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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Jacksonville, FL (JAX)

                            
000
FXUS62 KJAX 211402
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
1002 AM EDT Sat Sep 21 2019

...ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES TO BRING HIGH SURF TODAY AND HIGH RISK
OF RIP CURRENTS THROUGH SUNDAY. . .

...ELEVATED WATER LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TODAY ON THE ST JOHNS RIVER 
BASIN...

.UPDATE...
Onshore flow will continue today. High Pressure centered over the
Carolinas will continue to move slowly to the east, bringing 
continued onshore flow with breezy conditions and a few passing 
showers, mainly for coastal locations. Very dry air noted in the 
12Z JAX sounding above 850 millibars will help limit the coverage 
of any showers to locations east of I-95 to the beaches. 

Precipitable water values of less than an inch over interior 
portions of SE GA helped to drop low temps down to the mid 60s 
early this morning in contrast to low to mid 70s along the 
immediate coast where St Simons Island only fell to 74F.
 
Stratocumulus clouds associated with the easterly onshore flow
will help keep high temps down along coastal locations with high 
temps reaching the lower 80s at the coast with mid to upper 80s 
along and west of I-95 for NE FL and SE GA. Winds will remain 
slightly elevated at 15-20 mph and gusts to 25-30 mph with 
diminishing winds farther inland.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions expected with occasional MVFR CIGS/VSBYS possible 
as the onshore easterly flow brings a few brief showers mainly 
confined to coastal TAF sites SSI,SGJ, and CRG. Winds will be 
highest at these TAF sites, ranging 10-15 knots with gusts to 
20-25 knots. Lighter winds expected at interior locations.

&&

.MARINE...
Strong high pressure to the north of the coastal waters will
maintain a strong easterly flow across the waters today with a 
gradually relaxing flow on Sunday into Monday. High pressure will
drop south over the waters early next week with light winds. A 
long period easterly swell will continue to move into the area 
from several tropical systems over the western Atlantic. 

Rip Currents: High Risk of rip currents will continue today along
the coast due to strong Northeast Flow combining with long period
swells that will impact the surf zone through the afternoon. The
morning surf reports at NE FL beaches still were in the 5-7 ft
range, so continuing the High Surf Advisory for now.

Coastal Flood: Water will continue to be elevated in the St Johns
river basin reaching action levels, but remaining below minor
flood for most portions of the river. The exception will be the
middle St Johns basin along Dunns Creek. Monday, the pressure 
gradient should relax, allowing onshore winds to become lighter.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  88  61  88  62 /  10   0   0   0 
SSI  83  70  84  70 /  10  10  10   0 
JAX  85  65  86  67 /  10  10  10   0 
SGJ  84  72  84  70 /  20  10  10  10 
GNV  87  64  89  64 /  10   0   0   0 
OCF  89  65  90  65 /  10   0   0   0 

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through Sunday evening for Coastal Duval-
     Coastal Flagler-Coastal Nassau-Coastal St. Johns.

     High Surf Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for Coastal 
     Duval-Coastal Flagler-Coastal Nassau-Coastal St. Johns.

     Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for Coastal 
     Flagler-Inland Flagler-Putnam.

GA...High Rip Current Risk until 9 PM EDT this evening for Coastal 
     Camden-Coastal Glynn.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT Sunday for Coastal waters 
     from Altamaha Sound to Fernandina Beach FL out 20 NM-
     Coastal waters from Fernandina Beach to St. Augustine FL 
     out 20 NM-Coastal waters from St. Augustine to Flagler 
     Beach FL out 20 NM-Waters from Altamaha Sound GA to 
     Fernandina Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Fernandina 
     Beach to St. Augustine FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from St. 
     Augustine to Flagler Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$

Hess/Chaney/Bricker