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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Key West, FL (KEY)

                            
991 
FXUS62 KKEY 131115
AFDKEY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
715 AM EDT Mon Aug 13 2018

.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
Under mostly clear skies and light southeast winds, temperatures
are holding in the lower 80s in most communities in the Florida
Keys. Meanwhile, local radars are only detecting isolated showers
on the distant waters well northwest of the island chain and a few
showers on the Straits of Florida. Surface wise, a Western
Atlantic ridge axis is draped across the Florida Straits. On our
marine district, winds are southeast to south ranging from 3 knots
at Pulaski Shoal Light to 12 knots at both Alligator Reef Light
and Carysfort Reef Light. 

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday) 
In wake of a mid and upper level trough, large scale descent 
along with a low level Western Atlantic ridge axis (below 700 mb) 
building across our region, before lifting northward and into 
South Florida by the middle of this week. Meanwhile, a subtle low 
level trough associated with a sliver of higher moisture will 
migrate across our area on early Tuesday. Because of this, only 
isolated 20 percent pops will be inserted except With that said, 
outside of low chance pops on Tuesday, only isolated 20 percent 
pops which are slightly below climo will be inserted. High 
temperatures will average near 90 with overnight lows in the lower
80s. 

&&

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Sunday)
With the Western Atlantic ridge axis lifting northward, our region
will lie on the southern periphery resulting in a deepening
easterly flow. Within this trajectory, medium range guidance
indicates a few pockets of higher moisture but more noticeably
fairly large areas of (SAL) moving across our region. Until timing
can be pin pointed, will retain low chance pops. Highs will 
average in the lower 90s with overnight lows in the lower to mid 
80s can be expected. 

&&

.MARINE...
Light winds will slowly increase and become gentle to moderate by
the middle of the week, before slackening at the end of this week.
But as usual, winds and seas will be higher near showers and
thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions will prevail at the island terminals overnight. 
Surface winds will be light out of the southeast.

&&

.CLIMATE...
In 1911, the daily record low temperature of 70 degrees was 
recorded in Key West. Temperature records have been kept since
1872.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Key West  90  82  90  82 / 20 20 30 20 
Marathon  91  82  91  82 / 20 20 30 20 

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

Public/Marine/Fire...APA
Aviation/Nowcasts....Futterman

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