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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Key West, FL (KEY)

FXUS62 KKEY 170218

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
1018 PM EDT Thu Aug 16 2018

There have been only isolated small showers this evening confined
moist to the Atlantic, Gulf and Bay waters offshore from the
middle and upper Keys. There have been only a few lightning 
strikes with a surge in one cell in the Straits a short while ago.
Otherwise, under clear to partly cloudy skies with a gentle to
moderate east to southeast breeze, temperatures along the Keys
island chain are in the mid 80s.

The evening local sounding shows the gentle to moderate east to
southeast breezes continue well into the mid levels. But the
airmass has dried through that depth over the past twelve hours.
And there is a resistant layer aloft, thus the lack of significant 
echoes currently on KBYX Doppler radar. There is the probability
of a few showers and maybe even a thunderstorm overnight, but
these should remain very widely spaced with the current parameters
in place. The afternoon zone forecast has the expected conditions
advertised well through the overnight period. No update is planned
at this time. 


A loop of the VWP products from the KBYX radar indicated a brief 
lull in the lowest level winds (1 and 2 kft) when compared to the 
evening sounding, but they have rebounded over the past hour or 
so. As with the zones, the afternoon coastal waters forecast has 
the overnight conditions advertised well, so expect no significant
changes on the upcoming coastal waters update. 


VFR continued expected overnight with only a slight chance for 
passing showers producing short lived MVFR conditions.
Surface winds will be out of the east at around 10 knots.





Data Collection......SD

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