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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Jackson, KY (JKL)

                            
752 
FXUS63 KJKL 171055
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
655 AM EDT Tue Jul 17 2018

.UPDATE...
Issued at 649 AM EDT TUE JUL 17 2018

The frontal boundary is slowly pressing southeast toward eastern
Kentucky. We continue to remain in a moist environment this
morning and convection continues to develop across portions of the
region this morning. Updated POPs to better represent the current
trend but unfortunately CAMs provided little help. Otherwise more
minor updates to the grids needed at this time.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 357 AM EDT TUE JUL 17 2018

The morning surface analysis suggests the cold front is creeping
in and near the Ohio River region this morning. Overall the
morning convection is driven more by some weaker upper level waves
passing through the region. These showers have been fairly shallow
this morning and this is leading to greater precipitation rates 
in the stronger showers. Therefore you could pick up a quick inch 
out of some of these showers, but they have fortunately been 
hitting areas that were not hit as hard yesterday so far. This 
front will be the primary player through the day into the later 
afternoon hours, but the overall better chances of POPs will be in
the far east and southeast areas today. Areas nearer the 
Bluegrass may become dry through the late morning and afternoon as
the better lift progresses south and east. The short term models 
have struggled with the placement of this mornings convection but 
was able to lean some what toward the HIRES-ARW with 
modifications.

This front will progress south of the region through the evening
and tonight. This will usher in a drier airmass as high pressure
builds across the Upper Midwest and Great lakes regions. Given
this do begin clearing skies and introduce at least some patchy
fog into the grids. The coverage will probably depend on mixing
through the night. Then we see a dry day on Wednesday as the
surface high continues to build across the Ohio Valley and Great
Lakes regions. However, we could see a few flat cumulus clouds in
a shallow layer of moisture seen in the soundings by Wednesday
afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 406 AM EDT TUE JUL 17 2018

Wednesday night into Thursday will bring a continued period of drier 
weather to eastern Kentucky courtesy of shortwave ridging aloft and 
downslope flow on the backside of a departing surface ridge. 
Afternoon highs will heat up into the upper 80s Thursday as H85 
temperatures creep toward the 18-20C mark and dewpoints largely 
remain in the low-mid 60s.

Increasing moisture and dewpoints will surge back into eastern 
Kentucky Thursday night into Friday as a warm front lifts through in 
response to an upper low migrating from Minnesota/Wisconsin into the 
Great Lakes. This system will be rather dynamic for mid-summer, 
exhibiting a 40-45 knot H85 jet attendant to a surface low across 
the lower Ohio Valley. Speed divergence near the left exit region of 
an upper jet streak will aid in large scale forcing for ascent 
Friday evening into Saturday, bringing the greatest chances of 
showers and thunderstorms across eastern Kentucky. Rain chances will 
continue through the weekend, with thunder becoming less likely 
Sunday as the axis of cyclonic flow pivots overhead and instability 
becomes tough to come by in the low-mid levels. Not overly concerned 
with the potential for widespread flooding at this time given the 
closed low diving south into the Ohio and possibly Tennessee 
Valleys, negating deeper/richer southwestern originating moisture
advecting into the Commonwealth. With the bonafide rain chances 
through the weekend, temperatures will be cooler with highs in the
upper 70s to lower 80s both Saturday and Sunday.

Backing flow looks to take shape for next week in wake of the 
departing upper low and downstream of ridging centered near the 
Desert Southwest to the Four Corners region. A system skirting 
through southern Canada may attempt to play into the local synoptic 
picture through early-mid week, potentially producing an uptick in 
shower/storm chances. Nonetheless, a warmup back to the mid 80s 
looks likely at this time.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
ISSUED AT 655 AM EDT TUE JUL 17 2018

The TAFs are beginning from IFR to VFR this morning with a
combination of showers, low CIGs and fog. We will see improvements
in the TAFs in terms of fog through the morning. However, this 
morning convection continues to increase across portions of the 
region and went shra vcts to handle it this morning. A cold front 
will drop south across the region this afternoon and we will see 
improving CIGs through the afternoon into the evening. There is
the potential for fog tonight and therefore added some MVFR at
some of the TAF sites. The winds will remain light through the 
period, but will shift from the southwest to the northwest by this
afternoon and evening with the passage of the cold front.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DJ
SHORT TERM...DJ
LONG TERM...GUSEMAN
AVIATION...DJ