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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Key West, FL (KEY)

                            
621 
FXUS62 KKEY 190628
AFDKEY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
228 AM EDT Sat Aug 19 2017

.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
KBYX detects widely separated showers and isolated thunderstorms
over the coastal waters of the Florida Straits. Elsewhere, KBYX
detects no precipitation echoes in the remainder of the forecast
area. Skies over the island chain are partly cloudy. Winds over
land are northeast to east at 10 to 15 mph. C-MAN winds, on
average, are east at 10 to 15 knots. Temperatures are in the lower
to mid 80s.

.SHORT TERM (Today through Monday)...
An upper level area of low pressure will move westward through the
southeastern Gulf of Mexico today. A tropical wave, currently 
over the Bahamas, will approach the Florida Keys tonight. This 
tropical wave will pass through the service area Sunday, before 
entering the southeastern Gulf of Mexico Sunday night and Monday.
Rain chances in the short term portion of the forecast will be 
highest Sunday due to the aforementioned tropical wave passing 
through the Florida Keys.

&&

.LONG TERM (Monday night through Friday)...
An upper level area of low pressure will move over the Florida
Keys Monday night, before weakening Tuesday. A trough of low
pressure should approach the Florida Keys Tuesday night. This
trough of low pressure should pass through the service area
Wednesday into Wednesday night. An Atlantic ridge of high pressure
will slowly build across South Florida Thursday through Friday. No
changes to the current long term portion of the forecast. 

&&

.MARINE...
Gentle northeast to east breezes will prevail on all Keys coastal
waters today. No advisories expected today through at least
Sunday. A Small Craft Advisory may be required for the coastal
waters of the Florida Straits Sunday night. A Small Craft Advisory
may be required for all Keys coastal waters Monday and Monday
night. No advisories expected Tuesday through at least Wednesday
night.

&&

.AVIATION...
Expecting mostly VFR conditions through at least 19/23z at both the 
Key West and Marathon International terminals. With that being said, 
light northeast to east winds will promote cloud line development,
and offer potential for MVFR to very brief IFR episodes at either
of the terminals after 19/12z. Outflow boundaries from
thunderstorms over South Florida and Cuba, combined with deep 
tropical moisture, will offer a round or two of showers and 
thunderstorms after 20/00z. Vicinity showers are in the terminal 
forecasts at this time, but will update when evidence and timing 
is revealed.

&&

.CLIMATE...
On this date in Florida Keys weather history, in 1924, 1.40 inches
of rain fell in Key West. This set the daily record for maximum
rainfall measured in Key West on August 19th, a record which still
stands 93 years later. Rainfall records at Key West date back to
1871.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Key West 92 82 90 83 / 30 50 60 30 
Marathon 93 82 92 82 / 30 50 60 30 

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

Public/Marine/Fire...BS
Aviation/Nowcasts....BWC

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