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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Jackson, KY (JKL)

FXUS63 KJKL 221932

National Weather Service Jackson KY
332 PM EDT Mon Apr 22 2019

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 332 PM EDT MON APR 22 2019

Surface high pressure is just off to our east and upper ridging is
across the area. This will result in mostly clear skies tonight. 
There will be very light winds across the area to start the night,
with dewpoints as low as the lower 40s. Winds will gradually 
increase from the south towards daybreak, but valleys should 
decouple this evening and remain decoupled through the night. 
This will lead to a ridge valley temperature difference with 
overnight lows. Will forecast overnight lows ranging from the 
middle 40s in the colder valleys to the mid 50s on the thermal 
belt on the ridges.

On Tuesday a cold front will approach from the north as a mid
level short wave moves across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley.
Southwest winds will increase ahead of the front, and temperatures
should top out in the upper 70s to lower 80s in most areas. With
the northern stream short wave, and likely greatest instability
developing in the north, could see some thunderstorms late Tuesday
afternoon into the evening, mainly across the northern part of the
forecast area. MUCape could approach 1300 J/kg3 in the north. The
best dynamics remain north of the forecast area, but an isolated 
strong to severe will be possible in the far north per the 
latest SPC Day 2 outlook. It appears the cold front will stall 
across the area Tuesday night, with a lingering chance for 

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 332 PM EDT MON APR 22 2019

Split stream flow looks to dominate across the U.S. through the
long term portion of the forecast. At the start of the period a
northern stream shortwave and associated surface low will be 
north of New England in Canada, with a trailing cold front 
extending back southeast across our area. As noted in the short 
term portion of the forecast discussion, the front looks to stall 
across our area Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. The front 
will likely waver across the area as a southern stream short wave 
pushes east across the southern U.S. from Wednesday into Thursday.
As a result there will be a continued threat of showers into 
Friday. Some thunderstorms are also possible Thursday into 
Thursday night as the front makes a final push southeast across 
the area.
There is some model disagreement on how much the next northern 
stream wave will interact with the already mentioned southern 
stream system, but it does appear there will be some interaction 
and the surface front will push south of the area on Friday. This
will result in improving weather from northwest to southeast on 
Friday, and fair weather for the areas on Saturday. By the end of
the weekend another northern stream system will be moving across 
the Great Lakes region, with another front pushing across the Ohio
Valley. This will bring another chance of showers and
thunderstorms for Sunday. With no big push of cold air in the
forecast, temperatures will remain either near or above normal
through the forecast period.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)

High pressure will continue to control the weather across eastern
Kentucky into Tuesday. As a result, VFR conditions with mostly 
clear skies and dry conditions will prevail through the forecast 
TAF period. Winds will be light through tonight, but winds will 
begin to increase from the southwest on Tuesday as a cold front 
approaches the area from the northwest. Showers and a few 
thunderstorms will be possible Tuesday night as the front pushes
into the area.