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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Jackson, KY (JKL)

                            
000
FXUS63 KJKL 161814
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
114 PM EST Fri Nov 16 2018

.UPDATE...
Issued at 114 PM EST FRI NOV 16 2018

The forecast is on track so far this afternoon. Merely ingested 
and blended current observations. Monitoring as some lower clouds 
make their way into the northern Bluegrass. Other than this, 
surface high pressure building into the region will continue to 
keep the this afternoon and evening dry.

UPDATE Issued at 1047 AM EST FRI NOV 16 2018

Low clouds have scattered out across much of the area, with
current temperatures ranging from the mid 30s to lower 40s.
Forecast highs look on track today, and have mainly freshened up
the diurnal curve to account for the latest trends in 
observations. Mostly sunny skies will reign for most places south 
of I-64 through the day, with some return of clouds for areas 
north of I-64 a bit later. This is well covered already in the 
forecast, so no other changes are planned at this time. 

UPDATE Issued at 710 AM EST FRI NOV 16 2018

Hourly grids were updated based on recent observations. The
clearing line continues to progress east, gradually and is
generally on schedule form the previous forecast as it is near the
I 75 corridor at this time. A few slick spots cannot be ruled out
so the SPS remains valid and this threat is also covered by a
GNOW. 

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 425 AM EST FRI NOV 16 2018

Early this morning, a broad trough extended from Central
Canada/Hudson Bay Region into the Great Lakes and Northeast Conus
while a ridge was near the Pacific Coast. An upper level low was 
moving through the Mid Atlantic/south central PA area with height
rises occurring across the Lower OH Valley with shortwave ridging
working into East KY. Another shortwave was upstream moving 
across the western Great Lakes region. At the surface, a Nor 
Easter was moving up the Eastern Seaboard and was centered in the 
vicinity of NYC while high pressure centered over the Lower MS 
Valley/northern Gulf of Mexico was nosing into the Commonwealth. 
Low level moisture remains across the region in the wake of the 
departing upper level and surface area of low pressure. However, 
clearing has been gradually working across western and parts of 
Central KY and middle TN with the clearing line currently 
approaching Wayne County and the Lake Cumberland Region.

Today, heights will continue to rise across the region, especially
once the shortwave moving across the Great Lakes reaches the
eastern Great Lakes toward midday with surface high pressure
continuing to move in as well. The clearing line should gradually
work across the area reaching I 75 near sunrise and WV border by
11 AM. Some additional shallow cumulus may form today with daytime
heating, especially in the north as the Great Lakes shortwave
passes to the north. However, temperatures will be milder today
compared to Thursday in most locations. 

Tonight and Saturday, another upstream shortwave that will have
moved from the northern Rockies into the northern Plains will 
reach the Great Lakes in a quasi zonal pattern from the Plains 
into the eastern Conus. A corresponding cold front will drop south
of the Great Lakes by the end of the period. Surface high 
pressure will keep precipitation free weather through the period.
Models continue to have a very moist lower levels tonight as 
temperatures cool. A bit of mixiness in the boundary layer could 
favor some stratus or stratocu development, but fog cannot be 
ruled out either given recent precipitation and the wet fall we 
have experienced. Some locations could have fog while temperatures
a bit below freezing so patchy freezing fog cannot be ruled out 
in addition to the patch fog. Surface temperatures will have 
warmed into the 40s today so at this point it appears that if 
freezing fog were to develop in a few areas, the impact would be 
quite limited. Temperatures will remain below normal with lows 
around 30 or in the lower 30s tonight before moderating to the 
upper 40s far north to the upper 50s far south on Saturday.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 421 AM EST FRI NOV 16 2018

A fairly benign zonal flow pattern will be in place to start the 
period on Saturday night. A shortwave will then move eastward from 
the Central Plains, reaching KY by Monday as it becomes absorbed 
back into the deepening longwave pattern by the afternoon. KY will 
then find itself in the axis of a deamplified trough through 
Tuesday, at which point strong NW flow will take hold with rising 
heights expected through the end of the forecast period.

At the surface, high pressure will be moving east of the region 
Saturday night as a elongated cold front begins to shift SE towards 
the state from the NE. A secondary low is expected to develop along 
this front by Sunday morning as it traverses the state during the 
day, and exits by the evening. Precip chances are expected to 
accompany this front, though best chances may actually be behind the 
frontal passage Sunday night into Monday accompanying more the 500mb 
shortwave, thereby making it more of an anafront situation. Either 
way, the line of precip associated with this system should be fairly 
light as it moves through with the latest GFS soundings a very 
shallow llvl layer of moisture associated with this system. 
Furthermore, the moisture profile should remain above freezing 
throughout the duration of the rainfall before the stronger NW flow 
and colder temps make it into the region. As such, no longer have 
snowfall mentioned in the forecast with this event (give or take a 
pixel or two of mixed potentially in the north or high terrain). 

By late Monday night and through the day Tuesday, another area of 
high pressure will take hold from the SW, passing across the region 
Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, but remaining in control to 
finish out the forecast period. Mostly clear skies and light winds 
are on tap during this period, leading to maximum radiational 
cooling overnight with lows in the upper 20s to low 30s, with 
coldest temps in the deeper valleys. Southerly return flow will also 
be present on the backside of this system, helping to boost temps 
into the upper low to mid 50s during the afternoon on Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 114 PM EST FRI NOV 16 2018

With surface high pressure building into the region this 
afternoon, drier conditions as well as mostly clear skies were 
observed at TAF issuance. However, lower clouds have begun to move
into the northern Bluegrass. These clouds are expected to 
progress further south, pushing CIGs to MVFR for SYM and SJS. JKL 
CIGs will lower as well, but will remain VFR. Fog also is possible
in the west tomorrow morning. This will lead to lower 
visibilities for SME and SYM, but any fog will dissipate around 
14Z. VFR conditions will return for mid-morning and persist 
through the remainder of the TAF period. Westerly winds will range
from 5 to 12 knots through this afternoon, with some wind gusts 
in the Bluegrass area. Winds will then decrease into the evening, 
with light winds becoming southerly through the rest of the TAF 
period.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...CGAL
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...CGAL