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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Jackson, KY (JKL)

FXUS63 KJKL 190743

National Weather Service Jackson KY
343 AM EDT Mon Aug 19 2019

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 343 AM EDT MON AUG 19 2019

Available shortly...

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 343 AM EDT MON AUG 19 2019

The start of the extended period will become more active overtime,
as a cold front approaches and moves across the Ohio Valley. The
question for the period will be the progression of the front and
subsequently the amount of PoPs that come along with that. The
models suggest the better chances of seeing storms is now
Thursday, as frontal movement south is slower overall. There will
also be a bit better connection to the right entrance region of a
upper level jet progressing into the Northeast. The models are
struggling with consistency from run to run on how far south the
frontal boundary makes it, and the ECMWF has been slower before
the latest 00Z run opted to take it further into the Tennessee
Valley. Given the uncertainty couldnt see being too aggressive
in bringing drier air in area wide to end the week and also
typically these fronts struggle to make it south given the time of
year. However, did keep a good portion of the Bluegrass dry for
Saturday as a result of the latest guidance. By Sunday this
feature may actually shift back as an inverted surface trough, and
lead to some PoPs in the southeast portions of Kentucky at least.
It will be another warm day on Wednesday, but shouldnt be as
warm temperature wise given the increasing moisture. However, the
increasing moisture will make it steamy, but this will also depend
on cloud coverage. The remainder of the period will come in closer
to normal or perhaps just below for this time of year, with more
clouds and potential for storms.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)

VFR conditions will prevail through Monday night. Some patchy 
river valley fog will likely bring MVFR or worse conditions east 
of I-75 through 13z; however no TAF sites will be affected by
this, due to an increase in cloud cover and lower crossover 
temperatures achieved Sunday afternoon. During the day on Monday,
some diurnally driven cumulus at 4-6k feet agl is expected, before
diminishing by dusk once again. South to southwest winds will 
average around 5 kts or less through the period.