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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Jackson, KY (JKL)

                            
000
FXUS63 KJKL 162248
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
648 PM EDT Fri Aug 16 2019

.UPDATE...
Issued at 648 PM EDT FRI AUG 16 2019

The forecast remains on track early this evening. Some high 
clouds are moving across eastern Kentucky, with current 
temperatures in the lower to mid 80s. Some areas in the far east 
are already in the upper 70s, however. With surface high pressure 
to the south and to the northeast of the state, not expecting any 
shower or storm activity through the evening and into the 
overnight. The main concern for the overnight will be fog 
development, but this will be mainly concentrated in the river 
valleys. A new ZFP was not needed at this time. Updates have been 
sent to NDFD and to the web.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 330 PM EDT FRI AUG 16 2019

19z sfc analysis shows high pressure over Kentucky keeping the 
weather quiet and skies mostly clear. Some high clouds drifted in 
from the northwest through the day and have been occasionally 
moving through the CWA. These did not slow the temperature rise 
too much with readings reaching the mid and upper 80s most places 
while dewpoints have held mainly in the mid 60s. Winds have 
remained rather light today - generally from the northwest to 
north. 

The models are in pretty good agreement aloft through the short
term portion of the forecast. They all depict fairly fast flow
through the Ohio Valley on the southern fringes of a very broad
trough. There is a dampening short wave that passes through 
Kentucky tonight in this west to east mid level flow. Heights will
then slowly climb through the day Saturday and into Sunday 
morning - stronger in the ECMWF than the GFS, but not by much.
Given the modest agreement have favored a blended model solution 
as reflected by the NBM. 

Sensible weather will feature just some high clouds around tonight
with lighter amounts of fog expected in the river valleys 
compared to this morning. For Saturday, conditions will likely be 
similar to today though with with a bit more clouds. Showers or 
even a thunderstorm cannot be ruled out, though, as activity 
spawning to the west could make it into eastern Kentucky before 
dying off that afternoon. Most likely the JKL CWA will stay dry, 
though with temperatures climbing a notch higher than today. That 
night should also be similar to tonight with clouds helping to 
limit fog formation and a touch of ridge to valley temperatures 
differences after sunset under partly cloudy to mostly clear 
skies. 

Did use the NBM as the starting point for all the short term grids
with some adjustments for terrain differences both nights and a
tempering of the highs on Saturday from guidance owing to more 
cloud cover. For PoPs, kept them just below 15% Saturday afternoon
in a nod to the potential of dying convection - slightly above 
the guidance. 

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 300 PM EDT FRI AUG 16 2019

The overall pattern in the extended will be for above normal 
temperatures and almost daily rain chances. The exception to rain 
will be Sunday, when we can expect hot and humid yet dry conditions. 
After that, a series of weak weather systems aloft, and a nearly 
stalled out frontal boundary, will bring chances of showers and 
thunderstorms to eastern Kentucky each day next week. The best 
chances for rain will be Wednesday and Wednesday night, as a front 
gets hung up over the region.

Temperatures are forecast to run above normal across the area, with 
daily highs expected to max out around 90s most of the period. We 
should see a nice cool down toward the end of the period, as cooler 
settles over the area north of the aforementioned slow moving front. 
The coolest day next week would be Thursday, as highs that day are 
only forecast to make it into the low to mid 80s. Nightly lows will 
be in the 60s. 

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 145 PM EDT FRI AUG 16 2019

Outside of some river valley fog late tonight, expect the area to
stay VFR through the TAF forecast period. The fog should stay out 
of TAF sites tonight given lower cross over temperatures, but will
include a brief tempo at a couple of them between 9 and 12z. Any 
fog then clears off quickly Saturday morning. Winds will remain
light through the period.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...CGAL
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...KAS/GREIF