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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Key West, FL (KEY)

                            
410 
FXUS62 KKEY 211804
AFDKEY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
204 PM EDT Mon May 21 2018

.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
KBYX detects scattered showers and widely separated thunderstorms
throughout the forecast area. Skies over the island chain are
mostly cloudy. Winds over land are east to southeast at 15 to 20
mph. C-MAN winds, on average, are east to southeast near 20 knots.
Temperatures are in the lower 80s.

.SHORT TERM (Tonight through Wednesday night)...
A trough of low pressure will progress westward over the northern
Gulf coast tonight. An Atlantic ridge of high pressure will extend
across the Southeastern United States Tuesday through Wednesday,
before shifting southward down the Florida peninsula Wednesday
night. Rain chances in the short term portion of the forecast will
remain well above normal for this time of year. 

&&

.LONG TERM (Thursday through Monday)...
The aforementioned Atlantic ridge of high pressure will retreat
eastward Thursday and Thursday night. An area of low pressure may
develop over the northwestern Caribbean Sea Friday. This area of 
low pressure could progress northward Friday night through the
upcoming weekend. Forecast uncertainty is high Friday through
Saturday night. Rain chances in the long term portion of the 
forecast will be highest Thursday through Saturday. 

&&

.MARINE...
A Small Craft Advisory will be in effect for all Keys coastal
waters tonight due to sustained east to southeast winds increasing
to 20 to 25 knots. A Small Craft Advisory will likely be required
for the coastal waters of the Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic
Tuesday. A Small Craft Advisory may be required for the coastal
waters of Florida Bay Tuesday. A Small Craft Advisory will likely
be required for the coastal waters of the Gulf of Mexico and
Atlantic Tuesday night. No advisories expected Wednesday through
at least Friday. A Small Craft Advisory may be required for the
coastal waters of the Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic Friday night. A
Small Craft Advisory may be required for all Keys coastal waters
Saturday and Saturday night.

&&

.AVIATION...
Occasional MVFR conditions will remain a possibility due to passing 
shower/thunderstorm activity through at least 22/18z at EYW and
MTH. Expect sustained southeasterly winds at 12 to 15 knots to
increase to 15 to 20 knots around 22/00z, with gusts near 25 
knots through the terminal forecast period. 

&&

.CLIMATE...
On this date in Keys Weather History, in 1935, the daily record high 
temperature of 91 degrees was recorded in Key West. Temperature 
records for Key West date back to 1872. 

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Key West  75 83 76 84 / 80 70 60 50 
Marathon  76 85 76 86 / 80 70 60 50 

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory for GMZ031>035-042>044-052>055-072>075.

&&

$$

Public/Marine/Fire...BS
Aviation/Nowcasts....MCLOVIN
Data Collection......BT

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