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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Key West, FL (KEY)

FXUS62 KKEY 210237

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
1037 PM EDT Sun May 20 2018

Currently - An Atlantic pressure ridge extends into the
southeastern United States, providing moderate to fresh east
southeast breezes across the local area. A subtle small scale
trough is working its way westward through the area. Meanwhile 
troughing remains aligned in the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Ample
moisture continues to stream through the Keys through the lower
and mid levels while drier air has moved in aloft. Healthy flow,
with an east southeast steering flow had earlier produced multiple
rounds of showers and a few thunderstorms across the broader area.
However, at this time, most activity is located far to the west
and not moving nearer. Only a few showers are located near the
Middle and Upper Keys.

Short Term Update - The rather tight pressure gradient will remain
in place through the overnight period, maintaining moderate to
fresh east southeast breezes. The healthy flow out of the east
southeast ensure that more maritime boundaries will migrate
towards the Florida Keys. However at this time, the environment
near the Florida Keys has been struggling to support significant
convective coverage and there appears to be a paucity of cuban
outflow. For this reason, will shave pops back a bit, but keep
them in the likely range. This is still well above normal for any
time of year. Expect overnight lows in the mid 70s with dew 
points in the lower 70s.


Atlantic high pressure will maintain a fairly tight pressure 
gradient and moderate to fresh breezes across Florida Keys waters.
An advisory remains in effect for the Florida Straits, while
cautions are in place on remaining waters. Scattered to numerous
showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected.


VFR conditions will prevail at the island terminals overnight.
It is likely that a round or two of sub VFR conditions will occur
due to passing maritime stratocumulus and occasional embedded
showers. Surface winds will be out of the east at 10 to 15 knots,
with gusts of 15 to 20 knots.


GM...Small Craft Advisory for GMZ052>055-072>075.



Data Collection......DR

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