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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Key West, FL (KEY)

                            
000
FXUS62 KKEY 131600
AFDKEY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
1100 AM EST Tue Nov 13 2018

.DISCUSSION...In the middle and upper levels( 700-200 mb), latest
available GOES-R satellite imagery overlaid with model streamline
analysis as of 1000 am continues to indicate an unusually deep 
and sharp positively tilted full latitudinal trough with its axis 
situated from Ontario SSW to the Southern Baja Peninsula. 
Downstream of that, middle and upper ridging encompasses the 
Eastern CONUS and Canada with the center of deep ridging located 
in the NW Caribbean Sea south of Western Cuba. 

At the surface and in the lower to mid levels(Surface to 700 mb),
latest available GOES-R satellite imagery overlaid with marine 
and land surface observations and surface analysis, as of 900 am,
detail a strong cold front slicing towards Eastern North America
positioned from Western Quebec SSW to the Florida Panhandle to the
Southwest Gulf of Mexico, separating warm humid air, from dry
arctic air. As such, the 12Z sounding at Key West illustrated a 
gentle to moderate veering wind profile in the lower to mid 
troposphere, and fairly moist with PWAT between 1.75 to 2.00
inches. 

.CURRENTLY...As of 1000 am, skies are partly cloud across the
islands and surrounding waters. Temperatures in the upper 70s to
lower 80s with dewpoints into the mid 70s! C-man stations along
the Florida Reef are southeast at 10 to 15 knots, gusty in 
stronger showers. Island platforms are mostly 10 to 15 mph. Key
West radar and visibile satellite imagery continues to detect 
scattered showers within a confluent band across 
GMZ032,GMZ035,GMZ035,GMZ054, AND GMZ074. Only a few showers were 
detected elsewhere. 

.SHORT TERM...Rest of the Day and this evening, forecast 
soundings indicate that slight drying will occur in the middle 
levels. Despite that, confluent flow will result in scattered 
showers moving northward along some broken boundaries across the 
Lower Florida Keys and surrounding waters. This activity should 
become isolated by later today. Temperatures outside of showers 
will still be very warm, reaching the mid to upper 80s in a few 
spots. Only changes were earlier to separate out the Lower Florida
Keys from the Middle and Upper Keys due to slightly higher rain 
chances. Winds will once again decrease this afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...Weak high pressure to the north will allow good boating
conditions through this afternoon and evening, with gentle to
moderate breezes becoming gentle or light to gentle by days end
and this evening.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR conditions are expected to prevail at both KEYW
and KMTH through  the forecast period. A brief period of MVFR 
conditions will be possible at KEYW through about 16z as scattered
showers move through the Lower Keys. Southeasterly winds around 
12-15 kt will decrease to 7-9 kts by early afternoon. 

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

Public/Marine/Fire...Futterman
Aviation/Nowcasts....CB 
Upper Air/Data Collection......SD

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