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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Key West, FL (KEY)

                            
000
FXUS62 KKEY 261329
AFDKEY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
929 AM EDT Sat May 26 2018

...HEAVY RAINFALL THROUGHOUT THE FLORIDA KEYS THIS WEEKEND...
...A FEW STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
KBYX detects widespread showers throughout the forecast area.
Skies over the island chain are cloudy. Winds over land are east
to southeast at 15 to 20 mph. C-MAN winds, on average, are east to
southeast near 20 knots. Temperatures are in the mid to upper 70s.

.SHORT TERM (This afternoon)...
Subtropical Storm Alberto, near the western tip of Cuba, will 
move northward into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico this 
afternoon. Three to seven inches of rain, with locally higher 
amounts, is possible this afternoon and tonight. A few strong 
thunderstorms may impact the Florida Keys this afternoon and 
tonight, producing wind gusts near 55 mph. Tropical storm 
conditions are possible on the coastal waters of the western 
Florida Straits and offshore Gulf of Mexico this afternoon and 
tonight. A wind advisory may be required for the Florida Keys 
tonight.

&&

.MARINE...
A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for all Keys coastal waters
this afternoon and tonight due to southeast surface winds
increasing to 25 to 30 knots. Tropical storm conditions are
possible on the coastal waters of the western Florida Straits and
offshore Gulf of Mexico this afternoon and tonight. A Small Craft
Advisory will likely be required for all Keys coastal waters
Sunday and Sunday night. A Small Craft Advisory will likely be 
required for the coastal waters of the Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic
Monday and Monday night. A Small Craft Advisory may be required 
for the coastal waters of Florida Bay Monday and Monday night. A
Small Craft Advisory may be required for the coastal waters of the
Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic Tuesday. No advisories expected
Tuesday night through at least Wednesday night. 

&&

.AVIATION...
Current VFR conditions are expected to deteriorate to MVFR/IFR after 
15z as rounds of strong showers and isolated thunderstorms ahead of 
Subtropical Storm Alberto impact the Keys. Southeasterly winds
will increase to 20 to 30 knots sustained around 21z, with gusts 
approaching 40 knots. Winds will gradually shift from southeast to
south through 27/12z.

&&


.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory for GMZ031>035-042>044-052>055-072>075.

&&

$$

Public/Marine/Fire...BS
Aviation/Nowcasts....MCLOVIN
Data Collection......DR

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