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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Jackson, KY (JKL)

FXUS63 KJKL 201150

National Weather Service Jackson KY
750 AM EDT Fri Sep 20 2019

Issued at 750 AM EDT FRI SEP 20 2019

Isolated showers/sprinkles were occurring over the region early
this morning. Have expanded a mention of sprinkles areawide for
today. A few thundershowers have also been noted over LMK's area.
However, it still looks like anything more than sprinkles will be
so isolated that it isn't worthy of including measurable precip in
the official forecast for JKL's area.


.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 431 AM EDT FRI SEP 20 2019

Early this morning, surface high pressure was situated just east 
of the Appalachians. Flow on its western side was bringing warm/moist
advection in the lower levels, resulting in an overall increase 
in clouds early this morning. Radar has even shown a few 
sprinkles. Models also suggest spotty light precip will occur into
the day. However, forecast soundings look like convection will be
capped around 10K ft. All things considered, have used a chance 
of sprinkles in the forecast over a good part of the forecast area
into today. By this evening, the moisture looks to be poorer, and
lapse rates above the moist layer weaken, and a dry forecast 

The surface high to our east is forecast to remain nearly 
stationary through Saturday, while an upper level high strengthens
over the southeast CONUS. We will remain cutoff from any
meaningful moisture advection, with flow off the gulf being
further west. This will result in dry weather locally, with  
temperatures creeping higher.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 333 AM EDT FRI SEP 20 2019

An upper level ridge will be in place across the southeast US
extending northward into the Ohio Valley to start the long term
period. Meanwhile there is an upper level wave and cold front that
will progress toward the Ohio Valley in the Central Plains into
the Great Lakes. This feature will move into potions of the Ohio
Valley on Sunday and Progress across eastern Kentucky by Monday.
This will finally break down the ridging, but the front will be
weak leading to meager amounts of rainfall. Given this have kept
to the PoPs in the slight to chance range at best Sunday night
into Monday, and we could see a isolated thunderstorm at best
given the lack of better instability. In the wake of the front 
high pressure and upper level ridging return bringing dry weather 
back into the picture through the remainder of the period. There 
is some disagreement in the models toward Thursday, with a 
somewhat wetter solution from the GFS, but for now will lean 
toward the dry NBM.

The afternoon high temperatures will generally run above normal
Sunday and again Wednesday through Thursday, but closer to normal
Monday and Tuesday with the passage of the front. The cooler and
dryer air ushered in by the front will lead to cooler starts
Tuesday and Wednesday morning, with lows in the lower to mid 50s.
Wednesday morning could be cooler depending on mixing Tuesday, but
a weak upper level wave could bring enough high clouds to mitigate
the lower temperatures as well. 


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)

VFR conditions and winds less than 10 kts are forecast through 
the period. A few very isolated light showers will affect a few
locations today.