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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Key West, FL (KEY)

                            
431 
FXUS62 KKEY 171857
AFDKEY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
257 PM EDT Fri Aug 17 2018

.DISCUSSION...
Subtropical ridging centered near Bermuda continues to drive 
moist, east to southeast breezes through the Florida Keys. The 
KBYX radar detects only isolated showers across the coastal 
waters. Satellite derived moisture estimates indicate a 
relatively dry airmass over the Keys and the Straits of 
Florida, corroborated by this morning's KKEY sampled PW total of
1.67". 

.FORECAST...
VIS/IR combo imagery highlight an increase in convection east of
the Bahamas, collocated with a stream of increased moisture and an
undulation in the ASCAT wind field. This feature appears to push
through late tonight through the first half of Saturday. Forecast
soundings indicate a dry slug will scour the profile Sunday 
night, warranting decreased rain chances. Through Monday night, 
east to southeast breezes will occasionally peak and lull, 
undulating around a mean wind speed of 10 to 15 knots. By Tuesday 
or Tuesday night, the low level ridge axis will begin to sag 
southward. Diminished breezes are expected Tuesday through Friday 
as the low level gradient collapses. Through the forecast period,
rain chances will hover between 20 and 40%. 

&&

.MARINE...
A high pressure system centered near Bermuda will persist tonight
and Saturday. This area of high pressure will drift northeast 
into the western North Atlantic Saturday night through Wednesday. 

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR expected to prevail much of the night; however, models indicate 
an uptick in moisture overnight, suggesting better coverage of 
showers in the continued steady east-southeast flow. Opted to keep 
VCSH in the TAFs at both terminals after 02Z.

&&

.CLIMATE...
In 1886, an unnamed Tropical Storm intensified into a Hurricane as it 
moved west northwest through the straits about 50 miles south of Key 
West, where a minimum pressure of 29.66" of mercury was recorded, 
along with a peak wind of 48 mph and numerous gusts to 60 mph. A man 
was killed when a building collapsed on Duval Street.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Key West  83  91  82  91 / 30 40 30 30 
Marathon  83  92  82  92 / 30 40 30 30 

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

Public/Marine/Fire...CLR
Aviation/Nowcasts/Climate....ULRICH
Data Collection......SD

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