday afternoon an advance of the encroaching cyclonic
envelope. An airmass change is expected Saturday evening, possibly
heralding the first cold front of the season. Both available
global models indicate dewpoints will fall well into the mid 60s
this weekend, and may be followed up by a reinforcing cold front 
on Monday. Through the forecast period, increased rain chances 
tonight through Tuesday night, then only slight rain chances 
Wednesday through Friday. Increased rain chances Friday night and 
Saturday ahead of the front, then only slight chances thereafter. 

&&

.MARINE...
Moderate to occasional fresh breezes can be expected tonight. 
Breezes will diminish on Tuesday. Light to gentle breezes are 
expected Tuesday night through Thursday. An eastward moving low 
pressure system will develop over the northern Gulf of Mexico 
Thursday night and Friday, resulting in freshening southwest to 
west breezes Friday night and Saturday. A period of cooler, 
northwest to north breezes are expected across the Florida Keys as
early as Saturday night. 

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions are expected. Isolated to scattered showers are 
expected through the taf period with possibly a thunderstorm or 
two mixed in. Gusty E to ENE winds today will weaken overnight and
gradually become NE tomorrow. 

&&

.CLIMATE...
October 22, on this date in Key West history, in 2008, the daily 
record rainfall of 7.30" was recorded. Temperature records in Key 
West date back to 1872. 

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Key West  79  86  76  86 / 40 30 30 20 
Marathon  79  86  77  85 / 40 30 30 20 

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

Public/Marine/Fire...CLR
Aviation/Nowcasts....MM
Data Collection......BT

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